BOJ is about to release a financial Pearl Harbor on the US.
Japan’s government bond yields are rising sharply after decades of near-zero interest rates.
For years, investors used the Japanese yen as a cheap funding currency (“yen carry trade”): borrow in yen at very low rates, then invest in higher-yielding assets worldwide (U.S. bonds, stocks, crypto, real estate, etc.).
As Japanese yields rise, investing at home becomes more attractive and borrowing in yen becomes more expensive.
This can trigger an unwinding of the carry trade, meaning investors sell foreign assets and repatriate capital to Japan.
Because Japan is one of the world’s largest holders of foreign assets including large amounts of U.S. Treasuries - continued selling could put upward pressure on global bond yields and reduce market liquidity.
Bond markets often react before equity markets.
Pope never healed sick people on their death bed, while Jesus did. So stop coping, Trump is a satanist trash, a wannabe Antichrist. Fuck Trump and all his MAGA worshippers!
I am a Web3 Ambassador at World Liberty Financial.
There are 12 of us on the team page. 4 are named Trump. 3 are named Witkoff. The page calls us "the passionate minds shaping the future of finance."
600,000 wallets bought our memecoin. They lost $3.87 billion. The family collected $350 million in trading fees. It launched 3 days before the inauguration. 80% of the supply went to CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC. I did not choose the names. I designed the allocation, the vesting, the timing, and the distance between the product and the President.
The distance is my best work.
I am the reason these events are unrelated.
World Liberty Financial sends 75 cents of every dollar to DT Marks DEFI LLC. That is the family entity. Zero capital contributed. Zero liability assumed. I wrote this into the Gold Paper. Page 14. The lawyers bound it in white leather. The binding cost more than the due diligence.
Justin Sun invested $75 million. He was facing SEC fraud charges. The SEC dropped the case. He is now our advisor. These events are unrelated.
Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to federal money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon. The SEC dropped its lawsuit against his exchange the same week we listed our stablecoin. Then the exchange settled a $2 billion deal entirely in that stablecoin. These events are unrelated.
Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed of BitMEX pleaded guilty to Bank Secrecy Act violations. All 3 received presidential pardons. Then the company itself was pardoned. $100 million in fines. Gone. An American first. These events are unrelated.
Sheikh Tahnoun of Abu Dhabi paid $500 million for a 49% stake that was never publicly disclosed. Then the administration approved semiconductor exports to his companies over national security objections. These events are unrelated.
Everything is unrelated. I track the unrelatedness on a dashboard I built. The dashboard has 7 columns now. I am proud of the dashboard.
On May 22nd, 220 people paid a combined $148 million to eat dinner with the America First president. Over half were foreign nationals. Justin Sun paid $18.5 million for the first seat. He visited the Executive Office Building the day before. I designed the seating chart. I put it on the Investor Confidence page. That page is doing well.
The team page lists 3 Witkoffs. All 3 are Co-Founders.
Steven Witkoff is the President's Middle East envoy. He testified as a character witness at the President's fraud trial.
His son Zach runs the crypto operation. His son Alex is also a Co-Founder. I have not been told what Alex co-founded.
The father runs the diplomacy. The sons run the platform. The family runs both. That is organizational efficiency.
Barron is 19. His title is Web3 Ambassador. The same as mine. Donald Jr. called the conflicts of interest "complete nonsense." Eric launched a Bitcoin mining company called American Bitcoin. America First. The mining partner is Hut 8. Hut 8 was founded in Canada. America First means the name.
On March 6th, the President signed Executive Order 14233 creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The order directs the government to hold Bitcoin. The President's family holds billions in Bitcoin. The executive order appreciates the President's assets by presidential decree. I did not write the executive order. I made sure it looked unrelated to the portfolio.
Trump Media put $2 billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The ticker symbol is DJT. His initials. The press secretary said it is absurd to insinuate the President profits off the presidency. Forbes calculated his crypto holdings exceed the combined value of Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower. I would call that absurd too. That is my job.
600,000 wallets bought in. 1 of them asked why she could not withdraw her funds. I told her the protocol was experiencing dynamic market conditions. She asked what that meant. I sent her the Gold Paper. She said she had read the Gold Paper. I muted her channel. Dynamic means the conditions change. The condition that changed was her access.
