Polyagent

Get AI powered insights on Prediction Markets. Now supporting @Base.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

@ibidbottom @PancakeSwap @cz_binance It is impossible to lock our tokens until $POLYAGENT is listed on @PancakeSwap. That is how the mechanics of @fourdotmemezh bep-20 tokens work.

Once our token migrates, it will be listed automatically on Pancakeswap and we will lock our supply.

[Polymarket Developers @PolymarketDevs]

The Polymarket Builders’ ecosystem is exploding in popularity.

Over 116 projects across 14 categories… which are your favorite?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

“Check the Polymarket” — Tom Brady

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: "I'm watching this Polymarket ticker go by, and it's so tempting" — Sam Altman

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Genny run.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

@shayne_coplan Generational run.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

What if?🤔

[Shayne Coplan 🦅 @shayne_coplan]

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
$SOL
$POLY 🤔

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Big things coming ✈️

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

We are excited to announce that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — the parent company of @NYSE, is making a $2b strategic investment at a $9b post-money valuation.

Together, we’re building the next evolution of markets.

A special thank you to all those who have supported us till now.

This is just the beginning 🦅🔮

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Polyagent predicted this a month before it happened. 🤖🧠

https://t.co/hXMDagHtVW

[Bill Maher @billmaher]

The federal government is in a shutdown. Only vital services will continue, such as Social Security payments, mail delivery, and the prosecution of political enemies.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

🏃

[good @thenarrator]

The prediction market supercycle is in full effect if you haven’t noticed.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Believe.

[dedsec @dedsec]

believe in polymarket szn

polymarket is consistently leading the prediction markets space rn

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Prediction markets are heating up as Q4 approaches.
The tides are shifting and Polyagent is about to lead the way.

Massive updates are coming to our infrastructure and agent. To everyone who’s supported us from day one, thank you.

Q4 will mark the beginning of a new era.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Upwards and onwards.

[Matthew Modabber @MatthewModabber]

Imagine explaining to someone in 2019 that one of the hottest startup verticals in 2025 would be “apps built on Polymarket.”

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

👀

[Polymarket Developers @PolymarketDevs]

The Polymarket Builders’ ecosystem is exploding in popularity.

Over 116 projects across 14 categories… which are your favorite?

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Building it.

[Yoshi @tradefoxintern]

We need CoinGecko for Prediction Markets:

- Discoverability is a mess on Prediction Markets today. Too many markets being created and resolved everyday. It's hard to parse through so much information

- Filtering and Sorting are not enough. Users need customised feeds tailored to their preferences and trading history

- Users need to be able to easily create multiple watchlists + Watchlists should update smartly e.g. If you have a $BTC weekly price prediction market in your watchlist, your watchlist will automatically add the next week's market and remove the previous one after resolution

- Users should get more streamlined data which gives them all the relevant market info (Price changes, volume, liquidity) in one line

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Interesting. Give this a read, they bring up some great points.

[PJ @Prithvir12]

Prediction Markets need Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)

TLDR:

- Modern portfolio theory showed investors how to balance assets by correlation, not just returns.

- Prediction markets don't yet have that toolkit.

- Event parlays, correlation matrices, and portfolio-level hedging could change that.

1. Covariance Killed Stock Picking

Before the 1950s, investing was mostly stock-picking.
Traders focused on individual names, chasing absolute returns.

Then Harry Markowitz introduced Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).
His key insight: what matters is not just return, but how assets move together.
- Mixing low or negatively correlated assets reduced volatility without cutting returns
- This gave rise to the efficient frontier: the maximum return for a given level of risk

The impact was massive:
- Asset allocation
- Risk management
- Entire industries like mutual funds, ETFs, and risk-parity

Finance evolved from stock-picking to true portfolio construction.

2. Independence Is a Mirage

Prediction markets today resemble finance before MPT. Each contract is priced and traded in isolation:
(1) Will Candidate X win?
(2) Will inflation exceed 3 percent?
(3) Will Bitcoin trade above $100k?

A trader might hold many contracts, but there is no structured way to manage a portfolio of beliefs. The following position are tightly linked, yet markets treat them as separate risks.
- Trump wins presidency
- Republicans win Senate

The same is true in macro. These markets are correlated, but traders lack tools to size or hedge across them.
- Fed cuts by September
- Unemployment above 5 percent

The result is stacked exposures, shallow liquidity, and ad hoc hedging.

