Tohid Mohammad Nejad

Financial Engineer | Structured Portfolio Strategies & Risk Engineering

[SilverTrade @silvertrade]

🎇Hong Kong US Dollar Gold Futures Trading SHATTERS RECORD HIGH on Eve of Clearing System Launch‼️

⚠️6,676 US dollar gold futures contracts were traded Monday, more than DOUBLE the previous record high of 3,039 contracts recorded in November 2022
https://t.co/FqeGMLpHU7

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 BLOODBATH in Asian Markets

Over $800 BILLION wiped out from Asian stock markets in just a few hours amid a massive tech stocks sell-off.

South Korea's KOSPI down -8.2%, wiping out over ₩587,000,000,000,000 ($426 BILLION).

Japan's NIKKEI down 2.8%, wiping out approximately ¥32,500,000,000,000 ($217 BILLION).

TAIWAN's stock market down -3.5%, erasing NT$161,000,000,000,000 ($154 BILLION).

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

@hossein_alian با احترام، درباره P/E trap هم مطالعه بفرمایید.

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

@randgroup It’s crazy to see how a brand new player is rewriting the rules so quickly just a reminder of how fragile these perceptions can be, as long as the momentum stays.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Something rare is on the verge of occurring in the US economy:

The gap between the US unemployment rate and headline CPI has narrowed to just 0.1 percentage points, the smallest since 2022.

This comes as inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest since April 2023, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in March, April, and May.

Historically, periods when this gap has approached zero have often been followed by Fed rate hikes.

The most recent example includes 2021-2022, when inflation exceeded the unemployment rate for 22 months.

This prompted the Fed to hike rates by 5.25 percentage points to 5.5% between March 2022 and July 2023, the highest since 2001.

Inflation is back at the center of the Fed's attention.

[The Block @TheBlockCo]

US gaming industry groups urge Senate to ban sports prediction markets in crypto bill: report https://t.co/hoHtUJF4Wb

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

This weekend saw a lot of dark ship-to-ship transfers of oil in the Middle East. It's not Iranian oil. Instead, this is oil coming from Iran's Arab neighbors. Yet another reason why oil isn't $200/barrel right now.

#OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

[Kpler @Kpler]

Hormuz traffic remains constrained

Strait of Hormuz transit activity remained constrained over 5 to 7 June, with only eight monitored crossings across commercial and non-commercial traffic. The total was one below the single-day count on 4 June and 14 below the previous weekend, underscoring a break from stronger weekend permissive passage. All crossings used the Iranian Route, while only two sanctioned Iranian-flagged vessels transited, pointing to weak broader commercial participation. 

A recent attack on an MSC containership has reinforced the fragile operating picture in the area. Against a more volatile diplomatic backdrop, the Strait is likely to remain open only under narrow, tightly managed conditions, and moving further away from stabilising or increasing flows. 

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/VYSDZQMgoV

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

@randgroup 94% !? 🤔

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Gold has overtaken Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset

[Trade Whisperer @TradexWhisperer]

Investment theses win by targeting bottlenecks

HBM fixes GPU-to-memory wall (Memory Wall)
Photonics/Optics fixes server-to-server (East-West Traffic)

Memory Play: $MU $EWY (Samsung & SK Hynix)
East-West Play: $GLW (fiber) $LITE (laser/OCS), $AAOI $COHR (optics) $TSM (CPO)

[Hamid 𝕏 @hamiderfani]

My new article has been published in Seeking Alpha. If you'd like to know what's happened with $MAKO since the original article, how the trend is going, and after the price has tripled, whether this trend will continue or not, you can read it here:

https://t.co/TWeT9a6BLB

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

@KobeissiLetter The filing itself isn’t the story، the S-1 is. Once the numbers become public, we’ll finally see how much of the AI boom is driven by durable revenue growth versus massive compute spending. Anthropic’s IPO could become the market’s first real stress test for AI valuations.

