Six candidates have qualified for the first GOP presidential primary debate after a pair of Fox polls were released this A.M., according to POLITICO's tracking: Trump, Haley, DeSantis, Scott, Ramaswamy and Christie.
The latest, from me and @POLITICO_Steve https://t.co/44fDmeIi5e
And to my longtime followers, this means the return of something big ... ~*~the spreadsheet ~*~ is back! We have big plans at @politico for debate tracking, but for now, old reliable returns https://t.co/DycikmAxCb
The FIRST Republican presidential primary debate qualifying poll is here! This MoCo poll counts, the RNC confirmed to @POLITICO_Steve and me, giving eight candidates their first qualifier — including two big Trump critics. More from me and Steve https://t.co/RdRaMxYSdG
Setting polling criteria for debate qualification isn't necessarily easy. But a strict interpretation of >=800 likely voters would be a tough threshold. I'm seeing 7 qualifying polls since Jan. 1! 4 of them from Trafalgar. https://t.co/spgOIPQQkB
The RNC announces the requirements for the first primary debate on August 23 and says "should enough candidates qualify to make it necessary, there will be a second debate on August 24."
More from the newsletter: Several news organizations including the New York Times and Politico opted against partnering with the RNC to host a GOP presidential debate over fears about cost and brand concerns.
https://t.co/lafvvGtdba
Context: For the first 2 debates in 2019, Democrats required candidates to poll at least 1% in 3 qualifying polls, *OR* have at least 65k donors. It wasn't until the 3rd debate that candidates had to meet both criteria (at that point, 2% in 4 qualifying polls + 130k donors).
If I can relive my 2020 debate nerdiness for a moment: The ~and~ part would be interesting. For the first round of DNC debates last cycle, it was a polling OR donor threshold for early debates, not both. GOP also isn't facing nearly as big of a field as Dems then
Scoop: The RNC is still finalizing the criteria presidential candidates will have to meet to make the first debate stage in August.
But the buzz is around two numbers: a 1% polling threshold and a 40,000 donor requirement.
https://t.co/yvqEtpJy0w
NEW: Trump is likely to sit out one or both of the first two GOP presidential debates, per several people who've spoken with him. @jonathanvswan me https://t.co/dmQRT1X06w
Not sure yet what's happening to me, but I'm heartbroken regardless. You guys see how smart the 538 staff is on a daily basis, but what you don't see is what incredibly good & kind people they are. It's been the pleasure of a lifetime to work with them.
Most interesting part of this — media partners are YAF and Rumble. Part of long-term RNC goal of making trad media less relevant in party debates. (See also RNC pulling out of CPD debates after 2020.)
Said it once. I’ll say it again & again. Polls of 2024 GOP primary mean nothing until we have debates. The Aug. ‘15 debate had 24M viewers. This will be as big or bigger. GOP voters will see for themselves if DeSantis has glass jaw or effective punch.
As we head into the 2024 GOP debate season and wait for full official rules, reported requirements include a nominee loyalty pledge, and some kind of donor and polling threshold.
For some context, these were the requirements for the 2016 GOP main stage presidential debates: