My forward guidance for 2024 and2025 has not changed since Oct 2022 (when bitcoin was below 20k!):
✅ rise into April 2024 halving
✅ halving around S2F model value $55k
✅ pump after halving
❔ 2024: BTC crosses $100k
❔ 2025: reach S2F target $0.5m (range $0.25m-$1m)
Everyone wants to tell you “this time is different”. Believe me this mantra is the same every cycle.
Although each cycle has its own characteristics and is never exactly the same, the solid foundations have remained the same since the creation of #altcoins. This being threefold:
(a) Alts don’t break out of their range until just before or just after the halving.
(b) A good time to start looking at positions in alts is approximately 6 months before the halving.
(c) The optimum time to take positions in #Bitcoin is at the 4 year cycle low which is always some time prior to the best time to take on further risk with #altcoins.
#Bitcoin is still trading +65% from its lows, price is ranging below an important resistance area which has already been tested twice..
How is this bearish ?? 🧐
#Bitcoin
The same ones who were calling for $12k-$9k EOY 2022 are now calling for $21k, $12k, $9k.
Vast majority in CT agrees to say that September will be a red 🔴 month. Confidence at its finest.
Well that's not what SMI MFI is telling me. 🤷♂️
Chris Moody's Market bottom indicator tells us clearly, that the #Bitcoin bottom is in the past!
When the green lights shut off, bottom time is over. We are now 6 grey candles deep putting us in a time when Bitcoin takes a small pause.
So many people seem to be foretelling of another major black swan to come. Maybe they forget how rare those are... and also that they can't be predicted by definition.
The 2020 black swan was the only one Bitcoin has ever seen. The people that were "worried about the macro" were the same ones that missed buying at 16.5k. Don't forget.
Bitcoin is on schedule for a mid-cycle lull, not a return to the bottom.
If this indicator remains on track, late 2025 is the time to watch for the cycle top!
Time in the #Bitcoin N28CT green year is running out, and with it so is time at the best cycle buying prices.
Green year has called the bottom at 15.5k in November 2022, and predicted the best buying prices.
It also came close to its next prediction, hitting the median price. This is half of the previous ATH. This year at $34,500.
Too many people are counting on another move to the lows, something that most people missed.
Blue year is up next, the year when Bitcoin spends most of its time around the median price.
Accumulation time is dwindling, it's time to stop dreaming of another black swan.
Stock-to-Flow model predicts ~$55k average bitcoin price this halving period. But S2F isn't perfect:
1) Most people understand that BTC price is not exactly $55k every day
2) Some people did NOT understand that average BTC price (currently $31k) can also greatly differ from $55k
Bitcoin's traditional dance around 2Y realized price (dark blue), a couple of months before a halving, and before the start of stage-2 bull market. Patience.