trollmaster5000

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i C/BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i D/BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i C / A / Baledpotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i C/B/B/BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i Darvish/Nola/Woodruff/BakedPotato007

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i Darvish/Nola/Woodruff/BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i Merril Kelly / BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i Cin / BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i C.Santana/BakedPotato07

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@mlb9i A/ BakedPotato07

[Notify Picks @NotifyPicks]

The Final Day of Picksmas 🏈🎄

Presented by @calebbets3 and @QuentinLocks

Every LIKE or RETWEET enters you a chance at the GRAND PRIZE 🎁

PODs:
- Mixon o19.5 Rec Yds (MGM -130)
- Pacheco o41.5 Rush Yds (CZR -120)

Pacheco: Chiefs are at a win and clinch No.1 seed spot vs the Tomlin-led Steelers.

In the last 5 weeks, there is a glaring aspect of the Steelers defense, and it is their rush defense:
Vs Man/Gap Concepts: 2.22 YPC allowed to RBs (Best)
Vs Zone Concepts: 5.95 YPC allowed to RBs (Worst)

Since the team has had both Pacheco and Hunt in their rotation, which is the last 3 weeks, they have ran each back out of a zone concept on at least two/thirds of their attempts. Pacheco has also had a glaring discrepancy of his numbers from those concepts:
From Man/Gap: 1.89 YPC (22.2% Success Rate)
From Zone: 3.83 YPC (59% Success Rate)

Works perfectly. Granted, neither of the KC backs have thrived (>30% success) from the Man/Gap scheme. With KC being a zone-dominant rushing attack this season and last, that is a great strength.

His prior two seasons of 4.9 and 4.6 YPC warrant some belief in progression from his sub 3 YPC the last two games.

Mixon: Running backs feast in the receiving game against the Ravens. They are allowing the 3rd MOST receiving yards to opposing running backs this season.

We targeted Jaylen Warren on Saturday and he finished with 44 receiving yards and soaring over his line. Mixon has 18+ receiving yards in 9/12 games this season. He is averaging 24.3 receiving yards per game.

This game is at home for the Texans. He is over this line in ALL 5 home games this season. He is averaging 31.4 receiving yards per game at home.

The Ravens have allowed the 2nd FEWEST rushing yards to opposing running backs. They are graded as the 7th best run defense according to PFF. They should shut Mixon down on the ground.

[Notify Picks @NotifyPicks]

DOUBLE PICKSMAS IS BACK 🎄

2 Prizes today to people who LIKE or RETWEET 🎁

PODs:
- Ant o6.5 1Q Pts (ESPN -115)
- Ivey o14.5 Pts (DK -120)

Ant back home in the A with the whole family showing out for the holidays. Hawks are 29th vs PnR Ball Handlers, 27th vs Pullup Freq% and allow the most 3PA in the league.

1Q/1H markets most viable with blowout a possibility.

Ivey with 26 Points last Lakers meeting and seemingly off minutes restriction with 30 minutes and 20 points in his first game back from injury. Averaging 18.3 points this season in games with 25+ minutes

[Notify Picks @NotifyPicks]

PICKSMAS IS HERE. Let's make it double ‼️🎁

2⃣ People who LIKE or RETWEET will win a prize if Picksmas cashes

PODs:
- Duren o16.5 P+R (FLIFF -130)
- McBride o8.5 Pts (MGM -115)

Duren covered this mark in 89.7% of games (52/58) with 20+ minutes last season.

Recently, Duren has had two games where he converted on just 3 of 18 chances and 7 of 19 chances. However, his actual deferred rebound numbers have not increased, and when watching back film he's simply getting high chances from effort on good positioning on offensive end. Having high chances vs Knicks (horrible C Reb matchup with KAT) and UTAH (shot lights out) is so impressive, because well over half of those are just the offensive end.

Now we get PHX, who allow the 10th most RPG to Cs and possess (imo) the laziest Center in the league. This is why they surrender the 10th most Pts to Putbacks and PnR Roll Men.

