today, narrative matters more than fundamentals
why? did we get more stupid? did we get more irrational? was it always like this? not really
surprisingly, it's explained entirely by physics, and it's perfectly rational
it has nothing to do with "making it out of the permanent underclass" or gambling culture
those are just consequences of the cause
same with TradFi becoming more and more degenerate like crypto, the rise of WSB, etc
the real underlying reason is: connectivity
connectivity explains all of it
airplanes increased the connectivity of the world
a virus that would have stayed local can now propagate throughout the entire Earth (see: COVID)
the internet increased the connectivity of the world's information
rumours used to stay local, now they go viral in seconds and cause worldwide protests and violence
but what the internet did to information, crypto does to value
crypto in its most basic sense turns information into value
hence, crypto increases the connectivity of the world's value
but what does this have to do with physics?
simply, the more connected the system, the more dominant the fastest-spreading element becomes
narrative dominates fundamentals not because people are more retarded now, but because narratives are the fastest-spreading virus in an increasingly more connected graph
fundamentals require time; time to build, time to prove, time to measure, etc
narratives don't! humans naturally understand stories much faster โ especially surface-level ones โ and as a narratives spread much faster
so the reason that stocks are becoming more like memes and the reason that literal memecoins are being traded with trillions in value is not because people are dumber, it's because information and value are now more connected, just like the internet
it's also why you get "hypergamblification", because narratives spreading fast naturally leads to volatility, which in turn leads to ecosystems of products like perps, shitcoins, and prediction markets to take advantage of them
anyway it's 7am my time and I haven't slept and perhaps none of this makes sense
๐จ Inspired by @rajgokal
Everyone sleeping on DAT/ETF Effect for SOL
https://t.co/ZSn8Sx3TxV
Big players enter the fray - Cantor Fitzgerald, Pantera raising $1.25B
$2.8B buy pressure in last 48hrs
ETH ETFs = $27.8B inflows since June
Imagine that rotation into SOL ๐
Let's work the #'s! ๐กA $40B rotation could send SOL ๐
BTC Bottom in Today & Next High Confidence BTC Move Up Around Aug 23rd - Triple Confluence
This is another, fun, short-term Bitcoin price prediction using the triple confluence of Global M2, Gold and Inverse DXY, each shifted forward by 82 days.
Doing so last time correctly called a move up in advance (see the post below).
This seems to indicate a high probability of two things:
1. The bottom could be in today (Aug 18th)
2. The next, predictably, high-confidence move up will be around Aug 23rd.
The second point is the highest confidence as all 3 metrics show it. The first point is lesser confidence as it looks like there could be a few sideways days ahead from the metrics, but roughly speaking, the bottom seems to be near.
This "triple confluence" is an experimental thing I'm doing to see how it works out at predicting somewhat short term moves. Read the quoted post below for more context and data.
MM Update: @binance and @coinbase sending heaps of $SOL to #Wintermute - unprecidented supression as retail Leverage goes Long the asset on ETF approval event.
@SenLummis When Market Structure Bill? End this.