3. Toward Event-Level Hedging

Prediction markets could borrow directly from MPT:

(1) Parlay Engines: Traders combine events into a single position (“Republicans win Senate and Trump wins presidency”), unlocking multi-leg exposure similar to sports betting but with institutional liquidity.

(2) Correlation Matrices: Platforms publish co-movement data for events such as state races versus presidential outcomes or inflation versus rate cuts, giving traders visibility into overlapping risks.

(3) Portfolio Dashboards: Instead of seeing isolated bets, traders view exposures on a “belief frontier,” plotting expected return against variance and enabling systematic rebalancing.

(4) Synthetic Hedges: Market makers create structured products such as going long a basket of state elections while shorting the national outcome, similar to long-short sector plays in equities.

These tools would let traders manage prediction exposures the same way investors manage equities or bonds: not as one-offs, but as a portfolio.

4. Why It Matters

Without correlation hedging, prediction trading remains shallow and retail-focused. With it:

> Liquidity improves because market makers can offset correlated exposures instead of pulling out.

> Institutional capital enters because hedge funds think in terms of risk buckets and cross-hedges, not isolated punts.

> Innovation multiplies through volatility spreads on probabilities, ETFs of events, and conditional baskets.

5. The Markowitz Engine, Please

Who will build the first portfolio engine for event risk?

The platform that turns raw event contracts into correlated portfolios will do for prediction markets what Markowitz did for investing.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

Build build build.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

This week will mark a major step forward for Polyagent.

The team has been building nonstop, and we’re excited to share what’s coming.

Thank you to everyone who’s been here from the start.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

I think for Prediction markets to scale, we need a little more clarity around exactly what we would like to do with the value of truth whilst there’s still a price on them.

Whether it’s to trade them like they’re assets themselves or the underlying representation of another asset. E.g, are Yes/No shares their own assets or are they the underlying representation of an asset like “Will Trump Fire Lisa Cook” ?

For example, Stocks are their own assets. They’re pegged directly to a company’s valuation and we have financial systems designed around them such as Stock trading themselves but also Options Trading where you can Put/Call options however you see fit in that instance.

Memes/Tokens are also another asset class that stand on their own, they’re underlying representations of different narratives for sure but fundamentally, they’re their own assets and then mechanisms such as Leverage, Swaps, etc are applied to them through different exchange platforms.

The question we have to ask ourselves is, are we approaching Yes/No values as independent assets or an existing mechanism on the value of truth - just like Options Trading exist on the value of Stocks.

I believe clarifying this can allow us develop more efficient solutions to the problems we currently have, ranging across Liquidity, Tools, User Experience, etc.

Using Options Trading as an example, the underlying stock serves as a fundamental asset basis - with Prediction Markets, the market topics serve as the underlying asset. Trump firing Lisa Cook, Mr Beast raising 40m, War strikes, etc are all individual topics with values with respect to those who are concerned.

People within the Fed or have large businesses favored by Lisa Cook’s administration are definitely concerned about whether she’s fired or not. Mr Beast, his audience and sponsors are concerned about his raising goal, and companies who sell weapons, people caught in war zone environments are also definitely concerned about whether a missile is going to strike a particular location. Just like how people involved in Tesla or Nvidia ecosystem are concerned about what happens, which is then reflected in the stock value.

These market topics definitely hold value that involves a lot of major stakeholders, it’s up to us as contributors to the ecosystem to design systems as efficient as possible, in order to scale Prediction Markets to standing as its own asset class ⇨ A mechanism for Trading with Unresolved Truths as the underlying asset.

I mean, “a mechanism for Trading on the truth”. That sounds like something everybody knows but it goes much deeper than that. There’s still a lot of ambiguity within UX designs, Liquidity Provision and potential features to add and that is because we haven’t arrived at a consensus on what specific category these assets should fall into.

Inevitably tho, we will reach a threshold entropy value at some point that’d help us forcefully decide what it needs to be if we don’t make a decision ahead. Nevertheless, it’s very interesting times ahead for the Prediction Markets ecosystem and we at Polyfactual will be doing our best to contribute to that to the best of our abilities.

[Polyagent @trypolyagent]

News + smart tracking is almost here.

This will be a gamechanger for the poly eco and don't say we didn't tell you so.

[MovieTime @MovieTimeDev]

How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.

Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.