The high effort Centers (>20% Freq in Putbacks and Cuts) have killed Nurkic:
- Clingan 19 PR in 19 min
- Kessler 22 PR
- Gobert 21 PR
- Gafford 22 PR in 23 min | Gafford/Lively 31 PR in 39 min

That is the entire sample, and all cashed. Each of these guys ended the game with a >17% usage rate, which is a near 5% increase in usage for all of these guys. Kessler, Gobert and Clingan all have usage rates within 11-15%, same as Duren (14.9%).

Duren has covered his 8.5 Pt line in 80% of games (12/15) with 12% usage or higher.

McBride gets a money matchup vs NOP who rank in the B5 against Spot Up shooting, Transition play and ATB play. We always get nice minutes upside when blowouts are possible, with NYK last beating NOP by 33.

Deuce with 20+ minutes has only missed in one game with at least 35% shooting vs below average Spot Up defenses.

[Notify Picks @NotifyPicks]

WELCOME BACK TO NOTIFY PICKSMAS

Get your chance at our next PRIZE with a LIKE or RETWEET on this post 🎁

POD: Mark Williams o15.5 PRA | Fliff -130

Pivot to 15.5 PR if book too juiced. No injuries this time 🙏

Last time Coach Lee spoke on Mark Williams' minutes, he said he was handling the load well and it was time to bump it up a bit and see how he does. That was December 12th, where he bumped from 11 minutes to 17min in the last 2 games. He played those 11 minutes for 2 games, 17 minutes for 2 games now, and with last game being such a dominant performance defensively, a good time to lobby up to 20.

His last 2 games have both been blowouts by the time his final rotation would come, leaving him with no 4th Q minutes at all this season.

Last season, Williams 30.7 PR per meeting vs WSH, and that was in just 27.6 minutes per game - so a 1.11 PR/min average would still put him at a floor of 18.9 PR with just 17 minutes. LaMelo back is also huge for his game, as he went from 18 PR in games without him to 23.6 with him.

The Wizards are horrible everywhere. When Sarr was the starting Center, he allowed the highest Rim FG% in the league. Valanciunas has been benched once again. WSH is:
- 22nd vs Rim, 25th vs PITP
- 29th in DRTG, 29th in FTA
- 23rd vs Putbacks (top playtype last season)
- 29th vs PnR Roll Man, 25th vs Transition

Horrible. This season, Mark is notching 69% of his points from Cut (37% Freq) - which may change back down to the 24% that it was last season (24.6% Freq), but still a worthwhile number. Here are top cutting Cs points per 20 min vs WSH (min 20% Freq):
- Jarrett Allen 13.2 PPG
- Lively 6 Pts (17 PR), Gafford 16 Pts (23 PR)
- Clarke 8 PPG (14.5 PR)
- Capela 17 PR/gp (over in 3/3)
- Goga/Moritz 22 PR each

Note that Mark Williams has a >18% usage in all of him games, higher than every player in that sample, so he should be even more effective in his minutes than the guys watered down.

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@kyriecenterig @NEUTRLSCO Gimme that jersey

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@All_Things_Mavs @kickscrew Gotta be the lefty hook from the free throw line game winner

[All Things Mavs | Jimmy C Hoops @All_Things_Mavs]

I have partnered with KICKS CREW to give away a pair of Kyrie Irving's KAI 1 Garden States 👀

How To Enter:
✅️ Follow @kickscrew
✅️ Like & Repost
✅️ Comment your favorite Kyrie moment! ♾️

Winner announced on 7/27!🤞

[trollmaster5000 @trollmaster5004]

@UnderdogPicks #underdogpicks AzureDreamer

[All Things Mavs | Jimmy C Hoops @All_Things_Mavs]

🚨 GIVEAWAY TIME 🚨

I've partnered up with
@PlaybookProduct to giveaway a coffee mug of THE Luka shot!

1 Like = 1️⃣ entry
1 Retweet = 5️⃣ entries

They have some super fun stuff here: https://t.co/UNrd94phBD

🐴 Get 10% OFF With my personal promo code: ALLTHINGS 🐴

#MFFL #Luka

[Underdog Picks @UnderdogPicks]

Set tonight's promo for Luka Doncic 🤝

For every 500 reposts, we will discount Luka's Points projection by 3.0 ⬇️