UmaAmi

[SilverTimes (STT) | Silver onchain, 1:1 backed @SilvertimesSTT]

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[CertiK @CertiK]

Introducing our latest CertiK Intel3D report: The Rise of the AI Security Workforce.

Explore how agentic AI is reshaping cybersecurity, AML, and compliance across Web2 and Web3, and the governance, security, and accountability challenges emerging alongside it. ↓

[周先知 @xianzhizhou]

Anthropic CEO 达里奥没白去百度。

这套操作，百度十年前就玩过了。达里奥进化了。

但百度当年养莆田系做竞价排名，好歹明码标价。达里奥连价格都不让你看见。

美国调查博主Kevin Bass深扒了AI公司Anthropic的资金链。扒出一条完美闭环。

Facebook联合创始人Moskovitz早期投资Anthropic。Claude全球爆火，手里的股票从几亿涨到几十亿美元。然后宣布全部捐给自己的基金会。

自己的基金会。

基金会拿这笔钱干了两件事。

第一，资助一批号称独立的第三方评估机构，比如METR，专门给Claude最新模型做安全评测，出风险报告。

第二，养一批写AI末日论的内容团队，给主流媒体供稿，制造恐慌，呼���监管。

钱是Anthropic股票变现的。评估对象是Anthropic的模型。结论永远是：需要更多评估。

Kevin Bass翻了National Philanthropic Trust的990税表。2023到2025财年，22258笔拨款流向METR关联网络。Founders Pledge拿了7880万美元。RAND拿了6160万。FAR AI拿了1440万。

这些机构的核心产出：告诉全世界AI很危险。

链条串起来。

恐慌越大，监管越严。监管越严，门槛越高。门槛越高，开源和小公司越难活。竞争对手越少，Anthropic护城河越深。估值越高，基金会越有钱。基金会越有钱，恐慌推文越多。

完美闭环。

此前有人扒过，Anthropic团队自导自演的AI恐慌推文拿了1.6亿阅读量。写文章的人，就是Anthropic自己出资培养的员工。目的只有一个：推动AI立法，让自己参与规则制定，把护城河写进法律。

写恐慌的人拿Anthropic的工资。做评估的人拿Anthropic股东的钱。呼吁监管的人拿Anthropic基金会的拨款。

三条线，一个钱包。

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@Fartcat_Stonk https://t.co/JQZop6c4o8

[Jupiter @JupiterExchange]

@rajgokal @MyroSOL We going to route everything through fartcoin now just so u know.

Apparently thats the future of finance and idk we trust u guys.

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@Stonk_Screener done?

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@WendlerTill @laBananeCrypto @peaq @solana did you trade a stonk paired with peaq?

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@MengLayer @ArclingsNFT 0xDa41eBFbE2d7E55Da79b93FF8Ff1D12074026411 萌总抽我！！

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@wirebotRH buy $10 $HMM

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@Miiiho420 怎么报名

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

来自Claude的解读

[LayerZero @LayerZero_Core]

https://t.co/3vIHs3Xgs4

[LayerZero @LayerZero_Core]

https://t.co/3vIHs3Xgs4

[Tydro @tydrohq]

Overview of the last 30 hours and the current situation:

The team was notified of the rsETH exploit immediately by our internal systems and @HypernativeLabs monitoring.

No fraudulent assets or transactions from the attackers occurred on Ink, and no suspicious borrow activity was observed in the Tydro markets before they were paused.

This is because the Ink and Kraken security teams promptly blacklisted the attackers addresses from transacting on Ink and Kraken through @FortaNetwork and froze the rsETH asset on Tydro with the help of our technical and risk service providers.

The Tydro infrastructure remains secure. The vulnerability was in rsETH’s LayerZero bridge.

As a result of the exploit and broader market uncertainty, several larger depositors pulled out of stablecoin markets, which has led to a temporary spike in utilization and interest rates as they evaluate market conditions.

These markets remain fully collateralized despite the higher utilization. Stablecoin and BTC collateral remains unaffected.

Any exposure is concentrated amongst rsETH and wETH. As of writing, there is $21M of rsETH collateral borrowing $19.36M of wETH concentrated between two highly leveraged wallets. These markets are now frozen.

Tydro is working with the Ink Foundation and other stakeholders in the broader ecosystem to provide a resolution for its users, and will be sharing a further action plan to remediate losses through official channels as the situation progresses.

A large part of the recovery value depends on the decisions made surrounding the NAV of rsETH on L2s vs L1. While we await further information on the situation report and recovery plan, we want to be perfectly clear:

Tydro is of the opinion that the only defensible framework is an equitable socialization across all rsETH holders regardless of chain.

Tydro is actively monitoring the situation and considering all available avenues, including legal, to protect users on Ink.

We expect other impacted L2 communities to seek the same equitable treatment for their users.

We appreciate your patience as we navigate this difficult time, please stay tuned for further updates through official channels.

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@tydrohq @HypernativeLabs It's great to hear from you. What users really want is transparency and certainty. Could you please let us know the approximate amount of loss Tydro users would bear under each of the two options, so that we can mentally prepare ourselves?

