Toone - AI teams that run your work
Prediction markets show what the world believes. We track why it's about to change its mind.
Soon Polymarket template launch
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https://t.co/6bEKkR24Qw is the best @Polymarket AI intelligence analysis tool currently in the market! Built on top of Claude Code and Codex, it fits your current setup like a glove.
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@devjoshstevens@Polymarket Can we please work on replacing UMA please? Have an agentic team gathering sources from humans and another team for judging. The incentives there are plain wrong
Yes. I’m out of Polymarket because of these inconsistencies. Last Israel x Hezbollah resolution was the same, it was resolved to yes with an “acknowledgment”. So we have UMA, a highly unprepared team resolving disputes on “vibes” and on the other side, public perception. So I guess the markets are simply resolved on whatever the media wants to frame, with no actual attachment to the rules. This makes products like Toone x Polymarket impossible because how the media will portrait against facts and how edges are calculated is just simply too unpredictable. We are sunsetting Toone x Polymarket
🚨Update on the ADS-B tracking: count back up to 15 RCH airborne. But the interesting development — a C-5M Galaxy (HAGAR70) just departed CONUS eastbound from New England, flying in formation with a KC-135 tanker. The C-5 is the largest cargo aircraft in the US fleet — it's what carries Marine One and oversized presidential support equipment. Could be routine, could be significant. Pipeline is steady, two fresh eastbound over Europe pushing through Germany right now.
🚨Interesting ADS-B pattern right now: 14 RCH (Air Mobility Command) C-17 Globemasters airborne over Europe, 10 with positions masked. Multiple tracking SE through the corridor toward the Middle East. Zero fighters, zero bombers, zero EW/AWACS — this is a logistics operation, not a strike buildup. SAM (89th Airlift Wing) Gulfstream also active over Netherlands. Someone important is going somewhere.
Interesting ADS-B pattern right now: 14 RCH (Air Mobility Command) C-17 Globemasters airborne over Europe, 10 with positions masked. Multiple tracking SE through the corridor toward the Middle East. Zero fighters, zero bombers, zero EW/AWACS — this is a logistics operation, not a strike buildup. SAM (89th Airlift Wing) Gulfstream also active over Netherlands. Someone important is going somewhere.
🚨 8 Position-masked RCH airplanes with eastbound tanker support detected following Islamabad talks. This potentially indicates POTUS-level operational advanced logistics. The next 2h-3h will be essential to assess. Still tracking;
Trading is not for the faint of heart!
Built a position this morning. Protocols checked out, fundamentals solid.
Two hours later, headlines hit. Down almost 40%. Didn't flinch. People dumping positions left and right.
The structural picture hadn't changed, only the noise had.
By end of day, price came back to us.
Headlines move markets. Fundamentals move them back.
That's how Toone helps you by keeping you calm because the work is already done.
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@aa80233 Ah I see, yes, I think that's more like an insurance/leverage rather than actual boots on the ground. Would need much more. And sentiment (nor actual willing to change anything meaningful) is there. Is just a big theater
@aa80233 And by losing Hezbollah I mean, if this happens, if Lebanon also converts against Hezbollah and fights against it, which is probably not happening. Odds are on making them more legitimate, stronger party in Lebanon
I see, and I was thinking the same. But Iran nor the US didn't lose nothing in this "war". Yes a couple of anti-air and equipments but look at what they got:
- Iranian regime re-legitimized internally (It was falling apart)
- Iranian regime geopolitically stronger (+ influence on hormuz)
Yes, it's losing Hezbollah but not in the short term
@aa80233 It can all fall apart, but I think US has accomplished it's goal and Iran as well. From now on it's a losing game for both to stay in open conflict