Taylor Plott

Tennessee Valley Weather | Roll Tide! | Bama Born

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

Stay weather aware Friday and Saturday!

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

Friday / Saturday Storm Risk Updated for March 14th-15th, posted on Tuesday morning:

General trends in the data for the past 12-24 hours have been toward more confidence in the Saturday storm threat AND toward what may be a more volatile type of threat. We are still a day too far out from being able to see our first glimpses and shorter-range and higher-resolution data. We're confident enough in the threat to go ahead and show an Enhanced area for Saturday. Now, ours is slightly different than the from the SPC because we are going ahead and counting for the northward trend in the instability and warm sector that's showing up in the data. The SPC is trending this way with their outlooks, and we feel they will continue to do so. We're just getting ahead of the game and trying to establish where we think the more elevated threat is so we don't have to keep making frequent changes. We're not yet ready to take a more urgent tone with this yet, because there are still some questions about how widespread storms from Friday night may be and how they affect the instability on Saturday that we just can't answer yet. That's why we're not sounding alarms yet. We are treading very carefully to make sure you are still aware and prepared but that we're not sounding alarms unless we have to. However, if the trends we've seen in the data continue and it looks the same way by the time we get to tomorrow's data, we're likely going to have to head in that more urgent and serious direction with you.

Friday Overnight into early Saturday AM: Storms will have the potential to approach our area from west Tennessee and north Mississippi once we get past roughly 10pm or so. Don't like onto exact timeframes yet. That's just a general idea. There are questions about how widespread these storms may be, or if a capping lid may hold most of them back from developing. However, if storms are able to develop and sustain themselves late Friday night into early Saturday morning, they would have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes in our area of southern middle TN, northwest AL, and northeast MS.

Saturday Late AM to Evening: What happens here depends a lot on what happens the night before. If storms from Friday overnight aren't as widespread and/or they lift out of the area, that opens the door for a larger warm sector area and more instability (storm fuel) from late morning/midday into the afternoon and evening of Saturday. However, if Friday late night storms are more widespread and they get in here and just slow down and hang out going into Saturday, that would increase the flooding chances, but it would lower the severe storm and tornado risk. Things have been trending toward the more unstable and volatile direction. If this is indeed what happens, at sometime between the late morning and early afternoon, there would be the potential for redevelopment of scattered severe storms (the potential for them to be supercells) with all threat types possible, including the risk of tornadoes... before an eventual line of storms develops ahead of the cold front for the late afternoon and evening. Those storms would have the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes as well. If the more volatile direction the data has been trending toward is correct, this could be a situation where strong tornadoes are possible. However, it's still too soon to make that call just yet. We will start having a better handle on that that level of threat tomorrow (Wednesday) with new data then. We just want you aware of the general possibility.

As we have urged for a couple of days now, go ahead and take time now while the weather is quiet to review your family's safety plans. Make sure you know where you will shelter in the event a warning is issued. Make sure you have multiple reliable ways of hearing warnings, including something to wake you out of your sleep in the overnight and something with battery backup in case power fails. We will continue to make adjustments and updates to the forecast as the details all become more clear. Keep in mind that while we have been mentioning that we will start to get our first glimpses at the smaller-scale details by Wednesday, that doesn't mean that there may not be further adjustments and updates needed beyond then as we get closer. We will continue to get more and more confidence in the smaller-scale details the closer we get to Friday night and Saturday, even after we reach that critical benchmark in the timeline of tomorrow when we get our first glimpse at the smaller-scale details.

If you suffer from anxiety related to storms, going through the actions of preparing and make sure you're ready not only gives your mind something to focus on, but it also gives you power in the situation which helps you be better able to cope with the stress. We don't want you alarmed or scared. We want you prepared. If we're prepared and aware, we'll all get through it together!

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area for the possibility of severe storms for both Friday, March 14th (overnight locally) and Saturday, March 15th. These storms may come in multiple rounds between the overnight hours of Friday night and into a large part of Saturday. While it is too far out to be specific, data is in good agreement that the basic setup at play is one that would include all hazard types: damaging straight-line winds, hail, and the potential for tornadoes. Those threat types will be with both the Friday overnight storms and the Saturday storms. In addition, due to multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms and the signal that there may be some training storms on Saturday, the potential for flooding and flash flooding may increase by that time too.