A congressman called us the world's most corrupt crypto startup operation. We put it on a coffee mug. Ironic merchandise. $45. The revenue split on the mug is also 75/25.
My own tokens vest on a different schedule. I wrote that schedule. That is not in the Gold Paper.
The memecoin funds the family. The family funds the platform. The platform funds the stablecoin. The stablecoin funds the deals. The deals require the pardons. The pardons free the partners. The partners fund the platform. The President signs the executive orders. The executive orders inflate the assets. The assets fund the family.
I am the reason these events are unrelated.
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🚨 BREAKING: Someone just open-sourced a full offline computer that keeps working when the entire internet goes down.
It's called Project N.O.M.A.D.
Bookmark it for later.
A self-contained offline server with AI, Wikipedia, maps, medical references, and full education courses. All running on your own hardware. No internet. No cloud. No subscription. No telemetry.
Companies sell "prepper drives" with static PDFs for hundreds of dollars. This gives you a full AI brain, an entire encyclopedia, and real interactive courses. Free. Forever.
What's packed inside:
→ A fully offline AI assistant powered by Ollama with GPU acceleration (NVIDIA auto-detected)
→ All of Wikipedia, downloadable and searchable without a connection
→ Offline maps of any region you choose via OpenStreetMap data
→ Medical references and survival guides
→ Full Khan Academy courses with progress tracking
→ Document upload with semantic search (local RAG)
→ Project Gutenberg library (60,000+ free books)
→ Everything accessible through your browser from any device on your local network
Here's the part that hits different:
A solar panel. A battery. A mini PC. A WiFi access point. That's your entire off-grid knowledge station. Runs on 15 to 65 watts. Works from a cabin, an RV, a sailboat, or a bunker.
Internet goes down? You still have AI. You still have maps. You still have medical info. You still have an entire encyclopedia. You still have courses for your kids.
100% Open Source. Apache 2.0 License.
(Link in the comments)
I'm getting way too old for this trading stuff man. I used to enjoy moments like this - but nowadays it feels like anything can happen anytime. And by the time you adjust, the narrative is flipped upside down again.
Home Sales Just Hit Their Lowest Level Since The 2008 Financial Crisis.
Not a seasonal dip. Not a mild slowdown. The WORST home sales environment in nearly two decades.
So what's actually going on?
Three things are strangling this market at the same time.
Mortgage rates spent most of 2024 above 6.5% and experts expect them to stay above 6% through 2026. That's not a blip. That's the new normal.
Inventory is sitting at roughly 1.15 million homes. The historical average is 2.25 million. We're running at HALF of a normal market.
And millions of homeowners locked in rates below 4% a few years ago. They have zero incentive to sell and trade into a 7% mortgage. So they're staying put, inventory stays low, prices stay high, and buyers stay on the sidelines.
A doom loop nobody can seem to break out of.
Here's what makes this so strange though.
In 2008, the market collapsed because of reckless lending, toxic mortgages, and a full blown financial crisis. Banks were failing. Jobs were disappearing. The whole system was unraveling.
None of that is happening right now.
The market isn't broken because of bad loans. It's frozen because regular people simply can't afford to buy. And people who already own can't afford to move.
Same outcome. Completely different reason.
It took six weeks for "the markets" to realize there was a global pandemic despite non-stop reports. It took six weeks for "the markets" to buy Nvidia stock despite the grandiose and public demonstration of talking computers. It'll take six weeks to realize the strait is shut.
IRAN, ISRAEL & US WAR - If The Markets Are Uncertain, Why Is Gold & Silver Going Down?
That's because the war is actually helping the U.S. dollar, and that’s one of the key reasons gold and silver have been struggling.
Here's what I mean...
1. Global Fear = Money Runs Into Dollars
When geopolitical shocks hit, investors look for liquidity and safety.
The assets that usually get that money first are:
- U.S. dollars
- U.S. Treasury bonds
- Sometimes gold
Because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid market on earth, capital floods into it during crises.
Right now that is exactly what is happening.
The U.S. Dollar Index has been rising as the Iran conflict escalates, reflecting strong safe-haven demand.
2. Europe and Asia Are More Vulnerable to an Oil Shock
The conflict threatens the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of global oil moves.
Countries that depend heavily on imported oil — especially:
- Europe
- Japan
- South Korea
- India
are economically more exposed than the U.S.
