Trace Wolf

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[Trace Wolf @Trace_Wolf4]

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Jordin Canada over 10.5 points

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Jordin Canada faces off against the Aces tonight in what should be a high scoring competitive game. There is a close 2.5 point spread and a massive 185.5 total. That's a great game environment, yet we're getting one of the lowest lines for Canada all season.

This play is more so attacking the number, but I also do still like the matchup. Jordin has consistently closed at 11.5/12.5 pts most of the season, even when having a 10.5 line it was heavily juiced to the over. So just based on her closing lines, we're getting a nice buy spot here.

Canada has gone under in 3 straight, but came up 1 point short in 2 of those. Notably in the last 2 games she is shooting only 18% on FG's, we can't expect that to sustain considering her 44.0 FG% all season.

Getting into this spot specifically, I like the chances for Jordin to have success. Las Vegas is just a mediocre defense ranking in the middle of the pack in defensive rating and ppg allowed along with many other categories. Aces allow the 2nd most made FG's in non-restricted area paint, that's where 24% of Canada FG's come from.

LV also gives up the 2nd most pts to pick & roll handler, she has the ball in her hands alot coming up the court as the PG.

In a more recent sample Aces have been foul prone, allowing the 2nd most FT attempts in last 5 games (4th most in last 10 games). Canada does a great job of getting downhill and drawing fouls, 26% of her total pts come on FT's.

Pao Pao (backup gaurd) remains out which secures her minutes. With the entire starting lineup healthy when Jordin gets 29+ mins, she avg 12.1 ppg. Specifically in this sample against non top 3 DEF rating teams and FT defenses, Canada now avg 13.5 ppg going over this line in 9/11.

Chelsea Gray likely matches up with her some, she has quickness advantage with Chelsea being slower & older.

Widely available on many DFS sites and sportsbooks. Best line currently +100 on Hard Rock.
#WNBA #Gambling𝕏

[Trace Wolf @Trace_Wolf4]

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