Hal Finney basically described the STRC endgame in 2010.
Bitcoin becomes high-powered money.
Financial institutions issue credit and digital cash on top of it.
Bitcoin settles the base layer.
The market prices different issuers by reserve quality, risk, and redemption confidence.
That is not a betrayal of Bitcoin.
That is Bitcoin eating banking from underneath.
The problem with Elon's vision is that it sounds great, right?
You become a millionaire without having to work a single day. People imagine themselves sailing around in the Caribbean sipping margaritas.
But the reality is you become a zoo animal, and turn government and 6 tech overlords into God.
And you are subjected to their whims and they will make your monthly food check conditional on unflinching compliance.
Elon promises a "Universal High Income" for everyone. Let's suppose that means $10K per month for 100 million Americans.
Here's the math:
100 million people ร $10,000/month ร 12 months = $12 trillion per year.
To put that in context, total federal spending in fiscal year 2024 was roughly $6.75 trillion, and total federal revenue was about $4.9 trillion. So this single program would cost nearly twice the entire existing federal budget and about 2.5ร all federal tax revenue. It would roughly triple total government spending overnight.
U.S. GDP is roughly $29 trillion. A $12 trillion UBI program would equal about 41% of total GDP -- being directed as cash transfers to a subset of the population. For comparison, all current federal transfer payments (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veterans' benefits, etc.) combined run around $4โ5 trillion.
The M2 money supply (cash, checking deposits, savings, money market funds) sits at roughly $21โ22 trillion. If the program were funded by money creation rather than taxes, injecting $12 trillion per year would expand M2 by roughly 55% in the first year alone. Even if a portion were funded through taxation (which just redistributes existing money), the sheer scale makes it nearly impossible to fund without massive monetary expansion.
The inflationary pressure would be enormous, for a few reinforcing reasons:
First, demand-side shock -- putting $10,000/month into 100 million hands would massively increase consumer spending, but the economy's productive capacity (factories, housing, workers, supply chains) can't scale anywhere near that fast. When far more dollars chase roughly the same quantity of goods, prices spike.
Second, labor supply contraction -- $120,000/year tax-free would exceed the median U.S. household income (~$80,000). Many workers would reduce hours or exit the workforce entirely, shrinking the supply side at the exact moment demand is surging. That's a double squeeze on prices.
Third, velocity effects -- lower-income recipients tend to spend transfer income quickly, so the velocity of money would increase, amplifying the inflationary effect beyond what the raw money supply numbers suggest.
A rough (and conservative) estimate: mainstream quantity-theory-of-money reasoning would suggest that a 55% expansion in money supply, combined with rising velocity and falling output, could produce annual inflation well into the double digits -- plausibly 30โ50%+ in the first year or two, potentially accelerating into a hyperinflationary spiral if sustained. Historical parallels (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela) all involved governments printing money at scales far smaller relative to GDP, and still produced catastrophic inflation.
So no, Elon doesn't understand economics. And yes, a "Universal High Income" would quickly lead to hyperinflation and currency collapsing, thrusting almost everyone into extreme poverty.
@BitcoinCom Borrowed space on the king's land never belonged to you in the first place. For such a thing to happen to a Bitcoin channel is, to say the least, ironic.
@MasterMyBudget@CommunityFlare It's probably just going to be a governance token, with some percentage of a proposal decision weighted towards points. Thereby giving early stakers some "say" in how the protocol develops.
@FlareNetworks@Firelightfi
Year 2050
Kid-Dad, what's a bank?
Dad-Turns on Schoolhouse Rock '26:
๐ถ "Stake your XRP, you'll plainly see,
stXRP means liquidity.
No need to wait, or hesitate.
You can buy & sell, or transfer & trade.
Take it out anytime, and you still get paid!"๐ถ