Tony Walker

Present.

[John Lyons @TheLyonsDen]

Extraordinary moment in Australian politics. The brilliant Robert Haupt asks an intriguing question of Gough Whitlam, a public figure with great intellect & skill with words. All the more interesting in light of today’s escalating conflict in Middle East #auspol #Israel #Lebanon

[💧Michael West @MichaelWestBiz]

Another Australian charity found to fund the IDF and illegal settlements in Israel. This one #JNF - probably the biggest.

@sstephanietrann investigation

#auspol #ACNC
https://t.co/K6HIdATWkR

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@RestIsPolitics @campbellclaret Enjoying this, but for Aust listeners there's a big omission: Murdoch's role in 1975 sacking of Aust's Whitlam Labor govt. was arguably his first flex in manipulating democratic processes, setting him on the path towards Thatcher in '92 & Trump in '16.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@irenenog @Wendy_Bacon @dannynoeljackso @document_j @antoinette_news It's been going on for decades with AIJAC & AJA regularly, even constantly, filing complaints, pressuring govt ministers, calling for sackings, demanding meetings, threatening legal action, slurring ABC staff. It's wearing, which is never a reason to capitulate.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@Wendy_Bacon @cookiecruncher_ @antoinette_news It's been going on for decades with AIJAC & AJA regularly, even constantly, filing complaints, calling for sackings, demanding meetings, threatening legal action, slurring ABC staff. Many managers over the years have stood up commendably for ABC independence. Not so much recently

[Doug Cameron @DougCameron51]

So Iran is in breach of the non proliferation treaty according to Andrew Hastie. When challenged on the legality of Israel’s attack he crumbles and resorts to the pathetic “I’m not a lawyer” defence.
No mention of Israel’s illegal nuclear bomb stockpile!
This is not self defence!

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@deniseshrivell @cheryl_kernot The illness gripping the world is capitalism. It has metastasised through neoliberalism - now the defining symptom of the disease. As long as capitalism remains the dominant global economic system war, climate change, poverty & inequality, corruption, & the rest will continue.

[Doug Cameron @DougCameron51]

Another top down deceleration. This time support for Trump’s aggression, lies and militarism.
How is this consistent with support for a rules based order and diplomatic resolution to conflict?
Why are we mute on Netanyahu’s illegal nuclear weapons?
https://t.co/wRanzNRud7

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@Jeff_Sparrow @antloewenstein So now both parties are war parties… Little America.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@navybluecorner A lot to be pleased with from Friday. We find out how real it is next week. You talked last week about Weitering’s intelligence & honesty. I’m also struck by his analysis & eloquence. Could he be skipper? As brilliant as Cripps is, I often wonder if he has the words to inspire.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@CarltonFCBlues Hewitt
TDK
Cerra
Weitering
Williams

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

It is indeed "one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of Trump's presidency" in the sheer level of gaslighting at play: he's trying to make one of the biggest and clearest humiliations in US history look like a win.

But there's no amount of lipstick that can disguise this pig. What happened is remarkably similar to the 2022 Liz Truss fiasco in the UK: Trump came out with a remarkably foolish and terribly executed policy that created a market panic—including in the bonds market—and he had to walk it back.

But unlike the British system that—for better or worse—can get rid of woefully incompetent Prime Ministers (that is, more incompetent than the average), the U.S. is stuck with Trump.

And unlike Liz Truss, Trump remains insulated by a circle of sycophants like Lutnick who reframe humiliating capitulations as 'extraordinary' triumphs, and a voter base that interprets even his most flagrant policy failures as masterful 4D chess moves.

Fact is, even after this retreat, the U.S. is in a far worse position than it used to be.

Contrary to what Lutnick and Trump are saying, what this episode proved beyond doubt is that the world is NOT ready "to work with President Trump to fix global trade". In fact, besides Israel's Netanyahu, I haven't seen a single country on earth come out publicly to support Trump's plan.

Sure, a couple of weaker countries who are heavily dependent on trade have reluctantly come forward to find a way to mitigate the damage Trump would do to their economies but to conflate this with enthusiastic cooperation is pure fantasy.

What we're witnessing instead is damage control by nations caught in the crossfire of his insane economic policies. And you can be sure that the long-term strategy of these countries will now be to reduce dependencies and trading links to the U.S. in order to avoid being caught in a similar situation in the future.

