Miss Tortoise

Tech, cricket, films and politics. Curious about how things work and how they could work better.

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

It’s not about search revenue rate lowering to 12%. It’s about the future risks to search.

With agents like Muse or Instinct where customers will not do google search before buying a product, how will search revenue not get impacted?

[dnap @dnapway]

David Sacks says $GOOG looks oversold here

"I'm seeing people post that Alphabet's Google search revenue dropped below 50% of total revenue for the first time, and they're making it sound like that's a catastrophic situation. Basically playing into the narrative that the search business is going to be disrupted by AI. And that's what it seems like on the surface. But when I dug into the numbers, it didn't really seem that bad at all."

"It’s true that Google searches' relative share decreased, but its absolute revenue still increased. If you look at Google search revenue year over year, it was still up 12%. It increased from $56 billion to $63 billion. So there's still a roughly $7 billion year over year increase in Google search. Google search is still thriving."

"I think you could say it's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet. And the reason why the share fell below 50% is because other Alphabet businesses are simply growing much faster. And the main one is Google Cloud, which basically doubled year over year to $37 billion."

"So it's the rise of the Google Cloud business that has made Google search seem like it's on the decline. But I tend to think it's a good thing that Alphabet is now finally getting some of these other businesses to really work and to finally diversify the revenue. Diversifying from search has been something they've wanted to do for a long time. They now have all these other segments, you've got YouTube, you've got G Suite subscriptions."

"So in any event, I tend to think Google's a little bit oversold on this news today."

Jason: "I just literally bought some shares. So I'm long. I just bought more Google while doing the show.

David Friedberg: “Just remember, Alphabet owns 6% of SpaceX and like 15% of Anthropic as well. I think 85% of Waymo.”

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@QQQ275Soon This is a temporary buyout! Google will eventually go down to $250

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@Sanjay_Dixit This vile guy was an IAS! Digest that

Due to people like him, I have started wondering if it is not just politicians who have been destroying this country.

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

Somehow we Indians are the easiest to make fool of!

[Bharat Singh @KRASHANKAN8171]

इंसानों को आपस में बाटने से काम नहीं चला तो
अब भगवानो को भी बाट दिया।

धीरेन्द्र शास्त्री के अनुसार उनके भगवान सीधे खड़े होते हैं।अन्य लोगों के भगवान टेढ़े खड़े होते है।

मुरली बजाने वाले टेढ़े उनके धाम भी टेढ़े
क्या यही सभ्य भाषा हो सकती है।

एक आचार्य की जो हिंदू राष्ट्र की बात करता है।
आज अपने भगवान और अन्य लोगों के भगवान अलग बता रहा है।,,,,

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@GabbbarSingh But you have been doing pretty good with just the skill of bullshit and fooling people

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@deepigoyal @temple Not doubting the product but would be sad and disappointing if it becomes a new normal

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@DesaOdra @Kilo_Spec Lol Randiyan, Rape.. ye hai hamare Hindu sewak

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

Hamare Srujan ji with 150 followers

[Srujan @getsintrouble]

Ramayana will be the beginning of the end of Ranbir's career

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@iArpitSpeaks @dhruv_rathee Why can’t it be both? Rabid Arnab madly in love with Dhruv

[Arpit Sharma @iArpitSpeaks]

Just saw a video-

Either Arnab Goswami is madly in love with you @dhruv_rathee bhai or he has got rabies.

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@DesaOdra @Kilo_Spec You dumbfuck I was questioning OP as they were justifying older Ramayana scene by saying it was more practical! You can’t pick and choose. Why not apply the practicality lens to whole Ramyana?

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@DesaOdra @Kilo_Spec Haha so you will decide if I am a Hindu or not. BTW talking about hate, I only detest BJP and low IQ arrogant people. I love being a Hindu

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@DesaOdra @Kilo_Spec Lol my Prophet Mohammed? I am a Hindu dude

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

This is crazy!! Most bearish case I have seem on Google so far

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:

This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term

Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries

Google’s response?

Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for

A few examples to illustrate:

For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model

I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid

This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much

However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding

It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem

Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision

Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting

This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed

But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”

The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off

So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam

This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)

This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes

Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day

And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off

Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target

These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow

Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs

Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future

This is now no longer the case

At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@Akshat_World @Akshat_World ^^

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@Akshat_World Hi Akshat, isn’t the second point contradicting dot com bubble? Internet was the sole theme at that point of time but it faced a lot more than 30% correction. Thoughts?

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@CourageousRo She never posted this

[Miss Tortoise @tortuga104]

@SrBachchan Might be a minor mistake for you but I couldn’t sleep for nights. Please don’t make such mistakes again sir! 🙏