Tom Jewell

UK & UAE Property Investment Expert | Founder of @sourceinvest | Former Pro Cricketer

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@LondonMoneyFS Imagine being this angry about other people’s tax planning on a Saturday morning.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@SukhSidhuDXB So hard to get a real sense of what it's been like in Dubai over the past few days. X is just so full of noise. Good to hear things seem to have settled.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@SaulStaniforth UAE have just paid for 20,000 people at DXB to get hotels and rebooked onto flights. Most non UAE residents. The narrative that expats in particular need bailing out is misaligned. They don't want to come back.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

Lots of talk about expats “moving back to the UK” because of the current conflict.

I don’t see it.

If anything, this will likely strengthen the expat community in the UAE.

Moments like this remind people why they moved in the first place, safety, stability, decisive leadership etc.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@PeterMcCormack They won't be moving back to the UK. The reality is the expat community in the UAE will only strengthen through going through this. The way that the UAE state have handled it will only of doubled down their decision to have gone there in the first place.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

The wider impact to property markets from the US-Iran conflict.

The bigger risk isn’t the conflict itself or UAE real estate.

It’s oil → inflation → delayed rate cuts → tighter liquidity.

That hits London.
That hits the UK.
That hits everywhere.

This is a macro question, not just a Dubai one.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@shanaka86 I would be very careful what you post about the UAE pal

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@NormaCohen3 Lazy take. This is less about leasehold and more about timing. Most of those flats were bought 2014–17 at peak pricing. Then rates rose, tax changed, supply hit the market. There hasn't been some sudden awakening about “not owning property”.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@MerrynSW Feels like a timing chart more than a new build chart. Most bought pre-Brexit and sold into the worst London flat cycle in decades. Funny thing is every period property people love today started life as an overpriced new build.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

The average UK homeowner now has roughly 50% loan-to-value.

Half the home owned outright.

So when people ask why higher interest rates haven’t caused a housing crash…
That’s your answer.

This isn’t 2008.

Most owners aren’t highly leveraged. They’re sitting on equity.

Which means: higher rates slow the market, but they don’t force mass selling.

The real pressure sits with new buyers at 80–95% LTV, not existing homeowners.
Two completely different risk profiles inside the same market.

And it’s one of the reasons UK housing keeps proving more resilient than people expect.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

People keep saying “Dubai is outperforming the UK.”

Outperforming at what?

If you’re judging how the UK is holding up at the bottom of its cycle, I can pretty confidently say Dubai wouldn’t look this stable if it were at the same stage.

And if you’re judging the last few years, where Dubai has been in a bull run, then yes of course it’s outperformed. That’s what early-cycle markets do.

You’re comparing two markets at completely different points in their cycle.
That’s like comparing bonds to equities and arguing one is “better.”

They carry different volatility. Different upside. Different downside.

The question isn’t which one is winning.

It’s what stage of the cycle you’re buying into and what level of risk you’re comfortable with.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@proptechpioneer We have just been offered some discounted opportunities on new landmark projects nearing completion in Manchester City center. It's more like 15%-20% than 30% however.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

Scotland is one of the strongest housing markets in the UK right now.

• Up ~4.5–5% y/y
• UK average closer to ~2–3%

At the top end?
Record number of £1m+ sales in Glasgow this year.

Interesting stuff relative to the sentiment in other parts of the UK and especially London.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

One of the reasons rents are starting to cool off?

More first-time buyers are stepping back in.

Rightmove data shows the average monthly mortgage payment for a first-time buyer has dropped below £1,000.

£1,062 last year
£975 this year

The average rental price is currently £1,367pcm.

Finding the deposit for first time buyers is still likely to be the main barrier to entry, however.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

UK inflation printed at 3.0%.
Still above the 2% target, but trending down.

Why it matters for property:
Falling inflation reduces pressure on the Bank of England. Mortgage markets price in that stability and fixed mortgage rates improve before base rate cuts even happen.

We’re already seeing better fixed-rate options and more competition at higher LTV.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@landlord_secret Agreed. My only caveat is I see all too often investors chasing yield at all cost. Yield is a reflection of how much risk you are taking in the market.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

@AnneAshworth @ONS I worry the numbers for 2026 are going to be dramatically lower again you.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

UK jobs market is cooling. Wage growth easing.

From a mortgage perspective, that’s not bad news.

Softer labour data = less inflation pressure = increases the chance rates keep drifting down.

Markets are already pricing further base rate cuts. Swap rates (what really drives fixed mortgages) have stabilised and edged lower from their peaks.

For buyers:
– Rate environment improving
– Lenders still keen to lend
– Developers offering incentives

You can’t time the bottom perfectly. But buying into a stabilising rate cycle feels very different to buying into a rising one.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

Interesting shift right now: In Abu Dhabi, apartments are outperforming villas this cycle. Apartments are up 35% vs 14% for villas in 2025.

Smaller ticket sizes. ADGM / Reem demand. End-user driven. Freehold still relatively new. Capital flows hit apartments first.

Meanwhile in Dubai, it’s largely been the opposite, villas led the charge, apartments lagged because of heavier supply.

Point being: “UAE property” isn’t one market.

[Tom Jewell @tom_property]

Will this be one of the greatest generational buying opportunities.

Certain projects by Modon on Reem Island, walking distance to ADGM (Abu Dhabi’s financial centre), at around AED 1,800 psf, roughly £360 psf.

Put that into context:
– Downtown / DIFC comparable stock is now ~£700 psf
– Canary Wharf is ~£1,200 psf

So you’re effectively getting financial-district adjacency, in a capital city, at a fraction of what equivalent global hubs trade at.

And we’re still very early in Abu Dhabi’s cycle. Freehold only opened in 2019.

Crazy to think there are still plots this close to ADGM.

In 10 years, if AD continues on its current trajectory, people will look back at sub-£400 psf and think this was a generational opportunity.