todorgri

Quantitative Trader and Analyst at @LeverageShares - the biggest European issuer of single stock ETPs. Long-Short PM. Global Macro. Python Fun.

[Noel Smith @NoelSmith]

Golden Era for Dispersion trading? $VIXEQ - $VIX Single name vol vs Index vol:

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🇺🇸 U.S. manufacturing activity hits 4-year high, expanding for the 5th straight month

[Barchart @Barchart]

FUN FACT 🚨: The Stock Market has never peaked in June

[Interesting STEM @InterestingSTEM]

Satellite and seismic data reveal that Earth emits a mysterious pulse every 26 seconds, often called its “heartbeat.” First noted in the 1960s, this rhythmic signal likely originates from ocean waves interacting with the seafloor near the Gulf of Guinea or volcanic activity nearby.

[Trinity @0xtrinityguy]

🚨 🚨 🚨 NOBODY KNOWS HOW MISUNDERSTOOD THE $300 BILLION IRAN RECONSTRUCTION DEAL ACTUALLY IS RIGHT NOW.

– 🇺🇸 USA — $70B in strikes degraded Iran's nuclear and military sites. Now a $300B phased reconstruction fund is on the table — conditional on FULL nuclear dismantlement and US company participation.
– 🏭 Iran — Infrastructure destroyed. Reconstruction requires verifiable inspections before a single dollar flows. US firms rebuild it. US standards embedded.
– 🌍 Framework — Multi-year, not lump-sum. Phased tranches locked behind compliance milestones. America holds the checkbook AND the timeline.
– 🇩🇪 Marshall Plan precedent — US spent billions rebuilding post-WWII Europe. Those "enemies" became America's largest trading partners for 80 years.
– 🇯🇵 Japan precedent — US rebuilt Japan after dropping two atomic bombs. Japan became a $4 TRILLION ally and economic partner within a generation.
– 🇸🇦 Abraham Accords pattern — Trump used pressure then normalized ties across the Gulf. Same playbook. Different theater.
– 🌍 G7 context — No other Western power has the leverage, the firms, or the framework to lock Iran into a US-dependent reconstruction pipeline for decades.
– ✈️ Blockade — Trump is keeping the blockade active until the deal is signed. The $300B doesn't flow until Iran complies. That's not a gift. That's a leash.
– 🏭 US firms — American construction, engineering, and energy companies rebuild Iran's power grid, refineries, and infrastructure. US standards. US contracts. US presence.
– 🌍 Analysts calling Trump an "idiot" — These are the same analysts who said the Abraham Accords were impossible, that maximum pressure wouldn't work, and that Soleimani's removal would start World War III.
– 🇺🇸 Trump internal memos — NYT reporting: Trump directed his team on Day 2 of his second term to prepare reconstruction contingency plans explicitly comparing the strategy to the Marshall Plan.
– 🌍 The deal structure — Nuclear dismantlement. Inspections. US-led rebuilding. Phased tranches. American oversight for decades. That is not reparations. That is colonization by contract.

The critics are showing you the price tag.

They're NOT showing you that the US just bought 30 years of Iranian economic dependency for $300 billion — the same way it bought 80 years of European loyalty after World War II.

I'll keep you updated. Turn on notifications. 🚨

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

41 AI stocks have driven 70 cents of every dollar added to the S&P 500 since ChatGPT launched

[Juliette Declercq @JulietteJDI]

"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand". Already the US economy produces tons of AI earnings, few aggregate earnings and 0 for workers. Our new JDI research reports explores all macro forces at work in this incredibly tricky cycle. Reach out to be the first to understand.

[Alex & Books 📚 @AlexAndBooks_]

In 1900, Theodore Roosevelt was on the presidential campaign trail.

He visited 567 towns, made 673 speeches, and traveled 21,209 miles.

And still he found time to read books for 4+ hours a day.

Here's a timetable of his day:

[Katherine Graham @KateXGate]

The Universe Was Making DNA Before Biology Existed

Physicist Gregory Morfill and collaborators studying complex plasmas observed something remarkable:

Microscopic inorganic dust particles suspended inside plasma spontaneously self-organize into stable helical structures resembling DNA.

No cells. No proteins. No genetics.

Inside plasma, charged dust particles interact through electromagnetic forces. As ions flow, they create plasma wakes that generate shifting attractions and repulsions, causing chains, lattices and helices to emerge spontaneously.

