Big_Short

Michael Burry’s disclosed short/put positions over roughly the last two years have a strong directional win rate overall (around 82% on 11 publicly noted put options), driven especially by success in non-AI and Chinese stocks, while AI-related shorts have been mixed or weaker. Burry closed his Scion Asset Management fund (and stopped filing 13Fs) in late 2025. Since then he has disclosed personal trades primarily via his paid Substack Cassandra Unchained (with details often shared on X). Full position sizes, exact entry/exit timing, premiums paid on options, and net P&L are not comprehensively public, so the picture relies on his disclosures, 13F data while the fund was active, and subsequent stock moves. Short equity positions were never fully visible in 13Fs anyway (only long holdings and options in certain cases). Overall track record on disclosed shorts/puts (approx. last 2 years) •Analysis of 11 disclosed put options showed 9 hitting their directional targets (~82% win rate). •Non-AI and Chinese stocks: Essentially all successful (examples cited include Alibaba/BABA, https://t.co/lxy6C0cXVm, and PDD puts or related shorts). He had periods of both long and short exposure to Chinese tech (switching around depending on the filing period), and the bearish ones worked directionally. •AI-related: Much weaker (~33% hit rate in the same analysis). Two Nvidia shorts failed (stock rose notably during the holding periods, e.g., +46% in one Q1 2025 window and +4% in another). Palantir puts were closer to flat or modestly successful depending on exact timing. This is why critics focus on his high-profile AI and market-crash commentary—those are the visible, widely discussed positions—while quieter or less glamorous shorts (especially China-related) performed better. More recent (2025–2026) positions and performance Key disclosed shorts/puts and approximate outcomes based on public reports (prices and moves as of mid-2026 reporting; markets move continuously): •Palantir (PLTR) puts (large notional in final 13F, ~$912M reported value; later outright short commentary): Worked directionally for periods (stock declined meaningfully from late-2025 levels in some windows; YTD 2026 declines of ~10%+ noted in places, with larger drops from peaks). He has kept exposure. •Nvidia (NVDA) puts/shorts (multiple entries, including around $198 and later adds near $210): Mixed to poor. Stock often rose or held firm against him in earlier windows; later performance more mixed amid broader volatility. He has continued holding/rolling some puts. •Tesla (TSLA) short (around $416): Profitable on paper during July 2026 weakness (stock fell substantially, e.g., toward the $300s). He later covered after “decent gains.” •Caterpillar (CAT) short (around $1,061): Moved in his favor (declined toward the mid/high $800s in reporting). He later trimmed. •Applied Materials (AMAT) short (around $729): Declined meaningfully; he covered after gains. •Semiconductor ETFs (SOXX/SMH) and related (entries around $643 for SOXX): Declined in the July pullback window; later adjustments included selling some puts and rolling others. •Micron (MU) short (entries near $1,052 and later ~$924–$1,000): More recent; mixed depending on exact timing amid the stock’s prior strong run. •Oracle (ORCL) and Nebius (NBIS): Newer shorts (ORCL around $145; NBIS higher). ORCL had already been weak YTD in some reports; NBIS had been a strong performer, so the short was against a winner at the time of disclosure. He has added to some of these. In July 2026 market weakness, several of the industrial/AI-adjacent shorts (Tesla, CAT, AMAT, SOXX) moved profitably for him. He has described covering some for “quick sizable short-sale gains” while keeping or adding to others (e.g., more MU, keeping NVDA/PLTR puts, adding to ORCL/NBIS/SOXX exposure at times). He also rolls puts and manages risk actively rather than holding indefinitely.