RareBe

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@dlacalle_IA Cushy job reporting news on the rear mirror

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@grok @BCResource @HFI_Research @JKempEnergy It suggests that the the the net long-short is almost mutual, and a move will significantly punish the opposing fund managers.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

This is the chart that amazes me the most lately: 3-2-1 crude oil crack spreads not only continue to break new all-time highs, but at ~$58, the spread is just TEN DOLLARS AWAY IN ABSOLUTE AMOUNT from 1 barrel of WTI Crude at ~69$

Question 1: If oil refiners are supposedly printing money as if there is no tomorrow while having access to ample supply of cheap crude oil, why are the shares of oil refiners ( $CRAK ) only up 6% since the 27th of February?

Question 2: How can you have, according to this data point, a shortage of gasoline and diesel when refineries have been broadly running almost at 100% capacity around the world to replace the lost output from the Middle East, without demand growing in the past 4 months?

Question 3: Why aren't inventories being refilled now that the price of crude oil is back at pre-war levels and "everything is back to normal"?

If anyone can answer all three of these questions, then crude oil prices aren't being artificially manipulated. If no one can answer, then the crude oil supply shock continues to worsen, as data continue to state, while paper price manipulation is distorting the real value of one barrel of oil, and the market will brutally reprice all of a sudden (likely when gas stations begin to run out of gasoline and diesel that, at that point, will be sold to the highest bidders)

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@Barchart Oh oh @RayDalio may be onto something

[Noble Capital @noble_capital_1]

You guys don’t get it…

The oil trade is DONE

Oil’s going to ZERO

Supply doesn’t matter

Because demand no longer exists

The world gave up oil

Cars & planes can just use water
China will never buy oil again
SPRs are no longer needed

We’ve reached the oil-less energy Nirvana

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Qatar's Foreign Ministry just openly contradicted Trump's claim of a scheduled Doha meeting with Iran — confirming that while U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators, no high-level meeting between American and Iranian officials is planned, per Al Jazeera.

Trump had posted earlier on Truth Social: "IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!"

Trump's market manipulation trick!!

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@dlacalle_IA In, or out, flow?

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Meanwhile the spread between crude oil and gasoline keeps expanding (close to ATH) in a never unseen market behaviour - perhaps because crude was never manipulated to this extreme level

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@theaiportfolios Howcome groq and deepseek portfolio performance differ by such a wider margin

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@zorrotapatio Not suitable comparison. Iran is a technical bias, Algeria game was full time, overtime, and hydration (advertising) time. Better to delete the flawed tweet.

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@MarioNawfal Burn more fuel protecting than being moved

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@CommodMkt @CNBC @MorganLBrennan Whats your take on this https://t.co/wiueoOg6vv

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

This morning, I joined @CNBC and @MorganLBrennan to discuss the latest moves in oil markets.

My view is that while the market is in surplus today, that tells us nothing about tomorrow.

Over the past three to four weeks, we’ve seen previously trapped crude pushed out through the Strait, and that supply is now hitting the market. That helps explain the recent move lower, but it’s a temporary dynamic rather than a shift in the broader balance.

The market has likely overshot to the downside.

At the same time, underlying conditions remain tight. Shipping risks persist, only limited lanes are operational, and flows are still constrained.

There is also a growing disconnect in the system. We have surplus crude, but a shortage in refined products, with margins at extremely elevated levels. That is likely to drive refineries to increase runs to capture those returns.

Inventories remain depleted, and in that kind of environment the system cannot adjust smoothly. It tends to move from small surpluses to tightness very quickly, driving significant volatility in both directions.

I would view the current weakness as temporary rather than indicative of a more balanced market.

Watch the full interview here: https://t.co/wcb5UU2Fp3

Thanks again to the @Squawkstreet team for having me on.

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@DarioCpx @grok what does it say and signal when they diverge. what happens when crack spread at $50 ?

[KC Invests @KC_Invests]

Oil is only down this morning due to Asian market sell off overnight

Tank bottoms are near, and inflow of ships entering the Strait of Hormuz is 0. I’m remaining invested and will wait years for the next oil cycle if I need to.

Things usually happen quicker than expected…

[Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ]

I have to hand it to the crude desks—they sniffed out this political theater before the ink was even dry.

It is exceptionally rare to see institutional flow ACTUALLY outsmart the geopolitical PR machine in real time.

But if you want to know exactly how this plays out, you need to pull up the market internals from October 1973.

Everyone remembers the historic oil shock, but they conveniently forget the string of broken ceasefires that preceded it.

Back then, equities blindly rallied on every broadcasted truce while physical crude quietly built a massive, relentless bid.

The politicians were selling de-escalation on television, but the refiners were panic-hoarding physical barrels in the dark.

Fast forward to today's headline out of Israel, and we are tracking that exact historical playbook with terrifying precision.

The Lebanon deal is structurally dead, crude instantly reclaims $70, and the options chain is scrambling to re-price tail risk.

Here is the catch that should keep the $SPY bulls awake tonight.

In '73, the true market carnage didn't trigger when the shooting started—it triggered when the street realized the supply deficit was PERMANENT.

The tech-bros aggressively shorting energy volatility today are completely blind to the fact that the geopolitical buffer is gone.

They are playing mean-reversion in a global regime that is actively fracturing.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, per US officials.

The attack took place near the coast of Oman after the Iranian Navy warned ships not to use routes through Hormuz that have not obtained Iranian approval.

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@grok @M1bxx @Jitkant @ABmeftah By extension, this implies that this 19 year old female is biologically a male, but developed the visible body of a woman?

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@vanmutoka1 We may get real facts about Iran-US deals in about 5 years from now 😎

[RareBe @tozzi21]

@grok @denfang @KobeissiLetter How does this impact gold?