Tomer Mayara

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@Grayscale @SuiNetwork Anyways ask: “Where the yield is coming from?”

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@IntCyberDigest @brave

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@benjamincowen @Giovann35084111 @TheRealPlanC This is really interesting. Thanks

What would invalidate this model?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@PeterLBrandt Do you see a base forming for a few months before rallying up?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@InvestWMello Someone should tell him about San Disk

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@nikitabier That’s is genuinely interesting. Would you published it as an updating dash (a bit like Google Trends)?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@jasonpizzino Why default if you can monetize?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@benjamincowen I think it started by “the man who shouted Banana” and got copied by different “experts”. All of them quietly disappeared (or pivoted l) after it was clear they missed calling the top … again…

[MoneyAndMouth @MoneyAndMouth]

We are at this stage of the Bitcoin market where influencers sling poop on each other or quietly disappearing

Regardless of 4 year cycle, super cycle, banana or power:

If your favorite crypto expert failed to give an “exit” signal before Bitcoin crushed decisively below 80k (they had about a year to do so), then the working assumption should be that they are a bullshit generation operation.

It doesn’t matter if Bitcoin rallies later this year to 300k. You can’t claim “expert “ and you can’t claim “not a bullshit artist” and miss calling “exit” on the recent top

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@TheRealPlanC I see. I miss read it. So on the same vein: if we won’t spend any time above the 90 quintile for, say ,18 months, would that invalidate the model?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@TheRealPlanC Got it. So in layman’s terms: the main way to invalidate the model is if Bitcoin drops roughly below 17k?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@nikitabier FR - grok automatically converts articles and threads to 260 characters tweets at the time of posting

——-

Prehistory
Twitter has max characters limit->poster need to spend time and effort on being concise->users can go through a lot of noise quickly and get to the gold->Love it

History
Users started to do threads->Twitter becomes X->Grok can now summarize threads-> users can go through a lot of noise quickly and get to the gold->Like it

Present
Users writing articles->X becomes substack(?)->it’s mostly noise hard to find gold->hate it

Future?
Grok automatically converts articles and threads to up to 260 characters tweets (at the moment of posting)->Gold is easier to find and you can always read the original if necessary

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@apsk32 Overfitting sells 😝

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@ericyakes Thank you for saying the quite parts loud (BtcTCs & Solana is the best bitcoin L2 😊)

Looks like Denver startup/VC scene is getting stronger (maybe because the snow this year sucks) :-)

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@dotkrueger Where does the yield come from?

I get borrowing USD against BTC, but how do you generate enough yield on the borrowed USD to offset borrowing costs and generate 10% annual on the principal? (which I think is generating 30%-35% annual on the borrowed USD )

What am I missing?

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@benjamincowen Liberal use of the “mute” button. You can’t change other people, but you do control your own actions

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

I have a genuine question regarding the various power law analyses that have emerged recently.

Is it possible that some of them are overfitted to historical data and lack substantial predictive power?

These models have become public only a few months ago (afaik), and the initial out-of-sample data indicates short-term deviations that do not align with expectations.

Although it is premature to dismiss them entirely, would it not be prudent to observe them for an additional 18-24 months before relying on them? I would appreciate your insights.

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@JamesEastonUK @MoneyAndMouth !TrackIt

[Tomer Mayara @tomermayara]

@JamesEastonUK @MoneyAndMouth !TrackIt