Darko Simunovski

CEO & Portfolio manager at LFM Limitless Fund Management crypto expert & macro analyst.

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

My macro analysis from two months ago:
IF WAR LAST 3m+ → STAGFLATION
↓
-20-30% NASDAQ CRASH

TRIGGER CRASH
↓
OIL SUPPLY SHOCK
JAPAN CARRY TRADE
PRIVATE CREDITS
REPO MARKETS
HEDGE FUND MARGIN CALL
AI TECH CRASH

IF WAR 6m + → RECESSION
↓
UP TO 50% NASDAQ CRASH

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

@silvertrade Nope, first crash than rally

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

https://t.co/Pd3kRB4ZLJ

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

My macro analysis from two months ago:
IF WAR LAST 3m+ → STAGFLATION
↓
-20-30% NASDAQ CRASH

TRIGGER CRASH
↓
OIL SUPPLY SHOCK
JAPAN CARRY TRADE
PRIVATE CREDITS
REPO MARKETS
HEDGE FUND MARGIN CALL
AI TECH CRASH

IF WAR 6m + → RECESSION
↓
UP TO 50% NASDAQ CRASH

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

https://t.co/gf4tQugrz1

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

@CapoDotCapital Nope until they fix parachain dependency from rely chain ⛓️

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Different paths for USA and world order

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The Two Different Paths: We are about to find out which path we are on.  As I said in my last note, from my conversations with a number of world leaders in a number of countries, and as seems obvious to me, there will either be a) a U.S. win over Iran, which will require taking control over the Strait of Hormuz and assuring that Iran's nuclear program is dead—i.e., defanging Iran, or b) a U.S. loss, which is the result if these things don't happen.

Most senior policy makers I speak with believe that we are likely headed down the b) path and that will be made clear soon. It needs to be made clear soon because continuing on the current path or being more forceful will cause sharp increases in oil and gasoline prices and great difficulties during the high travel season, bad political consequences for President Trump, and difficulties in his upcoming meeting with President Xi in China. So, we should have that verdict soon.

The perception that the b) path is most likely is already leading to a view that the United States will not be a reliable protector against possible opponents like Russia in Europe and/or China in Asia, and that is already leading to actions being taken that are sensible in light of that belief, like leaders paying "tribute" visits to China. As explained before, this set of circumstances is likely to have some analogous consequences to Great Britain losing the Suez Canal in 1956. By the way, this is also happening at a time when China is earning huge amounts of money through its very strong exports—so much money that it is difficult for those Chinese earning the money to know what to do with it. This is making China a very important player in world capital markets as well as world trade. In other words, these events are making China geopolitically and financially stronger.

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

@CapoDotCapital You can't have adoption while parachains assets are totally dependent on admin of rely chain. I'm voicing this issue for long time but no-one give a f..k.
@seunlanlege @gavofyork

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Evolve or die

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts. For example, if there is too much supply and waste in a market, prices will go down, companies will go out of business, and capacity will be reduced until the supply falls in line with the demand, at which time the cycle will start to move in the opposite direction. Similarly, if an economy turns bad enough, those responsible for running it will make the political and policy changes that are needed—or they will not survive, making room for their replacements to come along. These cycles are continuous and play out in logical ways—and they tend to be self-reinforcing.

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Under the rule of new mayor of New York New TAX rules will come to force, this new tax law will have very negative consequences, just look at poor European 🇪🇺.

[Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @NYCMayor]

Happy Tax Day, New York. We’re taxing the rich.

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Crypto heaven countries in the world 🌎
0% CRYPTO TAX

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Bill Gates & Epsteine were planning covid 19 !!!
🚨 👀
https://t.co/iwIktKzbbh

[New Direction AFRICA @Its_ereko]

🚨🇲🇿 Big win for African sovereignty! Mozambique has fully repaid its 701 million dollar debt to the IMF ahead of schedule. The outstanding balance is now zero as of March 31 2026. This surprise move cancels a planned IMF mission in August and shows Mozambique stepping away from external oversight. Africa is quietly reducing reliance on old debt traps. Real independence means clearing burdens on your own terms and building with true partners who deliver without strings. While some nations face endless conditions and higher bills from empire conflicts, others are freeing themselves.

[World Insights @World_Insights1]

🛢️ Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz 👇

🟢 Feb 26 → 🚢 132
🟢 Feb 27 → 🚢 128
🟠 Feb 28 → 🚢 98
🟠 Mar 01 → 🚢 18
🟠 Mar 02 → 🚢 7
🔴 Mar 03 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 04 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 05 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 06 → 🚢 0
🔴 Mar 07 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 08 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 09 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 10 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 11 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 12 → 🚢 0
🔴 Mar 13 → 🚢 3
🔴 Mar 14 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 15 → 🚢 0
🔴 Mar 16 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 17 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 18 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 19 → 🚢 0
🔴 Mar 20 → 🚢 1
🔴 Mar 21 → 🚢 2
🔴 Mar 22 → 🚢 3
🔴 Mar 23 → 🚢 5
🔴 Mar 24 → 🚢 6
🔴 Mar 25 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 26 → 🚢 4
🔴 Mar 27 → 🚢 3
🔴 Mar 28 → 🚢 11
🔴 Mar 29 → 🚢 9
🔴 Mar 30 → 🚢 8
🔴 Mar 31 → 🚢 11
🔴 Apr 01 → 🚢 9
🔴 Apr 02 → 🚢 6 (as of 22:30)

Source: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyds List, PIB India, and regional briefings.

Note: Figures reflect AIS-confirmed transits and managed corridor movements; actual counts may fluctuate by 1-2 units due to "dark" transits (AIS-off) and Iranian-managed selective routing. Recent increases reflect the opening of the "Larak Corridor" for vessels from specifically cleared non-combatant nations (China, India, Russia).

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Buy the rumors, sell the news !!!

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

@AlexMasonCrypto I bet this is not his portfolio today

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

@davidbateman Learn Bitcoin

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Expect further $BTC drop

[glassnode @glassnode]

$BTC swung from $76k to $67k before rebounding to $70k. Spot and ETF demand cooled, derivatives turned more defensive, and on-chain activity stayed soft, pointing to a consolidative, cautious market backdrop.

Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇
https://t.co/niq82BTa8s

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Russia 🇷🇺 will come up as the biggest beneficiary of this Iranian 🇮🇷 war

[Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 @Alex_Oloyede2]

‼️$20B in damages to Qatar's LNG facility by Iranian strikes, destroying 17% in export capacity.

QatarEnergy may have to declare force majeure for up to 5 years on LNG sales to Italy, Belgium, Korea, and China. Energy prices in Europe have risen 15% just today.

South Korea, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Philippines now in contact with Moscow to buy Russian energy. Meanwhile supplies to China and India have also increased.

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

GLOBAL OIL 🛢 SITUATION

[Darko Simunovski @tokenpaddock]

Who Buys Middle East Crude Oil 🛢

[DatafactsHub @datafactshub]

Who Buys Middle East Medium Crude (% of Imports)

1. China Middle East Dependent — 54%
2. India Prefers Medium Sour — 50%
3. Japan Arab Light Focused — 90%
4. South Korea Middle East — 70%
5. USA Self Sufficient WTI — 12%
6. Germany Urals Dependent — 35%

Source: IEA Oil Market Report & EIA 2025