More importantly, the countries that together make up about 50% of trade with the U.S.—namely Canada, the EU and China—have all announced retaliatory tariffs and measures, which a) means that Trump's claim that countries other than China "aren't retaliating in any way, shape, or form against the United States" is a complete lie and b) shows that his approach has accomplished the remarkable feat of uniting geopolitical rivals in opposition to him.

Which is undoubtedly why his new approach seems to be to single-handedly focus on China, with a retreat to the good old U.S. strategy of trying to get others to help them contain China.

This has zero chance of working either, for 2 main reasons.

The first one is that if Trump has demonstrated one thing in the past 3 months, it's that he's fundamentally unstable and unreliable, and so is the United States. His chaotic governance sends a clear message to the world: America's word means nothing beyond the next Truth Social post.

If the notion that a country would take the risk of putting all its eggs in the American basket was already delusional before his presidency; it is now beyond absurd. What he's done is transform America from a cornerstone of global trade into a risk factor that must be hedged against.

The second one is that the "deal" on the table for these countries is absolutely repugnant, from their standpoint.

I mean, think about it: the "deal" would presumably be for these nations to abandon or significantly reduce their economic relationship with China—their largest trading partner in many cases—in exchange for a trading relationship with the U.S. that is worse than it used to be, with 10% additional tariffs. In effect it's asking countries to sacrifice their economic sovereignty and strategic flexibility for a lesser punishment.

It's a lose-lose proposition that might play well on Truth Social, but will get you laughed out of the room in the world of international relations. Unless you're say a tiny country that has the misfortune of being too weak and dependent on the American market.

But even in this latter case, these countries might amuse Trump in the short-term but they'll undoubtedly put in place long-term strategies to de-hitch themselves from the US crazy train as fast as possible in the medium term.

So all in all, what we're looking at here is not a strategic masterstroke but the desperate flailing of an administration that didn't anticipate how markets and trading partners would respond to economic coercion.

Trump is "teaching the world a lesson" all right: he taught them that America is now the biggest threat they face for their prosperity and the result of this won't be to "work with him", but to hedge themselves as much as they can from the American madness he's unleashed.

History will remember this not as an "extraordinary" moment of American strength, but as the point when the world concluded that diversifying away from the American market was no longer just economically prudent but existentially necessary for their own economic security.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

Excellent interview, as far as it went, but no one asked what actually happens if the Trump admin. defies all the courts’ decisions and pushes ahead with deportations, sackings, bannings etc?

A War on the First Amendment https://t.co/UYYDC9HCIB via @democracynow

[Ben Pennings @BenPennings]

FYI for Albo-Dutton-Murdoch via @firstdogonmoon

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

@AlboMP Oh fuck off Albo. America is about to become one of the most illiberal nations in the West. Don't cuddle up to fascists!

[Alan Kohler @AlanKohler]

My column for @TheNewDailyAu: Australia's bullshit climate policies. "It’s partly because Tony Abbott, Peta Credlin and Rupert Murdoch electrified this fence in 2010 and everyone is still frightened to touch it, but there’s more to it than that."
https://t.co/J8kUyrGDOo

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is beautiful 👇: Norwegian journalist confronts Stoltenberg with some basic facts about the "China threat" he loves to fearmonger about.
https://t.co/XZxOY9Yv1y

He got the US number wrong though: according to the Congressional Research Service (part of the US Congress), the US launched 251 military interventions since 1991 (https://t.co/07ah8EP1gm). So definitely more than 13 in the past 40 years...

And the craziest part about these numbers is that the number of US military interventions *increased* after the end of the cold war, demonstrating that the more hegemonic and powerful the US became, the more aggressive it was.

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

Great to finally see #ABC News covering on-the-ground reality in #Gaza … https://t.co/HgxqorlJ3s

[Media Watch @ABCmediawatch]

“Al Jazeera and Anadolu both covered Hassan Hamad’s death. As did several pro-Palestinian sites.

But there has been little or nothing in the mainstream media which is remarkable. Are we now so hardened to journalists being targeted?”

#MediaWatch

[Tony Walker @tonywalker]

Ah, the good ol’ days, when the #ABC had journalists who would call out politicians who lied…

[Dazza @Dazzaat]

When the ABC had journalists,