@CarlosLozadaWP Where would you have put Georgia? I could see them behind Cincy but with 3 ranked wins vs 0 for ND, and a better loss (#1 vs #4), what’s the case for ND?
@csilverandgold Competence is domain specific. Trump almost perfectly divorces the competence needed to win office from the competence needed to govern.
If the probability of each event is independent, you calculate it by removing all other possibilities: 1 - prob(both events) - prob(neither event). 1-(.05*.03)-(.95*.97)=.077 or 7.7%
@NateSilver538 This is neat. Does toggling a state affect only predictions for that state, or induce changes in how other states are predicted? In other words, does setting PA for Trump mean simply that he wins there, or that he’s doing well enough more broadly to win PA?
@MattZeitlin What you describe is not a function of the electoral college, but stems from most states using a winner-take-all method of awarding electoral college votes. The electoral college does not require that.
"Rarely has the reputation of a leader fallen so far, so fast." Aung San Suu Kyi: Nobel laureate, democracy icon and defender of ethnic cleansing. https://t.co/zStaK75X3N