As a result of a US government directive, we are suspending access to Claude Fable 5 for all users. You can continue to use all other Claude models.
Here’s what this means for you:
Across Claude products, new sessions will run on your selected default model or Opus 4.8, and existing Fable 5 sessions will end with an error.
On the Claude Platform, requests to Fable 5 will also return an error. Please update your integrations to other Claude models.
We know this is a disruption to your workflows; we appreciate your patience and support.
Kioxia Investor Day 2026 Key Incremental Information from Q&A
50% LTA coverage.
New fab K-3 is coming.
A lot more information from Q&A than from the investor day deck.
1. LTA Details
Around 50% of total business volume is currently expected to be covered by LTAs, with the company aiming to increase that over time.
LTAs cover price, timing, and volume, not just volume.
Customer interest extends into FY29 and beyond, reflecting strong hyperscaler and enterprise confidence in AI inference demand.
Not every customer will sign LTAs; some will remain on traditional procurement agreements.
Significant percentage of the entire business should be covered by LTA in year 2028 and beyond
2. Shareholder Return Policy
Kioxia is actively considering starting dividends from FY27, based on FY26 results.
A dividend in 2H FY26 is also being studied but not decided.
CFO used 50% of net FCF as an illustrative shareholder return ratio, while stressing this is not official policy.
Base return would be a progressive dividend.
Excess earnings could be returned through special dividends.
Buybacks would depend on the share price.
If no suitable M&A opportunities materialize, capital otherwise reserved for growth investment could be returned to shareholders; in principle, this could reach up to 100% of net FCF.
3. M&A Logic
M&A is explicitly part of the capital allocation framework.
Potential directions include:
Downstream / forward integration to deepen customer ties and solution capabilities.
Upstream / backward integration to strengthen supply chain stability.
Management said no specific transaction has been decided.
4. Capacity Discipline
FY28 output is expected to be roughly 2x FY25.
Output growth is calibrated to around 22% market CAGR, not designed to outgrow the market and create oversupply.
Roughly half of cleanroom space at Yokkaichi and Kitakami K-2 remains unoccupied.
Existing shell capacity should support expansion until around FY28-FY29, without immediate need for a new fab building.
5. K-3 New Fab Timing
Kitakami K-3 is still in early internal discussion.
Decision / construction timing may be around FY29, possibly early FY29.
The fab would likely need to come online around FY2030.
No new greenfield site outside Kitakami and Yokkaichi was mentioned.
6. Investment Discipline
Management pushed back against the idea of accelerating capex aggressively despite strong cash generation.
Projects must clear an internal hurdle rate above estimated WACC (around 10%).
Management explicitly noted that overinvestment would hurt the overall industry.
Kioxia management was initially hesitated to respond to the question of how much percent of the volume is supported by LTA. Then they say it’s 50% at the moment and hope that figures to be higher. Dang!!!!
And “significant percentage of the entire business should be covered by LTA in year 2029 and beyond”.
Valuation re-set coming soon?
I am sure sell-side bank analysts are now updating models and writing update reports. More new target prices on Kioxia coming soon.