PCE report squarely in the stagflation camp with return to spending contraction and still too high inflation despite a touch of moderation.
Real demand returned to a negative read (below) as both goods and services demand contracted.
Core PCE inflation in February
+4.6% over the previous 12 months
+4.9% over the previous 3 months, annualized
+4.5% over the previous 6 months, annualized
i just pushed send on the April edition of the #MonthlyChitChat and got it written like lightning this morning and in inboxes the same day! if you didn't get it, you're not subscribed! cost = free
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We're back to over 50% of $SPX stocks above their 200-day moving averages. This tells me that most stocks are in uptrends (as loosely defined by above/below the 200-day MA) and that is more characteristic of bull phases than bear phases!
The S&P 500 is about to be up >5% for two consecutive quarters. You just don't see this type of thing in bear markets.
This has happened 23 other times since 1950 and a year later stocks were higher 20 of them (87.0%).
The average return a year later was 13.5%.
new Friday webinar! the market is zigging away from those zagging in fear... let's check in on Europe, Nasdaq, the $DXY and some of the growthy spots try to get moving... crude had a big week, BUT... #WhereDoWeStand $QQQ $FEZ
email [email protected] to subscribe...
$DXY i've had this line drawn at $103...
we're below it now... remember ALL risk assets have been inversely correlated with U.S. dollars... a falling dollar is #bullish (for everything else)
Thinking this duration 'crisis' is like the GFC is off by an order of magnitude:
- 08 cycle losses were around 1tln against about 1.2tln of bank capital coming in.
- Today's unrealized (vs. capital), unhedged bond losses are on the order of 250bln vs. bank capital of 2.2tln.
Drop in S&P 500 Financials' performance relative to broader index starting to mimick speed during COVID plunge
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
And just like that, Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index went from loose (green) to the tightest since Mar 2020. Gives the Fed an excuse to pause if it wants to...