So investors think:
“If energy explodes higher, those economies suffer more.”That causes money to leave their currencies and move into dollars.
3. Oil Shock = Higher U.S. Interest Rates
If oil spikes, inflation rises.
Markets are already starting to assume:
- The Fed may delay rate cuts
- Interest rates could stay higher longer
Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive globally.
4. Why This Hurts Gold in the Short Term
Gold struggles when:
- The dollar strengthens
- Real yields rise
So you get this paradox:
War → Fear→ Stronger Dollar
Stronger dollar = Pressure on gold
That’s why metals sometimes dip at the beginning of geopolitical shocks.
5. But This Can Flip Later
Historically the sequence often looks like this:
Stage 1 – Shock
Dollar spikes
Gold flat or down
Stage 2 – Inflation shows up
Oil drives CPI higher
Real rates fall
Stage 3 – Gold explodes
This happened during:
the 1970s oil shocks
the 2008 crisis
the 2020 stimulus era
If a lot of you having been asking why is Gold & Silver going down when the market is unstable - this is why.
And no this doesn't mean the dollar is getting stronger long term.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East are creating volatility in global markets, particularly across Asia. Countries such as Korea, Japan, and India remain heavily dependent on Gulf oil imports and face the greatest economic exposure.
China appears better positioned thanks to strategic oil stockpiles and diversified supply routes. Russia benefits from higher oil prices, although if crude rises above $90–$100, global economic growth could slow significantly. In that scenario, central banks may prioritize financial stability over strict inflation control.
Global Oil Supply Disruptions
About 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy system. Roughly 90% of Persian Gulf oil exports go to Asia, meaning the region would absorb most of the shock from a prolonged disruption.
Asian marets showed volatility. Korea’s stock market recently dropped about 12% overnight and roughly 15% for the week, though it remains near levels seen before its recent rally. US markets have been more resilient so far.
China’s Position
China may be less vulnerable than many assume. Over the past decade it has built large strategic petroleum reserves, diversified imports through Russia and Central Asian pipelines, and accelerated electric vehicle adoption partly for energy security.
China’s leadership also prioritizes economic stability, making major escalatory moves against the United States unlikely despite broader geopolitical tensions.
Vulnerability of Asian Economies
Several US-aligned economies remain highly exposed to Gulf oil flows. Japan, Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and India all depend heavily on energy imports shipped through Hormuz. If the disruption lasts, these countries would likely compete for alternative supplies, pushing oil prices and shipping costs higher. For now, markets assume the crisis will remain temporary.
Russia’s Advantage
Russia stands to benefit from higher oil prices. Any disruption in Middle Eastern supply increases the importance of Russian exports.
Western governments would struggle to restrict Russian energy if Gulf supply were also constrained, since limiting both sources would risk severe shortages.
Oil Price Risks
Despite geopolitical tensions, oil prices remain relatively moderate, with WTI near $73 per barrel.
If prices rise toward $90–$100, the impact on the global economy could be substantial:
- higher energy costs reducing consumer spending
- stronger inflation pressures in emerging markets
- slower growth in energy-intensive economies
Countries such as India and Southeast Asia would be particularly affected.
Central Bank Response
If energy prices rise while growth slows, central banks may shift their focus from inflation control to financial stability and employment, potentially cutting interest rates even in an inflationary environment.
Market Expectations
Markets currently price in a short-term disruption followed by diplomatic resolution. However, a longer period of instability remains possible, which could keep commodity markets volatile.
Investment Implications
Traditional portfolios may struggle in this environment. The classic 60% equities / 40% bonds allocation has already proven less effective as bonds failed to protect against inflation.
Bonds have underperformed inflation in recent years, suggesting a possible structural bear market in fixed income.
Gold increasingly acts as protection against monetary policy mistakes and currency instability, with central banks and Asian investors increasing purchases.
US equities remain expensive and heavily owned, while Chinese equities offer lower valuations and lighter investor positioning.
A disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz represents a major geopolitical and economic risk. While markets currently assume a temporary crisis, a prolonged disruption could push energy prices higher and slow global growth.
US Stocks: What's Actually Happening and Where the Real Opportunities Are?
The Worst Start in Three Decades — But Don't Misread It
US equities have had their weakest opening relative to global markets since 1995. That's a striking data point, and predictably, it's fueling a wave of "sell America" narratives. I'd push back on that framing — not because the underperformance isn't real, but because the *cause* is being misdiagnosed.
