Trader_HF

🇩🇪🇨🇦Family and Markets! Father of three living in Canada ON, aspiring full time trader. Day trading ES. Seeker of swell.

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

A new interview is out with @wmd4x. Will has been trading for 20+ years, through 2008, COVID, and multiple Bitcoin cycles. We discuss many of the mistakes that keep new traders broke and the lessons that he learned over 2 decades. Check it out

https://t.co/Qw700zgpFi

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

Dan Ives @DivesTech just admitted he was "dead wrong" on $ORCL. Gil Luria called the top.

Now Luria is the one saying look again.

Oracle ran 200 to 330 on a single OpenAI backlog deal, then round-tripped to 140. The market now values the entire ~$630B compute backlog at zero. But OpenAI raised $122B, the largest raise ever, and narrowed to compute, so those bills are payable. Zero starts to look wrong the other way.

Jim Chanos @RealJimChanos, on Risk Reversal back on Jul 17, called the AI-compute backlog a mirage. This is the direct bet against that.

The read - at a zero backlog, any conversion at all is upside. The risk sits with OpenAI's commitments, not Oracle's execution.

Full exchange: https://t.co/iBhcSwKt6H

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

New blog!

Two weeks ago I broke down my thesis on the semiconductor short and how I wanted to approach it.

Since then we fully broke down and I thought we would take time to go over the developments and how I traded through it.

Execution charts, news, datapoints and more.

Let me know what you think!

https://t.co/lamvbkYfI4

[jack schwager @jackschwager]

The audio for the new MW book Market Wizards: The Next Generation has just been published. Note there is a pdf with charts that accompanies purchase of the audio. There is a new narrator for this book, Hopper Stone. I believe he did a superb job.

https://t.co/TyMJSI6eG8

[Trader_HF @TraderHF1]

@danshep55 Send it

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

I’m surprised crypto even thought tokenization would go through in the form the headlines presented this week.

The SEC’s reported “innovation exemption” apparently opened the door for third parties, unaffiliated with the companies themselves, to create tokenized versions of public stocks (Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, etc.) across multiple venues and products, without issuer consent or approval.

Being able to spin up not one but multiple synthetic wrappers or crypto-native versions of the same company’s shares, traded on parallel rails with lighter oversight, never mind the exotics and perps on top, feels like it could easily lead to the equivalent of 2008’s CDOs.

You’d get unlimited notional exposure, layered leverage through DeFi primitives, and products that often lack proper settlement, custody linkage, or the same shareholder rights as the traditional market, all while retail might think they’re buying the “real” thing.

Tokenization is still the path forward, but it needs to be done to complement and improve the current system, with clear guardrails, proper integration where possible, and real economic rights, not just create another layer of unchecked gambling and market fragmentation.

The news today is not negative in my opinion, it’s moving right along the institutional and gov backed line. We do not want another round of 20/21 shitcoins, scams and alike, we want a solid system that is unlikely to fail that will democratize owning US-listed businesses for the world.

The goal should be to enable fractional shares, worldwide access, lower transaction costs, instantaneous settlement, and true 24/7 global participation, all while preserving transparency, proper custody, and the economic rights that actually matter.

The thought that the casino view was fully logical to most shows the disconnect between the old 2020/21 vision and what’s actually happening and being built around the clarity act and institutionalization of blockchain tech.

[Patrick Rooney @patrickrooney]

Compute futures and the compute futures curve are coming.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

As I have been saying .....literally for weeks now on @NTLiveMedia

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The semiconductor ETF, $SMH, posted -$2.3 billion in outflows in the week ending May 7th, the largest weekly outflow since the fund launched in 2011.

This follows +$1.5 billion in inflows in the preceding week, the 3rd-largest on record.

Previously, in April, semiconductor ETFs, $SMH and $SOXX, attracted +$4.7 billion in combined inflows, the largest monthly intake on record.

Meanwhile, the 3x leveraged long Semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, posted -$842 million in outflows in the week ending May 7th, its 5th consecutive weekly withdrawal.

Over this period, investors have withdrawn -$8.9 billion in total.

Retail investors are cashing-in massive profits on semiconductor stocks.

[bodila @51bodila]

Ex-Goldman Sachs Quant at $2M/year exposed Wall Street's biggest secret

- the same system that erased $862 BILLION in 5 minutes during the 2010 flash crash

45-min documentary about one formula that killed entire companies

Bookmark & watch - this is LITERALLY the best lecture on Haim Bodek

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

$IGV

[Lance Breitstein 🇺🇸🌎 @TheOneLanceB]

You can’t call yourself a trader and NOT watch this interview w @ptj_official!!

What a gift! 🙏

[Trader_HF @TraderHF1]

@David_Stendahl Tow truck

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

On Wednesday 775k+ traders had their account liquidated, equal to $8.6B worth of crypto - Bybt

CZ hands

[Trader_HF @TraderHF1]

Saturday wisdom #trading #LONGEVITY

[Tom Dante @Trader_Dante]

One of the reasons I do not suffer FOMO is because in 21 years of trading I’ve discovered that almost every player in this game fails to keep the money they’ve made.

A persons 15 minutes of fame does not excite me.

I assume, usually correctly, they will end with nothing.

[Stan Gluzman @CiocanaTrader]

@BrianLeeTrades I use a multiple of an “avg day” instead of “avg green” day. Accounts for red days. Works better when you need it most (mkt gets choppy and i have lots more red days), size down faster. Avg green day formula works better when market is really hot and you wanna size up responsibly

[Brian Lee @BrianLeeTrades]

For those curious about how @CiocanaTrader managed his max losses a year ago, not sure if it changed but I imagine it's the same.

[Trader_HF @TraderHF1]

@NanaimoTrader @TendexCapital Haha that’s for sure!! Love it! Cheers to that, have a great one guys!

[Tendex @TendexCapital]

Trading isn’t explicitly mentioned in this episode, but there’s a ton of practical advice for managing (and thinking about) one’s response(s) to anxiety, stress, etc.

Worth listening to for those of you who compete in high performance mental arenas.

https://t.co/S3fbej15pv