Thesis: Robinhood will a $300B company in 2030 (~3.5x from here) as #1 global trading platform, primarily through BUYING @tradingview which has 100M+ traders and integrating Robinhood Wallet.
Context: $HOOD has 28.4M funded accounts (vs 26.5M a year ago, ~8% YoY growth) and BEAR case is Robinhood has saturated the US market for retail investors. Robinhood can only upsell so many products to US consumers and has $5B in cash for M&A.
Argument: To become a $1T company, Robinhood NEEDs to grow users.
Growth drivers for $HOOD :
1️⃣ Trump accounts: kids as long-term top-of-funnel, get kids on, bring parents over from IKBR / Schwab /Fidelity. Add 5M funded accounts by 2030)
2️⃣ Robinhood Chain/Wallet: frame as “the Robinhood app for the entire world” and already 2M monthly transacting user. Add 10M funded accounts by 2030
3️⃣ International expansion: Robinhood expanding to Singapore, acquired WonderFi in Canada, etc, Add another 5M funded accounts.
⭐️ Key acquisition idea: Robinhood should buy TradingView for 3-5B in cash. TradingView has 100M monthly active traders globally (80% are outside U.S, so call it 80M MAUs)) last raised at $3B from Tiger Global.
Analogous to Binance buying CoinMarketCap as top-of-funnel. Robinhood can merge TradingView with Robinhood Legend and route traders to wallet, stocks, crypto. This can add 50M of funded accounts.
Model Assumptions: 100M funded accounts and ARPU ~$200, implies $20B revenue, $10B earnings and at 30x earnings that's $300B marketcap in 2030.
Full Model here: https://t.co/PER7JulI6C
Full Pitch here: https://t.co/rCgt7NMhDZ
$HIMS -
I love how the NVO and big pharma groups call HIMS a scam but have probably never used or talked to someone that is a customer.
The feedback that I get from HIMS customers are totally different than the X fear mongering.
@DrTomsLens Good point… was an early investor and still am with HOOD, I have found that CEOs that are founders have a lot more energy to fight the fight. @AndrewDudum and team have been executing solid, I don’t see that changing.
$HIMS will start selling a compounded version of the Wegovy pill for $49..
Stock spiked by 15% pre-market but I don’t think this is bullish long-term.
What will be value driver here?
Everybody can sell it as much as $HIMS and if $HIMS gets extra aggressive, litigation risk spikes.
Though a positive headline for the stock, it doesn’t improve the fundamental outlook in the long-term, and deteriorates the risk profile.
I would avoid at this stage.
BREAKING $HIMS Launches Multi-Cancer Early Detection Testing 🚀🚀🚀
Hims & Hers Launches Multi-Cancer Early Detection Testing, Connecting Customers to Cutting-Edge Proactive Care
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS), the leading digital health and wellness platform, launched access to the Hims & Hers Multi-Cancer Test by Galleri®, a simple cancer screening blood test that can detect a signal for 50+ types of cancer even before symptoms appear1. This multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test combines Hims & Hers’ scale with GRAIL’s innovative cancer screening technology to dramatically increase access to proactive care.
More than one in three people will develop cancer in their lifetime2, but many cancers can go undetected for longer than necessary especially before symptoms arise. While recommended screenings can catch breast, cervical, colorectal, prostate, and lung cancers early, other aggressive cancers, like pancreatic and ovarian, are often discovered at later stages when treatment is harder and outcomes may be worse. With advances like Galleri® that make cancer screening more accessible, this doesn’t need to be the case.
The Hims & Hers Multi-Cancer Test by Galleri® looks for a shared signal of 50+ types of cancer, including those without recommended screenings. In addition to recommended screenings, this simple blood test can be taken annually and enables customers to proactively screen for cancers that can develop even before symptoms.
“Even though cancer screening technology has advanced significantly, there are still too many life-changing diagnoses that should have been made earlier. Access to innovation is the key to changing that,” said Andrew Dudum, co-founder and CEO at Hims & Hers. “World-class care should be available to everyone, not just those with the time and resources to navigate the traditional system. Our platform brings together the best the healthcare industry has to offer in order to close the access gap, and our work with GRAIL is a critical part of delivering cutting-edge care to everyone.”
Galleri’s cutting-edge technology powers early detection of cancer signals in blood, including a prediction of where in the body the signal is likely coming from. The Galleri test does not detect all cancers, and false positive and false negative results can occur.
“Hims & Hers is at the forefront of making healthcare more attainable and impactful for those who want to take control of their health,” said Josh Ofman, MD, MSHS, President at GRAIL. “GRAIL believes making validated MCED tests available as a complement to recommended cancer screenings can help to increase cancer detection before cancers spread, improve outcomes, and enable this breakthrough technology to be available to more people. As a leader in digital health solutions, Hims is a natural partner to offer the Galleri test helping bring personalized, innovative healthcare to a broader population.”
“We know that cancers found early, before they’ve spread, can potentially have better outcomes than those caught later after the cancer has spread,” said Dr. Pat Carroll, Chief Medical Officer at Hims & Hers. “With access to this new, innovative screening technology, we’re empowering customers to tackle health challenges when treatment can be more manageable and more successful. This is a meaningful step toward helping people live happier, healthier lives.”
Starting today, Hims & Hers customers can add the Multi-Cancer Test by Galleri® onto existing Labs plans3 at a $250 discount to the Galleri list price4. For more information, visit https://t.co/WtXqAYPuhs and https://t.co/X25u1fEKYI.
$HIMS begin to expand on all preventative treatments and more personalized health solutions from scaling the verticals at which you can test and monitor your health.
Late 2026-2028: Peptides becomes mainstream and is the biggest market disrupter. LONG $HIMS
2020: COVID broke all trust between health care systems and People
2021: $HIMS launches
2022-2023: People are moving away from standard doctor practice and wanting more personalized health
2025: $HIMS Super Bowl commercial released emphasizing “Fixing a broken system”
2026:
We are glad to see that AMD finance finally stop doing stock buybacks. We been consistent that stock buybacks should only happen when there is nothing else to reinvest into. At the peak of AMD's stock buyback in Q1 FY2025, many AMD engineers were still complaining about the lack of internal R&D clusters. All of the $800 million Q1 FY2025 money could of gotten into investing in renting GPUs for R&D but instead went to buybacks. Since Q1/Q2 FY2025 The situation has gotten better as u can see that AMD has mostly stopped doing insane levels of stock buybacks. If AMD returns to doing insane levels of buybacks again instead of investing in accelerating their software bug squashing, AMD customers like OpenAI's @anujsaharan may have to reconsider how much of their 6GW AMD options contract they want to exercise