Tom Dale

Global politics and conflict, especially MENA. Writing, conflict analysis and civilian protection. Previously from Egypt, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Palestine.

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

2006: Condoleeza Rice ended Israel's war in Lebanon partly due to the U.S.'s Gulf Arab relationships, founded on the latter's oil and gas endowment. Today, Gulf oil and gas again provides Hezbollah's strategic fulcrum, but this time due to Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

[Yaakov Katz @yaakovkatz]

It’s no fun to say this but - as of this writing - Hezbollah has won the war against Israel. Yes, it is weaker and yes, it has been hit hard. But what happened this week - the linkage with Iran that has been legitimized by Trump & the ceasefire the president has imposed on Israel - all mean that Hezbollah has not only survived while retaining significant capabilities that continue to kill Israeli soldiers almost daily, but now, Iran calls the shots once again of what happens in Lebanon.

My latest in The @Jerusalem_Post.

https://t.co/hwv1ke0tgC

[Yaakov Katz @yaakovkatz]

It’s no fun to say this but - as of this writing - Hezbollah has won the war against Israel. Yes, it is weaker and yes, it has been hit hard. But what happened this week - the linkage with Iran that has been legitimized by Trump & the ceasefire the president has imposed on Israel - all mean that Hezbollah has not only survived while retaining significant capabilities that continue to kill Israeli soldiers almost daily, but now, Iran calls the shots once again of what happens in Lebanon.

My latest in The @Jerusalem_Post.

https://t.co/hwv1ke0tgC

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

In public life, in 2026, there are people willing to equate the Jews persecuted without distinction by the Nazis with those who have served in recent years, voluntarily, in an army against which credible (per the ICC) charges of genocide have been levelled.

[Hadley Freeman @HadleyFreeman]

Perhaps they could be identified by being made to wear - and I don't know, I'm just spitballing here - a yellow Star of David?

[John Schindler @20committee]

I realize nobody in MAGA cares, but large-scale IC firings bring enormous counterintelligence challenges. Terminated "in access" employees with bills and mortgages to pay may get desperate. That's when the walk-ins start.

This is why the IC has avoided big RiFs, historically.

[James Jackson @derJamesJackson]

Only 23% of Germans have a favourable view of Israel, lower percentage than the UK or France

[James J. Zogby @jjz1600]

All 3 of Netanyahu’s main opponents in the next election condemned him for surrendering to the US & agreeing to a “ceasefire” in Lebanon. They say he sold out & became a “vassal state” of the US. So if you’re thinking getting rid of Netanyahu makes Israel better - think again

[Lost Weapons @LostWeapons]

It may not seem like much but really these Ukrainian middle strike logistics campaign might be the biggest shift in the Ukrainian war in a long time. It’s almost completely separate of their 30k infantry death goal. Russia was already struggling just hitting their frontline units

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

Iran has included three important tests within the terms the MOU it is negotiating with the United States. These tests are intended to give Iran's leaders confidence that Trump, a counterparty they see as highly unreliable, is ready to make credible commitments, opening a pathway for further diplomacy.

First, the Iranians are testing the credibility of American security commitments by insisting that the MOU encompasses a Lebanon ceasefire. They are not doing this for the sake of Hezbollah or Lebanese Shias. Rather, they want to see if Trump can restrain Israel in its own backyard. If Trump is able to do that, then he might be able to defend his own deal with Iran from further Israeli sabotage.

Second, Iran is insisting on a nominal fee for vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz. This is not because they want more revenue, which would be negligible. They are insisting on this arrangement because they want to test whether Trump will endorse a deal that includes a clear instantiation of Iranian sovereignty and authority, especially one that did not exist before the war. Iran believes in the logic of a win-win agreement. Trump does not. Forcing him to accept a fee forces him to give Iran a "win" and to defend it as such from the Iran hawks in his circle. This is politically meaningful.

Finally, Iran is insisting on a the release of frozen assets. The sums in question are a tiny fraction of the economic cost of the war and the release of assets is not as valuable as sanctions relief that Iran will also be targeting. But by insisting on the release of funds at an early stage of the negotiations, Iran can test whether broader economic commitments, such as sanctions relief, will be credible. Iran will only consider the promise of sanctions relief to be credible if Trump's sanctions bureaucracy allows Iran to move and spend its own money. The Iranian side will insist on transactions that push the Trump administration to set new precedents for how sanctions relief can be operationalized, especially through guidance to banks.

