Treering2k

Won't give up.

[Treering2k @treering2k]

Short, I hope succinct summary how I see societal dynamics unfold theoretically for keeping civilisation afloat; which obstacles to this project I see, and which deadlines must be kept. I end with considerations regarding an ethical Plan B, and an outlook what to do. 🧵or read 🖼️

[Treering2k @treering2k]

Apart from lethal particulate matter, burning biomass or FF release NOx, precursor for lethal ozone, precursor for OH radicals.
OH radicals💚bomb methane to bits.
While transport weans off oil/NOx, a big source for OH radicals vanishes. But a warming Earth burps ever more CH4.

[Wolfgang Blau @wblau]

More than 8 million people die each year from fossil-fuel related air pollution. Even if carbon capture could ever address the Co2 emissions of fossil fuels (it won't), the health damages of fossil fuels would remain.
Air pollution on its own is already reason enough for transitioning to renewables.
https://t.co/OTz6B8YpID

[Treering2k @treering2k]

@wblau 🇩🇪currency reform 1948 changed financial facts.🇬🇧rationing 1940-1956 too, when materials & manpower got allocated to needs-only companies. UK cd do it again. Germany not w/o breaking EU law. Money, law & ethics are cultural concepts and easy to change. Planetary boundaries aren't

[Treering2k @treering2k]

@DrSimEvans 😳I read somewhere in 2023, likely Carbonbrief,🇨🇳solar boom was unintended: a mere byproduct from the real estate crash due to which counties tried hard to attract tax revenue from new, private companies. Private meant solar. Do we know if China plans to "correct" /reverse this ?

[Simon Evans @DrSimEvans]

Here's another way to view the huge, 78% year-on-year surge in China's solar power output in May 2024

The 94TWh it got from solar that month is more than most countries get in a whole year

[Treering2k @treering2k]

@flowinguphill @MichaelEMann @DrJamesEHansen And the path toward the crash is exponential. Also due to the supply chain complexity. One year, half the world still sorta works on the surface, but it has tipped and 5ys on order implodes. Rural survivors only, and in cultures with living knowledge of no-tech or low-tech life.

[Treering2k @treering2k]

@flowinguphill @MichaelEMann @DrJamesEHansen A collapse scenario sees all cities depopulated, knowledge and skills for the complex supply chains die, the administrative heads, ie the cities, implodes. Communication breaks. Nothing can be restarted, not even on a 1950 tech level. A collapse is finite due to deep complexity.

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

Forecasting the number of Atlantic hurricanes and named storms appears to be a doomed profession in global weirding: the difference between actual and forecasted numbers is increasing. Only the trend in false forecasted # of major hurricanes hasn't changed, it's still a game of🎲

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

🧵3/3 But hiding their intention behind unfeasible BECCS is really not useful at all for the purpose of RCPcollapse research. Because the expanding biomes after the crash not only massively draw down ppm but their sheer existence also changes rain and °C, well, everything really.

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

SSP5-3.4-Overshoot is a bit like my proposed #RCPcollapse for research what happens to CO2 ppm and regional climates when the civilisation crash depopulates tech-dependent countries and all cities, and when trees massively draw down CO2, like in the 1610 and WW2-events.

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@NorbertPrinz Cool dass Heitzig / @PIK_Klima gefragt wurde! Ihm möcht ich gern sagen, dass auch Klimaforschung für ein RCPcollapse nötig ist, weil Überlebende Recht auf Vorabinformation haben, wie das Wetter u Klima bei und nach der Biom-Expansion nach dem Crash werden:https://t.co/RQz80y2afe

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@RichterHedwig @fritzfelgentreu Klimakrise ist nicht demokratisch. Bernd hat im Juli 2021 nicht erst ne Abstimmung gehalten, er hat einfach Belgien, NRW und RLP geflutet. Fertig. Und die klimadoofen Betroffenen haben bei BTW21 mehrheitlich wieder die CDU-Klimaleugnerin gewählt. Demokratie mit Klimadoofen? Pfft!

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

Wow. He's revising his preprint due to this March paper: https://t.co/gP4UuIp6P4 which studied methane emissions in the US major shale gas regions using data from airplane obs: 4.6% of total gas production is leakage, excluding leaks in distribution chain. Other countries worse?!

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@phoenix_de @FuestClemens @ifo_Institut Ah meine Güte. Müsst Ihr für solche Leute echt immer noch den Verstärker mimen? Noch nicht mal ne Einordnung darüber, ob das, was Fuest sagt, Hand und Fuß haben kann angesichts eskalierender Klimakrise. Werdet doch bitte endlich klimaklug und lasst die Folgenleugner endlich weg.

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@UNFCCC Please do not use URL-shorteners. People need to see before clicking where they might land. Hiding the destination from a population used to blindly clicking URL-shorteners, opens the door to espionage, malware, ransomware and desinfirmation. Bad for individuals and societies.

[Giulio Mattioli @giulio_mattioli]

...which is what we've done for the past 20 years or so. How did that go? You can see it below. Every single IATA SAF target has been missed by a mile. And every new target was less ambitious than the former https://t.co/xW9IZSp6ec

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@giulio_mattioli En lieu of passenger statistics, we can look at CO2 emissions from domestic and international aviation for 2023 and 2024 compared to 2019. And these figures might explain the short-sighted, capitalist, profit-growth-driven tantrums the guy is throwing. https://t.co/s4XEiH0TkP

[anlomedad 🐘 @[email protected] 🐘 @anlomedad]

@giulio_mattioli -2% or -7Mt in domestic and -9.6% or -60Mt in international aviation in 2023 compared to 2019 is some serious unplanned degrowth. Unmanaged degrowth makes workers worse off, and in a downward spiral they can't predict. Managed degrowth like rationing and manpower shift is req'ed.