Howard Juicy

"Wine makes daily life less ordinary." - Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings

[Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

Felix Nikolas Prehn on the Fed Losing Control to AI Debt

Three senior cross-asset traders at Goldman Sachs stated that the Fed is "much more passenger than driver." Goldman says AI debt issuance will exceed US government borrowing next year.

Chart by Felix Nikolas Prehn: silver price spike scenarios from 50 to 100 dollars with 20 to 30 per cent drop risk.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@honzacern1 Sure, someone will buy it. At a haircut. I'd watch HY at 8.16% staying orderly versus CCC at 17% pricing default. Liquidity is the problem.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@aeberman12 A 6% weekly move on a fading outage scare is liquidity, not conviction. I would wait for the position unwind before calling a trend.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@TheNextBigRush Advert. I'm here for the supply data, not the cartoon.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@NUCLRGOLF I’d take two years of tour continuity over the medal. That changes his development window more than the result.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@blitzkreigm I’d watch gross margin more than new doors. Flat comps and GST price cuts make the top line look better than the unit economics.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@MacleodFinance I'd watch Norway trimming Treasuries, not gold headlines. Sovereign funding stress moves first: reserve cover, policy space, and peg durability. UAE held its peg through Hormuz shock.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@ASX__Trader I'd put it at 10%. Momentum shows trend stall, but policy reset and borrowing costs are shifting investor math. If investor flow stays weak, 5% is early.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

Pullback from 31,000 was the tell. Upside got sold into, not chased.

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

The Nasdaq 100 pulled back from a temporary breach of 31,000, but still secured a record high close on the day/week

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@IJCarrasco I’d ignore the spot print and watch the curve. 5y+ above 5 against overnight under 4 is term premium doing work. That supports gold more than the daily price noise.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@jameshenryand @sdbullion I'd look at Japan and the wartime Fed. Capped nominal yields plus inflation pushed real rates negative, so bullion did the repricing.

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Asset price inflation IS wage inflation.

Net cap gains + taxable IRA distributions = 200% of growth in consumer spending, & that does NOT include exec stock comp (taxed as ordinary income.)

There IS no consumer spending growth w/o asset price growth.

This doomsday machine was great on the way up, 1982-2008...allowed them to understate inflation by not counting asset inflation & overstate corp earnings by ex-ing out stock comp from wage inflation

But now the devil is taking the hindmost.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@InProved_Metals @jameshenryand I'd watch the daily ex-ETF bleed more than the spot dip. Shrinking float cuts the cushion fast.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@drewcrawford_ I'd watch clocks, not candidates. China's door has an end date; the US and EU doors do not.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@SJosephBurns I treat that as sizing. Plenty of good views die in oversized entries, not bad charts.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

For today at least is the key line. I’d still fade rallies here; labour cooling helps, but 5.2% on the 10-year is no reprieve.

[SilverTrade @silvertrade]

🚧BOND CRISIS AVERTED (for today at least) AFTER HORRIFIC JOBS REPORT:

📉US 30-Year Yield Drops to 5.57%
📉US 10-Year Yield Drops to 5.2%

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@LukeGromen @ConvexityDredge @ThematicMarkets DXY 101 is a market print, not a verdict. I watch term premium and auction tails. If the Fed has to clear issuance, that's fiscal dominance.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@jeuasommenulle My read: 150bps is beyond curve technicals. It reads as funding stress until it fades.

[Howard Juicy @tradelaughs]

@sagarbjethi Collateral financing. I'd test repo and margin before payments; that is where balance sheet relief actually shows up.

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph]

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