Olivia
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The trading brew
@ttb_cmu
Joined September 2024
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29 Posts
BREAKING π¨: Japan
Japan's 2-Year Yield hits 1.64% for the first time since 1995 π€― π
As expected with good earnings
Mag 7 are getting back on their knees,software stocks will follow..
Chinese Yuan hits strongest level against the U.S. Dollar since February 2023 π π
SpaceX would be nice to invest in but not in anytime soon.. no profits as well as uncertainty about its core business and overhypeβ¦
JUST IN π¨: Elon Musk is reportedly considering shutting down Jim Cramer's X account after Cramer said investors should buy SpaceX $SPCX for their kids
Time to look for some Nike! Given itβs core that isnβt built around βaiβ
Nike $NKE is now underperforming the S&P 500 $SPY by the largest margin in 25 years π π
Mag 7 are getting back on their knees,software stocks will follow..
US stocks are cheap despite trading at all time highs.
The S&P 500's forward P/E premium relative to global equities is down to ~22%, the lowest since 2020.
This marks a significant decline from ~50% seen in Q2 2024.
This is also in-line with the levels seen in 2018-2019 and below the 10-year average of 31%.
This comes as US earnings are proving exceptionally strong, with S&P 500 profits currently tracking +28.7% YoY growth.
By comparison, European companies' earnings growth is tracking at +14.4% YoY, or HALF of US levels.
Many US stocks are getting cheaper as they go up.
When the market is going only in one direction everyone can pretend heβs the βoneβ but once the tables get turned we get to see things like this:
The best-performing fund of 2026 just got wiped out by its own leverage.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund just had one of the fastest blowups in hedge fund history. Up 439% this year on aggressive AI bets, it hit $45 billion in assets, then lost the entire public portfolio in weeks.
Here's what made him famous. He went long AI hardware like SK Hynix, the chipmaker, and shorted software stocks like Adobe. Chips up, software down. The trade of the year.
But he wasn't just using his own money. He borrowed roughly 4x his capital to size the bets up. Leverage is great when you're right. It turns brutal the moment you're wrong.
Mid-July, everything flipped at once. His chip stocks fell over 30% in two weeks. His Adobe short backfired, the stock rose instead of falling. He was losing on both sides of the book at the same time.
On July 24, he wrote to investors calling the crash a buying opportunity and asked for fresh capital. The money never came in time.
Then, on July 28, Bloomberg reported that Citadel Securities was calling for a surprise Fed rate hike, a move markets hadn't priced in. Panic hit. AI stocks, already down 30%, fell even harder.
July 30, Thursday morning. All three of his prime brokers, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, issued margin calls on the same morning. He had nothing left to negotiate with.
That same day, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ken Griffin's Citadel had bought his entire stock portfolio, reportedly at a steep discount.
Ken Griffin's market-making arm called the rate shock. Days later, Ken Griffin's hedge fund walked away with the assets once the fire sale arrived.
No one has proven intent. But the timing is hard to ignore.
@Barchart Literallyyyyyyy
@theseer1968 I mean they will run like that one dayyy
This is getting ridiculousβ¦
In the name of peace, wars are createdβ¦ and itβs only hurting the us gov even more.. this debt will never be paid..
BREAKING: The US national debt hit $39.5 TRILLION for the first time in history.
Debt grew by $286B in the last 30 days, climbing $110,000 per SECOND.
Itβs unbelievable that we live in a era where a president can dictate how he wants the stock market to be today!
BREAKING: US oil prices surge +9% after President Trump announces the US is reimposing its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with ships now required to pay a fee equal to 20% of their cargoβs value to transit the waterway.
BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. may pursue actions that could send oil prices higher
Nothing ever happens :
BREAKING: Oil is up +2% over the last 90 minutes and is trading above $70 as Iran's attacks on vessels continue.
JUST IN: πΊπΈ President Trump says the stock market is "gonna go through the roof."
Pump and dump here we goo!
#stocks
JUST IN: Michael Burry says "the end is near" for the stock market
Fiat currency effect
BREAKING: Global stock market cap is up to a record $166 trillion.
This marks a +$32 trillion YoY increase, or +23.6%, far above the long-term average.
Global markets have surged +$94 trillion, or +131%, since the 2020 pandemic low.
By comparison, the global equity market value has grown at a +7.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 20 years.
Meanwhile, as a % of global GDP, the global equity market cap is up to a record ~134%.
Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history.
Watch the market tomorrow . Bunch of drama queens.
$760,000,000,000 wiped out from the US stock market in the last 2 hours.
Stock market looks weak.
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