Some structures collapse quickly. Others persist because they distribute energy and charge more efficiently.

Meaning- the helices are not assembled.

They are the selected stable configurations of geometry that allow persistence of form within the interacting system.

———

Morfill’s work suggests that highly ordered structures can emerge from electromagnetic self-organization alone.

And plasma is everywhere- stars, nebulae, and interstellar space are dominated by plasma exhibiting filamentation, crystalline ordering, and collective behavior across vast scales.

Under the right conditions, plasma naturally organizes.

In that sense, DNA may be less the origin of organization than a biological refinement of principles already present in matter and fields before life emerged.

We're seeing this over and over again in every scientific ontology looking at fundamental organizational patterns:

Selection before genetics.
Geometry before function.
Constraint before biology.

———

So, if the universe is mostly plasma and plasma naturally organizes then perhaps order is not the exception in reality.

Perhaps disorder is.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Google released Gemini 3.5 Flash this week, and the cheaper, faster model now costs 5.5 times more to run than its predecessor. Token prices tripled to $1.50 per million input and $9.00 per million output, and on agent tasks it burns through so many tokens that total costs end up 75% higher than Gemini 3.1 Pro, the model Flash was supposed to be cheaper than. Anthropic's Opus 4.7 has a hidden 30 to 40% price increase from token consumption. OpenAI's GPT 5.5 jumped 50 to 90% over 5.4.

My Take
The AI labs are all running the same playbook. Headline price per token reads as competitive, but the new models burn through more tokens per task, and the all-in cost to finish a job climbs release over release. Every developer and enterprise buyer should measure efficiency rather than token price now, because the two numbers have decoupled fast.

Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months, which gives us the first hard evidence that the unit economics of frontier AI are catching up with the marketing. The labs charge more because each model burns more compute per task, and the hyperscaler capex no longer pencils out at the old prices. Enterprises that built workflows on the assumption that token costs would keep falling are about to see their AI bills jump 30 to 90% on the next model upgrade, and the productivity gains that justified the AI spend have to clear that higher bar to keep working.

Hedgie🤗

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The cost of anything digital that is not scarce goes to zero in fees.

Today Sui announced that moving money is now a zero cost operation via stablecoins. sui:native

It's a big deal for zero cost....

[𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞 @EffMktHype]

Too many are missing the point that all of this pain across assets has been caused by real rates. It has been the driver of repricing in the last week - nominal bonds, stocks, gold, etc.
Not only that, breakevens have been declining due to the size of the move in reals.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Hedging Downside Risk is nearly at its cheapest level in more than 20 years 🚨🚨

[Jon Erlichman @JonErlichman]

Nvidia’s first quarter revenue:

Q1 2027: $81.6 billion
Q1 2026: $44.1 billion
Q1 2025: $26.0 billion
Q1 2024: $7.2 billion
Q1 2023: $8.3 billion
Q1 2022: $5.7 billion
Q1 2021: $3.1 billion
Q1 2020: $2.2 billion
Q1 2019: $3.2 billion
Q1 2018: $1.9 billion
Q1 2017: $1.3 billion

[Bulgaria @Bulgaria]

Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast is waiting in its most beautiful summer form! 🏖️ From Varna to Burgas: crystal-clear waters, golden sands, and unforgettable sunsets… Time to plan your trip! 🇧🇬🌊 #VisitBulgaria #BlackSea

[Bulgaria @Bulgaria]

Good morning from champion Bulgaria 🇧🇬🏆
Following our historic Eurovision victory, we’re inviting you to discover the real magic: golden Black Sea beaches, majestic mountains, thousand year old treasures and the warmest hospitality in Europe.
Bangaranga is playing everywhere… will you be dancing with us this summer? ✨🇧🇬
#VisitBulgaria #TravelBulgaria #Eurovision2026 #BulgariaWins

[sentix @sentixsurvey]

#Bitcoins: Cryptocurrencies are on the wobble, but trust is still there
A week of weakness in #crypto prices has been enough to cast doubt on the sustainability of the recovery. So far, however, the decline in confidence has been manageable. It could have been worse. #sentix More charts here: https://t.co/W2Kl6Q2eNC

[Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 @DocumentingBTC]

This man is the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve

[Bulgaria @Bulgaria]

Most beautiful countries you’ve never visited: Bulgaria. You can’t change my mind.🇧🇬