While we will need a couple more days to start working out the magnitude of this threat (how serious it may or may not potentially be), this one will have stronger instability to work with than the system back on this past Tuesday, but it will have comparable dynamics and wind shear. For that reason, this coming system will likely pose a more elevated risk compared to that one. It's just too soon to figure out how much more elevated that may be. That means it's too soon to be yelling "outbreak" and other things that the usual suspects out there like to do to get you scared and providing them with the clicks and shares. This post isn't about alarming you. There is no reason to be alarmed or scared. We face threats like this every spring. This is a tap on your shoulder to let you know that there is a threat on the board that you need to pay attention to, so that you know you need to prepare (make sure you have a safety plan in place and know where your shelter location is, make sure you have multiple reliable ways of hearing warnings, etc.,) and to keep checking back periodically for forecast updates.

We have a decent amount of confidence in the basic idea that there's the potential for strong to severe storms in an extended period of time from the Friday overnight hours into much of Saturday. We just don't know the smaller-scale details yet (what threat level this will be, what specific areas have a higher or lower threat, the specific timeline for each round of storms, etc.,) We will be working to sort out those details over the coming few days! No reason to be worried or scared, just prepared. We'll get through it together as we always do!

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

LOOKING LONG TERM INTO MARCH

While Tuesday’s system is in our crosshairs, this probably won’t be the last system in the next few weeks that could give us severe weather potential. Watching the March 12-14th period as well. #alwx #tnwx #tnvalleyweather

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

Good morning! Kelli Rosson is in the weather center with your Sunday morning forecast. #tnvalleyweather #tnwx #alwx #mswx #weather

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

Very cold temperatures coming on in!

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

COLDER AIR SETTLING IN! Wind chill values are already in the lower teens this evening. Here is a look at air temperatures and "feels like" temperatures tonight through midday Thursday. Bundle up and limit your time outdoors.
#tnvalleyweather #tnwx #alwx #mswx

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

Update snowfall potential for tonight into tomorrow morning. Higher totals are expected north of the TN/AL state line. #alwx #tnwx #tnvallwyweather

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been expanded to include southwest TN and north MS until Noon Wednesday. This includes Hardin County TN and Tishomingo County AL. Portions of north AL may be added at some point this afternoon.
#tnvalleyweather #tnwx #alwx #mswx

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

⚠️ WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY issued for parts of the area that expire Wednesday at noon. More advisories will be issued later on for the other parts of the area. #alwx #tnwx #tnvalleyweather

[Tennessee Valley Weather @tnvalleyweather]

Snow will move into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, giving us a shot at some light accumulations. Generally, 1/2 to 2 inches is expected for areas across NW AL into S TN. Lower totals south, higher to the northwest.
#tnvalleyweather #tnwx #alwx #mswx

[Josh Kemp @JoshKempWX]

At my house in Ralph, at least 60mph winds + had to bail out!
@weswyattweather
@spann
@RichardWVUA23 @rzweather
@simpsonWVTM13
@tplottwx

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

⚠️ TORNADO WATCH issues for the majority of Alabama, until 4am! Stay weather aware! #alwx

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

New Tornado Watch will be issued soon for parts of Alabama. #alwx

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

What the heck is a Bomb Cyclone?? #weather #cyclone
https://t.co/DIluqDLqHi

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

We’re tracking another chance for severe weather tomorrow along with heavy rain and flooding! #alwx #forecast
https://t.co/BQXWCuCZFr

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

A LOT to talk about forecast wise! Cooldown coming and a possible hurricane

https://t.co/ttpH4Lv7PO

#alwx #tropics #forecast

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

Latest on Hurricane #Rafael ! #alwx #tropics

https://t.co/x451fGYTw4

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

ELECTION DAY FORECAST! What You Need to Know Before Voting Tomorrow!
https://t.co/yZi4TmhL82

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

Rafael could bring beneficial rain to the Southern US! #alwx #tropics
https://t.co/qorx7Xe5n3

[Taylor Plott @tplottwx]

TROPICS UPDATE: Invest 97L is down in the Caribbean and should be our next tropical system in the next couple of days. This will likely get into the Gulf next week as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane. #alwx #tropics

[Gary L. Harris @garyharris_wvua]

Impressive shelf cloud south of the Black Warrior River in Tuscaloosa @RichardWVUA23 @rzweather @BWRiverkeeper