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@baozong_facai @grok 整理汇总发给我

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

Check out my score on the @FlyingTulip_ accredited investor quiz. I am now ready to register for the whitelist. Are you? Use this link to take the quiz and secure your spot.
https://t.co/ZZlRVd9MaO

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

写得真棒

[KCHorseracing ve(3,3) 🐺🐴 🚲🛫 @KCHorseracing]

今天來說說最近相當火熱的預測市場。

預測市場這一塊餅確實開中了我的優勢和��項，因為你其實可以把預測市場理解成博彩，看我的ID也知道了這是我的愛好，也正好可以把我在學士和碩士學到的知識套用。

龍一二 @Polymarket @Kalshi 現在日交易量相當驚人，base的兒子 @trylimitless 先前在 @KaitoAI 200倍超額認購後，昨日日交易量也在創新高，大哥的巨額融資和估值把整個市場的天花板都拉高了，每人口中都在說預測市場，但你真的知道預測市場是什麼嗎？

暫時在幾個預測市場上面可以看到的，主要玩法都在二元期權(Binary Option)，即只有「是」或「不是」，沒有其他可能性和選項。簡單來說，你可把每一次下注視為一個伯努利分佈(Bernoulli Distribution)，假設預測命題為在今天凌晨的一刻，BTC報價高於$115,000，設「是」的機率為p，那「不是」的機率則為q，即1-p，那你買每一張「是」的預期收益則是p*1減去手續費，換言之，只要每張「是」的期權現價在P減手續費之下，這便是一單值得去買的交易，你按預期值會贏取金錢。當然這裏忽略預期效用(Expected Utility)或其他Risk appetite的調整。

那麼問題來了，每一次下注的金額應��是多少呢？那個所謂預測的P是怎樣計算出來呢？搞懂這兩個問題，我們就能戰勝預測試場了。我們先來探討每一次下注的金額。

下注金額我們可以使用凱利公式(Kelly Criterion)來計算，這是每一個理性賭徒都必須要遵守的法則，它是能計算出一個最佳的數值，即你的資金的一個百分比作為你的下注金額，長遠而言會令你的資產最大化。比例f* = [p(b+1)-1]/b ，p是上面所說的「是」的概率，b即投注的賠率（不含本金，即歐式賠率-1），舉例說你認為「是」的機率為70%，但現在的價格是0.5，你應該下注的比例則為[0.7(1+1)-1]/1=0.4=40%

至於p怎樣計算出來，就相對比較複雜了。大家都知道常見的期權都是可以定價的，定價模型一般為布萊克休斯模型(Black Scholes Model)，認購期權C'=Se^(-qt)N(d1) - K^(e-rt)N(d2), 詳細就不說了，這裏不適用。二元期權的定價比這簡單，BSM假設了股價呈對數正態分佈，我們只需要找到IV代入就好了。
例如BTC現價係110000，volatility(using deribit DVOL)係47.6，假設使用GBM及假設Risk Neutral，我哋想計算聽日BTC高過113000的「是」的機率，可以這樣算：
日化sd=0.476/(365)^0.5≈0.0249
a≈ln(113000/110000)≈0.0269
μ≈−½×0.476^2×(1/365)≈−0.00031037
Z=(a-μ/sd)≈1.0928
p=P(St>K)=1-Φ(1.0928)≈13.75%

當然以上都是理論而已，預測市場或賭博的其中一個最引人入勝的地方，就是與自己的判斷來下注，有些時候，subjective probability會比這些理論更有效和更準確，所以各位大神們準���好稱霸預測市場沒有？
附上小弟一條 @trylimitless 的推薦碼：
https://t.co/jozRDFqQGG
祝各位旗開得勝，買什麼贏什麼！

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@RaccoonHKG lighter没有fee，团队没有钱，怎么护盘呢

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@Arron_finance @higher_bot @bsx_labs 抽我龙哥

[Arron🐱 @Arron_finance]

很高兴成为 @higher_bot 的大使，higherbot是一个专门为base服务的交易终端，是前几天热炒的 @bsx_labs 旗下的项目，有Coinbase的官方支持。目前支持所有base主流的发射台监控，在base上兼容的远比gmgn要好，看地址和new pairs十分方便。后续bot还会有积分计划，不排除有发新代币的可能。

Bot Univ4兼容的也很好，同时也有大家常用的tg bot交易，返利也比其他的bot要更高，最高可达50%的fee返利（如果这笔交易是亏损的话），是我体验过base上最好用的交易bot，可以说是在base上的aixom，欢迎喜欢玩Base生态的人来体验一下！

https://t.co/VqelzemRwk

这边我也会在推特以及社群组织个小抽奖活动，大家踊跃参加！

推特抽奖规则如下
1.关注 @Arron_finance 和 @higher_bot
2.一键三连本条推特
3.加入我的频道 https://t.co/Ce7D9lCXWG
4. 注册 https://t.co/VqelzemRwk
5.截图评论你注册higher bot后的截图

我会在这几天抽出5位中奖的朋友，一位50u，一共250u，欢迎大家参与！

[UmaAmi @uma001135]

@realyanxin go