ttgss

[0Xmood @7mood10061]

这个量化交易员在比特币涨跌市场赚了129万美元

他用的策略，是从Jane Street的交易逻辑里反向工程出来的

之前我提过那个Jane Street量化，他们的代码每分钟能为基金赚7.5万美元。而这个人，把类似的核心逻辑搬到了Polymarket上，自己跑了起来。

他的钱包地址：
https://t.co/mlphrEW53t

很多人没看懂的关键在于：
他并不是在预测比特币下一根K线会涨还是跌。

他的系统会把比特币的价格走势，同时推演成成千上万个可能的情景，只有当数学计算显示这笔交易存在明显优势时，才会真正下单。

这和Jane Street在华尔街做的事本质一样：
找到一个微小的正期望值，然后通过极高的重复次数，把小优势累积成大利润。

区别只在于，他把这套逻辑用在了普通人也能参与的预测市场上。

目前这个优势窗口还存在，主要是个人钱包在做，传统量化基金还没大规模进来。一旦机构资金大量涌入，定价效率提升，这个edge就会快速缩小。

想自己复现这套逻辑，可以参考他之前分享的思路。
或者不想自己研究，直接镜像他的交易也可以。

[DANNY @Danny_Crypton]

🚨 MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 3 YEARS:

2026:

1. BTC drops to $52,000
2. S&P falls to 5,800
3. Oil stays above $110 for two quarters
4. First G7 country enters technical recession
5. Fed Chair transition triggers the most volatile quarter in a decade

2027:

1. Fed pivots - 3 cuts in 12 months
2. BTC bottoms in Q1, doubles by Q4
3. Dollar reserve currency debate hits mainstream media
4. Real estate crashes in at least 2 major US cities
5. People who accumulated in 2026 go completely silent on social media

2028:

1. BTC crosses $280,000
2. S&P pushes to 9,500
3. Fed balance sheet hits $12 trillion
4. AI boom starts showing up in actual GDP numbers
5. The people who bought in 2026 will be the new 2017 legends

Bookmark this

Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS

Come back in 2028

[ShortSeller @ShortSeller]

$SPY $SPX Current thesis... fugly into a March/April low 20ish%...forming a H&S getting everyone bearish then rip higher with two 5ish% drawdowns in back half of year...eoy calling for 18ish% year // See my pinned tweet

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$SPX Bears only and last hope is something comes out of this...

I'm just the messenger.

[Chandler Trades @ChandlerTrading]

$ES $SPX $SPY 1D - Aug03

Sellers finding that 1D reversal structure...

Now, they need a *corrective* retrace to form a lower high

The leg that follows will be actionable for me on the 1D

HTF target -> The April low.

[KAZ @ralphkaz]

$SPX Ping! Top of the fork - will be quite wild if it reverses exactly here... Lets see! $ES $SPY

[BraVoCycles Newsletter @BraVoCycles]

Long-term SPX Elliott Wave count (published originally in Market Twists & Turns Pro).
If you like it please feel free to retweet it, it is precious.

[Deep Thought @jamessalcedo]

@SmartReversals This is what I have: https://t.co/jQwsZMraDf

[Mo @optionflys]

$SPX Next update: 04 | 15 | 2025
Choppy session today. Let's see how tomorrow goes.

$SPY $QQQ

[Grega Horvat @GregaHorvatFX]

Tracking two counts for SP500 at this stage. #SPX $ES_F

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

A reversion to the mean is inevitable.

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

The lack of confirmation for new record highs for the S&P 500 is still a major divergence that should not be ignored. Historically, this has preceded corrective volatility in markets seen in 2007, 2018, 2020, and 2022.

[Chandler Trades @ChandlerTrading]

$ES $SPX $SPY 12H - Sep07

A sharp move lower to end the week... While I'd love to say the B-wave is in, this downside is still corrective. Not impulsive as C-should be

Therefore, I still suspect one more poke higher to complete B...Below 5300, I'll consider a more direct route

[philip li @philipli702]

舞蹈？武术？！其实，目的都是锻炼人的身体素质吧… #中国功夫

[Bitcoin.不求人 @btcbqr]

止损错了，也是对的

这句话有一定的道理。从以下几个角度来理解：

一、风险管理角度

在交易或投资中，设置止损是一种重要的风险管理手段。即使止损后市场走势发生反转，看似这次止损错了，但它有效地控制了潜在的更大损失。如果不设置止损，一旦市场出现极端不利的情况，可能会导致巨额亏损，甚至可能使你失去继续参与市场的能力。从长远来看，坚持止损原则有助于在不确定的市场环境中保护你的资金，维持交易的可持续性。

二、心理层面

当你严格执行止损时，即使结果看起来“错了”，但它能给予你一种纪律感和心理上的稳定。你会知道自己在交易中有明确的规则可遵循，不会被情绪左右而陷入无法自拔的困境。这种心理上的确定性有助于你在长期的交易过程中保持冷静和理性，避免因一次错误的决策而陷入情绪化的交易陷阱。

三、交易策略角度

交易是一个概率游戏，没有一种策略能保证百分百正确。止损只是交易策略的一部分，它不能单独决定一次交易的成败。即使某次止损在事后看来是不必要的，但从整体交易策略的执行来看，它有助于维持策略的一致性和稳定性。只要你的交易策略在长期中是有效的，那么个别止损的“错误”并不会影响整体的盈利结果。

总之，“止损错了，也是对的”强调的是止损在风险管理、心理层面和交易策略执行中的重要性，它提醒我们在交易中要坚持原则，不要因为个别结果的不如意而轻易放弃止损这一重要的风险控制手段。#BTC

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

S&P500

Update

🚨 CAUTION 🚨

Witness the stark contrast: 2008 and 2024, side by side, unfiltered.
Brace yourselves.

The market's next temper tantrum shall be upon us shortly.

2008 was just the appetizer. The main course is coming in 2025.

P.S Dessert yet to be decided.

Don't be alarmed it gets much worse.

[kpak @kpak82]

$SPY Diamond top breakdown

[kpak @kpak82]

$SPY potential diamond top

[John @market_sleuth]

Market is still in a strong uptrend. Not a place I'd be loading up on $SPY puts. Scalping only! Until this rising wedge breaks it's going higher. Guessing leads to losses. Once we get a reversal there's plenty of time to ride the corrective move wave down.🔽

[Grega Horvat @GregaHorvatFX]

With SP500 breaking the trendline, I think risk-on is back. More upside after wave 4 then. Will keep a close eye on it.

Join me in webinar later https://t.co/hP94Ka8Hqy

#Elliottwave #SPX #DXY