Risk/reward seems attractive again.
Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters.
Time will tell!
The $MU memory cycle is over and the bubble is popping.
At least that's what the market is pricing after a 25% crash in two weeks. There's just one problem: the "bubble" is sold out for the next two years.
Two weeks ago $MU printed one of the greatest quarters in semiconductor history: $41B in revenue, up 345% YoY, 85% margins, and guidance for $50B next quarter. The stock made new ATHs at 1259... then gave back 300 points on cycle fears.
But this isn't the old Micron; 16 take or pay contracts with binding price floors and $22B in customer deposits mean customers pay whether they take delivery or not. Management says margins at FLOOR pricing would still exceed past peak margins. Bears are trading the 2018 playbook against a company that rewrote the rules.
The chart is now backtesting the exact zone that launched the last leg. 966 was the breakout level; $MU sits just under it at 938 with monthly support at 810 below. Reclaim 966 and hold, and 1100 comes fast. Thru 1100 and the ATH retest at 1259 is in play. Break 1259 and the 1500 melt up thesis is fully alive again.
HBM4 Is the Inflection
$MU was just approved as an HBM4 supplier for $NVDA's Vera Rubin platform with shipments starting this half. HBM4 revenue already crossed $1B and the ramp is moving 2x faster than HBM3E did. Micron now sees the HBM market topping $100B by 2027 (a year earlier than projected). First wafers from its new $9.3B Japan fab came off the line on July 4, and fresh supply deals with Ford and GM keep widening the demand base.
Trade Ideas
$MU above 966
Swing Trade: MU 8/21 1500C
Day Trade: MU 7/10 1000C
The market is pricing the death of the old memory cycle. It hasn't noticed the new one has a floor under it. When it does, the reclaim will be violent.
We want to succeed and achieve great things, but when we fail to live like a winner by thinking winning thoughts, we have little chance of succeeding on a big scale. Thinking like a winner and believing what a winner believes comes before winning!
A fallacy I’ve seen on Twitter a lot:
“Stocks are going down bc of company performance &/or executive leadership”.
Truth: Tech names are dropping bc capital is flowing into safer, interest bearing assets who’s yields have exploded as the Fed raises rates.
NEWS: Elon says Tesla is close about picking a new location for a new Giga factory; “Tesla has no debt and has on the order of $20B in cash and that’s a pretty great position to be in.”
BREAKING: @elonmusk says he will not sell any $TSLA until 2025; Says he needed to have some powder dry in case things got bad.
"I will not sell stock until at least two years from now. certainly not next year under any circumstances"
Two best TWTR CEO candidates I’ve heard so far: Sheryl Sandberg ( $META) and Bret Taylor ( $CRM). Not sure either would take the job but both have all three essential ingredients: 1/ Tech expertise, 2/ Sales acumen, 3/ Leadership skills. @elonmusk
MS on $TSLA: "We see an attractive entry point for investors; Due to its scale/cost leadership, lack of financial debt, & self-funding/free cash flow generation, we see Tesla as relatively lower risk vis-à-vis other EV pure plays as well as vs. the EV efforts of legacy OEMs."