Foreign capital flows into US long-term assets — equities, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds — remain at or near record highs. Foreign investors aren't leaving. They're *hedging*. That's a meaningful distinction. Hedging implies continued exposure with downside protection layered on top. It's a defensive posture, not an exit. The narrative of a coordinated foreign retreat from US assets simply isn't supported by the flow data.
The underperformance is largely sector-specific. Technology stocks — which have carried disproportionate weight in US indices for years — are facing valuation compression and earnings scrutiny. When the heaviest component of an index drags, the index drags. That's not a macro indictment of America; it's a concentration risk playing out in real time.
Where the Genuine Opportunities Are?
Latin America: Commodity Tailwinds Are Real
Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina are positioned to benefit from the current commodity cycle — particularly precious metals and energy. Latin America's terms of trade are structurally favorable right now: the region exports what the world increasingly needs and imports less of what's becoming expensive. Political noise in the region is real and shouldn't be dismissed, but commodity-driven economies can absorb political turbulence better than markets give them credit for, provided the underlying export demand holds.
Asia: Selective, Not Broad
Indonesia and South Korea stand out. The institutional quality gap between emerging Asian markets and G10 economies has been narrowing — partly because emerging markets have been quietly improving governance and monetary frameworks, and partly because some developed-market central banks have been eroding their own credibility through inconsistent policy. That convergence matters for risk-adjusted returns.
Safe Havens: The Usual Suspects, for Good Reason
Gold, silver, platinum, Swiss franc, Swedish krona — these perform in environments of institutional uncertainty, and we are unambiguously in one. The surge in gold prices, however, deserves a more nuanced read than most commentary provides.
Gold: Retail Enthusiasm, Not a Central Bank Conspiracy
The dominant driver of gold's recent price appreciation is retail investor demand for safe-haven assets — not a coordinated central bank pivot away from the dollar. Emerging market central banks *are* buying gold, but steadily and methodically, not aggressively chasing the rally. The distinction matters: retail-driven price surges are more volatile and more susceptible to sharp reversals than structurally driven institutional accumulation.
Yes, as the US dollar weakens, reserve diversification into gold makes sense and will likely continue. But there is no evidence of a large-scale, active reallocation by central banks. Anyone positioning on that thesis is getting ahead of the data.
US Treasuries: The "Nuclear Option" Nobody Will Actually Use
The concern that China or Japan might dump US Treasuries as geopolitical leverage — particularly in the context of incidents like the Greenland episode — is theoretically coherent but practically self-defeating. Any large-scale sell-off would front-run itself: the moment markets anticipated it, prices would crater, inflicting massive capital losses on the seller before they could exit. It's the financial equivalent of a mutually assured destruction scenario.
Investors are not influenced by MAGA propaganda anymore. Smart money are fleeing US and entering EU. You should all ask why. Don't be an ape, be smart.
If you didn't make it investing in crypto in 16 years you're not going to make it now as it gets exponentially harder as an adopted asset class.
Most people were in a combination of too risk averse to be an early adopter and too lazy to put the work and effort in to understand crypto when the barrier to entry WAS high.
Now it's the opposite, you have a billion ways to buy Bitcoin, almost everyone who wants to, can.
For alts the barrier to entry discussion is around ability to launch.
Previously you needed a smart dev to do it, now you just stick a picture on one of the 1,000 launchpads that exist and click go.
Most people have given up on crypto because they rationally know it's-EV for them now.
It's turned from an investors playground to a traders market.
If you're looking to invest in anything other than bitcoin you have to avoid the 1,000 rugs that launch a day, the exit scams, the memes that have a lifespan of a week (see penguin as a recent example) and content with people who are selling everything on a 20% pump.
The idea was we would sell Bitcoin to the bankers and that's what happened. The generational trade is complete.
Does that mean it's over? Maybe.
I certainly think it is for anything other than:
- investing in Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance goes parabolic over time imo. Or it goes to 0. Personally betting on the former, but I'd put the latter at 20% odds in 10 years.
- buying low caps with an edge. Strong FA people are still crushing the trenches, e.g. agents on base.
- trading altcoin rotations (ahhh my spaghetti). We will inevitably get some risk on rotations on alts, see privacy narrative.
