Tracking Error Guy

Long on markets, short on patience. Interested in rom-coms, geopolitics, and money. Cofounder at Quicksilver Capital w/ @dylandoubledown and @loganteix | NFA

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

https://t.co/4SUWM87L7b

[Brian Shannon, CMT ⚓️ @alphatrends]

such a great story

Leopold Aschenbrenner just got the full “little kid steps up to the big table” experience.

Writes the AI manifesto, raises a couple hundred mil, runs it up to $20-45B with max leverage on memory/chips/power names + software shorts.

Up 439% through June. Feeling invincible.
Then July happens.

Positions get smoked 30-55%. Margin calls hit. Entire public book gets packaged and sold to Citadel in one trade.

He thought he was playing poker. The house just took the chips.

thanks for playing!

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

People saying this is the next King of Kalshi.

[LuckHarvester @LuckHarvester]

Here’s my first post:

LeBron James will be going to the sixers.

Current odds are ¢16 per contract on polymarket.

Get in while you can.

I’ll see you when it’s confirmed.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

The Cursor acquisition is also going to be incredible in the next 1-2 years.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

All time lows hitting on $SPCX, might be worth a peak. Still trading at insane multiples, but as Starship begins to make consistent trips, I expect SpaceX to rip.

Also, the lockup periods are confusing with $SPCX, but the logic is simple: no one is selling 6 months from now.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

Semis and optics going to make a comeback. $GOOG down on increased capex, nothing new.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

@LoganTeix PayPal is an absolute bargain on the market right now, with massive FCFs. I'm a buyer here, not a seller.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

50% more ETF filings this year compared to last. Is there enough demand for these to be sustainable?

This is exactly what the SEC is worried about.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

https://t.co/4SUWM87L7b

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

One thing worth thinking about when starting in corporate America:

Companies pay what it takes to hire and retain the people they need, not a dollar more. Every incremental dollar of comp comes straight out of earnings, and at a public company trading at 25x, that dollar costs shareholders $25 of market cap.

Your comp isn't a share of the profits. It's the market price of replacing you.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

SEC's "request for comment" on ETF registration is basically telling everyone to launch whatever funds they want right now, as long as the exchanges are willing to list it.

Expect to see prediction market ETFs (Submersive), Active crypto, Anthropic ETFs, and many more.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

No doubt that healthcare and biotechnology are going to make extreme advancements over the next 5-10 years. With the binary outcomes with most of this small companies, I feel like it is extremely complicated to find an edge. you are competing against PhDs who understand actual trial protocols and the FDA. I still think the best way to find names are through 13Fs by managers like EcoR1, and other high conviction managers.

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

Biology will deliver most of the returns in the stock market in the next two decades

The entire revolution hinges on our ability to read the proteome

Only one company can do that and no one is even close

$NAUT

And it's valued at just $200M

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

If AB 1383 keeps moving through the California Senate (which I think it will), it actually makes me more bullish on equities.

Why?

If CalPERS and other public pensions are forced to pay out more, their return targets become even harder to hit. That increases the incentive to move away from lower yielding assets (bonds) and toward higher return investments (stocks, private equity, hedge funds).

More liabilities often mean a greater search for return.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

@CorgiFunds filing 330 more funds isn't because they think each one will succeed, it's because they hope a few will be massive hits.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

"The next wave of ETF innovation may not create the biggest opportunities for buyers, but rather create them for the shorts."

Learn about the trade leveraged ETFs are bringing us:

https://t.co/driYTnHDnr

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

https://t.co/BwIx95vuat

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

Bullish, has anyone checked out the chart?
This gotta be good right @the_chart_life

[Vlad Tenev @vladtenev]

The @TrumpAccounts customer growth has been faster than that of many of America's most successful and dynamic tech companies.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

Negligible - this shouldn't translate into U.S. markets tomorrow morning. The dip has been and will be bought, we have played this game before.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

@babyfolio I need them to lever up even more.

[Tracking Error Guy @trackerrorguy]

Old chart. With 74% of the world's population connected to the internet, this still keeps me bullish on the AI buildout. More will adopt, more investment is needed, more value will be created.