For many in Washington, these demands seem unreasonable. But that is entirely the point. Iran's leadership won't tolerate a kind of narrow deal that allows U.S. policymakers to avoid putting political capital at stake. Iran wants a deal that reflects the unprecedented nature of the war and ensuing crisis. To meet the moment, the diplomacy has to be transformative.

Iran's leaders don't trust Trump, so they are testing him. So far, he is failing these tests.

[Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour]

Germany loses its bid for one of the non permanent seats on UN Security Council, defeated in election by Portugal and Austria. Diplomatic trivia maybe but it’s unprecedented. It’s probably a Global South punishment of Germany for its defence of Israel, an obligation Germany embraces born of its history.

[Woofers @NotWoofers]

Full video of half a dozen Ukrainian drones slamming into St. Petersburg oil terminal this morning while Russian air defenses try and fail to repulse the attack.

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

"Hezbollah is a learning organisation" - this passage concerns the mid-1990s. Still true.

[Ynet Global @ynetnews]

Hezbollah's nighttime FPV drones raise alarm in IDF: 'They keep improving'

Even before Staff Sgt. Michael Tyukin and Staff Sgt. Adam Tzarfati were killed, the IDF feared Hezbollah could equip fiber-optic FPV drones with thermal sen...

https://t.co/7H3EOsevyR

[Jack Watling @Jack_Watling]

Ukraine Turns the Tide: Why a Cease-Fire Is Now a Real Possibility, I write for @ForeignAffairs on the growing disconnect between the Kremlin's battlefield prospects and its aspirations: https://t.co/YGFRlPGzdQ

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

Bloomberg News exclusive:

Vladimir Putin has been told by senior Russian officials that the war in Ukraine is becoming unaffordable, the most serious sign of internal division in Moscow since the full-scale invasion began

https://t.co/gpk6OChdlC

[Double Down News @DoubleDownNews]

“I want to kill someone today & it might be you"

"They wrenched my trousers & underwear down & I was raped by one of the soldiers"

"Other people had guns inserted inside them"

"My daughter was syringed with an unknown substance"

Juliet Lamont's Gaza Flotilla testimony:

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

Completely inane. There was no chance the police would have been able to stop chants like the above being raised in Birmingham.

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

Recall that Keir Starmer campaigned on behalf of these racist hooligans, equating the police decision to ban them from travel to Birmingham with "antisemitism on our streets".

[Ramy Abdu| رامي عبده @RamAbdu]

In Stuttgart, supporters of the Israeli club Maccabi Tel Aviv openly chanted in the streets in German:

“You Arab whores…
We will kill you, drink your blood, & rape your girls.”

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

This is the second time I've seen this extremely dumb take. There is a Third Worldist current in DSA; Mamdani didn't join it. He's a product of the opposed current, which is aggressively committed to putting the material interests of working class Americans first.

[Make It Make Sense @themimsshow]

The origin of Zohran Mamdani’s ideology

[Ihab Hassan @IhabHassane]

Netanyahu says he told the Israeli army to occupy 70% of Gaza.

This is the new map of Gaza.

Nearly 2 million people — most of them displaced — will be crammed into just 110 square kilometers. That is more than 18,000 people per km².

[Tom Dale @tom_d_]

Extraordinary that, at such a moment, after Israel has dragged the U.S. into a losing war for its own interests, that the president would again expend diplomatic capital trying to advance Israel's interests.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Trump said he is not sure the U.S. should sign a deal to end the war with Iran if Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries don't agree join the Abraham Accords. "They owe it to us", he said

[Paweł Wójcik 🦋 @SaladinAlDronni]

Iran war poses new threat to harvests in hunger-stricken Sudan.

Farmers across Sudan say the hike in global fuel and fertilizer costs resulting from the Iran conflict will force them to cut back on planting this summer, ​restricting food production in a country where war has caused acute hunger. https://t.co/AjE1VB6NWH