- building truly innovative projects. There are 1-2 areas that have not been done well and could be. The upside to low barrier to entry is building and delivering this is much easier.
There is only so many times the masses can be mass extracted from before they wise up...
Short term however, I still think more down and more bearish propaganda/ rage bait / general bad vibes on CT, as frankly that's what works.
The trader era of CT is mostly over as everyone pushing trader content for 10 likes vs. shitposting a meme for 1m impressions really shows how our counter-parties brains are wired... tiktok brains with a 3 second attention span who expect to get rich in minutes. I must admit, I get a schadenfraude glee from taking their money in the orderbooks... but we have to adapt to the times.
The place we knew as CT is dead.
The OGs are either retired, washed, or liquidated.
The new generation seems to be serial pumpfun ruggers and the tiktok generation love it.
The only way this reverts is a big cleanse.... and it's coming imo.
Soon we will be back to consensus being it's over and it'll "never pump again"....
Good luck have fun.
On November 4, 1991, Robert Maxwell, the father of Ghislaine Maxwell, mysteriously disappeared from his yacht and was never found. The circumstances surrounding Maxwell's death are not fully known and leave room for different versions. Maxwell's real name was Jan Ludwig Hoch. He was born in Czechoslovakia in 1923. Today, this territory is part of Ukraine. Maxwell, who was Jewish, became a well-known businessman and publisher. However, in 1948, he was involved in supplying weapons through Czechoslovakia to Israel, fighting a war with the Arab states. This made him a well-known businessman. In reality, Maxwell was already working for Soviet intelligence at that time. The USSR supported Israel during that period to harm Great Britain, which had become an enemy of the USSR after Churchill's Fulton speech on March 5, 1946. Many legends were created about Maxwell working for both British and Israeli intelligence. But in reality, he was a Soviet intelligence agent. His cooperation with other intelligence agencies took place within the framework of his work for the NKVD-KGB. In December 1961, Maxwell's daughter Ghislaine was born. She worked for her father and on her father's behalf her entire life. She never worked for anyone else; her whole life was connected with her father's activities. Immediately after his death at the end of 1991, Ghislaine moved to New York and met Epstein. Ghislaine was 30 years old at the time. Is there any chance that the daughter of Soviet spy Maxwell met Epstein by chance in 1991? Obviously not. There is no chance that this meeting was accidental. Moreover, having worked for her father her entire life, Ghislaine certainly knew that her father Robert worked for Soviet intelligence, because this was known. Just as Armand Hammer, the son of one of the founders of the Communist Party of the United States, Julius Hammer, to whom the first Soviet concessions were given by Lenin's government, was an agent of the USSR and with Kremlin’s help became a successful businessman and millionaire in America and transferred his wealth to his son Armand who continued to serve the USSR as agent of influence. This was known as well and never prevented a successful business from extending. Can we assume that Ghislaine Maxwell was also recruited by the KGB? Yes, we can. I would say that it is impossible to assume that she was not recruited. Can we assume that Ghislaine's idea to move to New York and meet Epstein was also agreed with the KGB and organized by the KGB? Yes, that can also be assumed. Indeed, it is impossible to imagine that the KGB would leave alone the daughter of Soviet intelligence agent Robert Maxwell, who worked for the USSR for over 40 years. So, the daughter of Soviet spy Robert Maxwell, recruited by the KGB, moves to New York in 1991 and meets Epstein. From that moment on, all of Ghislaine & Epstein's activities were supervised by the KGB/FSB. Why is Ghislaine being set up with Epstein, with whom she falls in love sincerely, or by a KGB plan? And why does Epstein draw FSB’s attention to himself?
Trump’s life helps us answer this question. Jeffrey Epstein had been friends with Trump since the 1980s, that is, well before 1991. To clarify: Trump was born in 1946. Epstein was born in 1953. So Trump was the older friend. Their friendship continued until 2004. As a journalist, Michael Wolf recounted on July 23, 2025, in his interview, having had the opportunity to record 100 (one hundred) hours of interviews with Epstein between 2014 and 2019, Trump and Epstein were so close from the late 1980s to 2004 that they shared girls, and competed to see who would sleep with a girl first. Epstein also introduced Trump to Melania. Has this included sex with underage girls? Perhaps, it had. As Wolf said, they never asked for IDs, indicating the girls' ages. Trump and Epstein were involved in modeling agencies and beauty contests at the time as well.