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

😎

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Micron, $MU, extends gains to rise above $1,000/share for the first time in history, now worth nearly $1.2 trillion.

This stock was worth $60 billion just 13 months ago.

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

🚨Iran has halted US-Iran negotiations and placed full closure of the Strait of Hormuz on its agenda in response to escalated Israeli strikes on Lebanon. In the past hour, Brent crude has surged +5-7% to ~$96/bbl while gold has risen on safe-haven flows. Energy supply risk premium now dominates; watch volatility in oil curves and USD.

#Geopolitics
#MiddleEastWar

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

📊 SpaceX secured $6.45 billion in U.S. Space Force contracts within 7 days ($4.16B SB-AMTI + $2.29B Space Data Network).

For PMs:

🔹 The immediate impact is not just backlog growth it is increased revenue visibility backed by one of the world's lowest-credit-risk customers: the U.S. Government.

🔹 While contract execution timelines remain subject to program milestones, these awards could support hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue over multiple years.

🔹 More importantly, they reinforce SpaceX's strategic position within the U.S. national security space architecture, expanding its role beyond launch services into defense communications, data infrastructure, and missile-tracking systems.

Risk perspective:

⚠️ As government-related revenue grows, investors should monitor customer concentration risk and reassess portfolio assumptions regarding revenue diversification and long-term cash-flow drivers.

The bigger question may not be the $6.45B itself, but what it signals about SpaceX's future position in the defense-space ecosystem.

❓How are you thinking about space-tech exposure and portfolio allocation as government demand becomes a larger part of the investment thesis?

#SpaceX #Investing

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Pope Leo XIV today unveiled "Magnifica Humanitas," his first encyclical, a 235-page document on AI's impact on labor, warfare, privacy, and human dignity.

It was signed exactly 135 years after his namesake Pope Leo XIII signed "Rerum Novarum," the landmark document on workers' rights during the Industrial Revolution.

Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah stood alongside the Pope at the Vatican and warned that mass AI job losses are "a real possibility" and that AI decisions "should not be left to people in the industry." He acknowledged that every leading AI lab, including his own, faces pressures that "can sometimes conflict with doing the right thing."

The partnership is politically charged. The Trump administration banned federal agencies from using Anthropic's technology in February and labeled it a "supply-chain risk to national security" after the company refused to give the military unrestricted access to its AI systems. Anthropic is currently suing the administration over the designation.

The encyclical warns against entrusting "lethal decisions" to AI and calls out "the concentration of power and data in the hands of so few" as a danger to children and the vulnerable.

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

If both happen (China resumes buying + summer demand), market balance will tighten very quickly.
Inventories are drawing down, independent refiners are still keeping runs low, and state owned refiners may soon get new quotas and return.
Driving season is also peaking the coiled spring of the market is ready to release.
Great analysis 👌

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US inflation is persistently running above the Fed’s target:

US PCE inflation has surged +28.5% since February 2018, to an all-time high.

Had inflation run at a steady 2% target, it would have risen +17.4% over the same period.

In other words, the current path overshot the target by +11.1 percentage points.

The gap began to widen in 2021 following massive economic stimulus in response to the pandemic and near-zero interest rates in 2020 and 2021.

As a result, PCE inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target since April 2021, spanning 60 consecutive months.

The most recent reading for March stood at 3.5%, the highest since June 2023.

Inflation in the US remains way too high.

[Tohid Mohammad Nejad @Tohid_MN]

Beyond the headline 10% drop in 2026 demand that Kavita Chacko forecasts, I see two under-appreciated effects: a structural shift toward recycled gold and paper products that could quietly modernise India’s market, yet also a real risk that higher smuggling margins will erode the policy’s effectiveness and widen the domestic-international price gap.

[World Gold Council @GOLDCOUNCIL]

India has tightened controls on gold imports. What happens next? Research Head, Kavita Chacko explores the potential impact on demand and market dynamics in her latest blog. Read it on Goldhub.