UNCAPPED

Conversations with people I admire about things I’m genuinely interested in - @jaltma |

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

"I am very uncomfortable, I am not enjoying this moment at all...we're getting back to this point where prices are untethered from reality and it reminds me a lot of 2021."

Trae and FF have been among the best hard tech investors in the business, so it was interesting to hear him say that hard tech may be in an even more exuberant moment than AI.

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

We had a very sobering conversation around chip fabrication vis a vis China and Taiwan.

Trae talked about how America does great work around chip design, which is the (relatively) easier part of the problem, but how the fabrication lives elsewhere and why that's a problem.

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

New episode of Uncapped with @traestephens and @zebulgar from Founders Fund, and my partner @EverettRandle.

We talked about Founders Fund, the role of VCs, operating versus investing, their current views on the market, and dynamics in the AI supply chain and China.

The conversation stayed almost entirely on the rails and as always I learned a bunch from the way they think.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:54) What makes FF unique
(8:01) Why lacking EQ can be an asset
(12:10) Delian on working with Keith
(18:30) Why Trae hates board meetings
(24:13) Benchmark vs. Founders Fund
(26:31) Investing as the exhaust of operating
(28:52) Venture as a micro asset class
(30:42) The infamous 2021 offsite
(34:21) Current market sentiment
(39:18) Can you beat the S&P?
(48:53) America's semiconductor blind spot
(51:56) Taiwan and the 90% probability
(57:58) Robotics, humanoids, and the China question

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

My conversation with Mike Volpi @mavolpi, who is one of the strongest early stage investors of the last decade backing companies like Scale, ClickHouse, Confluent, Wealthfront, and many others.

When I started investing a couple years ago, Mike was one of the first people I reached out to for advice. Since then he's started his own new firm, Hanabi.

We talked about creating a new VC firm, how AI impacts venture capital, and a bunch of his ideas around specific trends in AI and elsewhere. I love this conversation, hope you enjoy.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:39) Building a venture firm from scratch
(4:02) Designing Hanabi
(5:52) Why stage matters less
(9:38) Building a venture brand
(13:58) The role of board seats
(17:06) Attributes of enduring firms
(20:44) The future of AI labs
(23:14) Open-source and neolabs
(32:49) The compute race
(36:51) The future of software
(45:49) Investing in defense
(47:50) From operator to investor
(50:35) Thriving founders today

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

Uncapped with @JTLonsdale, one of the most prolific builders and investors in tech.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:32) Why Joe keeps building
(3:53) Consensus and right
(5:39) What Palantir got right
(6:53) Pulling forward innovation
(9:32) AI vs social media
(12:23) Making AI work for America
(18:03) Department of War
(21:16) Betting on defense
(26:51) Robotics, bio, and energy
(32:16) Investing in the AI era
(35:38) Peptides opportunity
(38:35) Texas vs California
(40:12) Political correctness

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

"I think in a way, people are somewhat overestimating the founders of companies, and massively underestimating what you can do when the founder is still present and in charge."

Tobi talked about how it's not that founders themselves are some kind of super heroes, but that the *role* of a founder is incredibly important because of what the natural moral authority allows them to do.

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

"One of the joys of life and one of the best things in life is like to find a beautiful problem that might occupy all of your life trying to solve it."

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

Tobi talks about how people think we can't do big infrastructure investments like we used to, which is true, but he argues it's because so many of our most talented people have been creating herculean monuments in software instead of the real world.

"People talk about the incredible infrastructure we used to build in the '60s.

How quickly we built subways and now it takes forever and so on. There is an observed degradation of a lot of these kind of projects.

The web browser, Linux, all these kind of things are projects at a scale beyond what the pyramids are."

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

"If you are building the same thing other people build, it can only be similarly good. It can't be actually much better. It can slightly look nicer, but you're bounded a couple percentage points either direction. If you want to build something great or much better, it has to be different.

So this has to be your starting position."

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

My conversation with @tobi, founder and CEO of Shopify.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:49) A problem worth solving
(5:58) Building products people love
(10:14) Why originality matters
(11:47) Conformity in Silicon Valley
(15:47) Founder-led companies
(18:44) Shopify’s AI transition
(23:52) Building with urgency
(26:52) AI for small businesses
(35:18) Raising the standard of living
(41:11) Predicting the future with AI
(48:14) Changing perception on talent
(55:34) Reading and curiosity

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

One of the big changes in venture that Bennett and Kevin discussed is needing to understand a new type of founder -- researchers, which historically didn't always make for great founders but are obviously a huge part of the AI era.

"You have to listen so carefully...every word from a great founder will have so much meaning and intention about what they're gonna build."

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

My guests on Uncapped this week are @kevinhartz and @BennettSiegel, co-founders of the early stage VC firm A*.

They've backed companies like Notion, Mercor, Ramp, Decagon, Similie, and many more. They also announced a new $450m fund today.

We discussed the state of venture capital firms in the current AI cycle, what it means for seed specialists, trends with great founders, and what they're seeing in AI.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:25) The A* Capital story
(1:16) Why big funds went into seed
(7:50) The mother of all bubbles
(10:46) Why founders are getting younger
(13:00) Mapping talent, not markets
(16:31) The rise of AI researcher founders
(19:16) Why seed investing is so hard
(22:54) Concentration and venture returns
(27:34) The AI rollup craze
(31:15) AI vs traditional software
(33:15) Robotics and the future of AI
(35:39) What’s next for A*

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

I sat down with the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi (@mansourtarek_), a prediction market reportedly worth over $20 billion.

After years of struggle, Kalshi won a regulatory battle, culminating with their successful suit to overturn a CFTC decision, giving them the ability to allow consumers to bet on politics, sports, weather, and more.

Tarek shared the history of how he got here and what kind of company he had to build to weather all the uncertainty.

I also got a chance to push him on Kalshi’s place in the world and its potential for positive or negative impacts. I was persuaded by his arguments that it can be a big force for good.

We closed out by talking about his ideas around company building, hiring, and the future of Kalshi. Hope you enjoy.

Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(0:23) Kalshi’s genesis
(5:05) Regulation-focused from inception
(11:06) Suing the government
(18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets
(20:58) Defining insider trading
(25:38) Incentive structure of the system
(32:40) Investing vs. trading
(35:31) Using Kalshi for hedging
(41:38) On keeping a lean team
(44:02) Kalshi’s culture

[UNCAPPED @uncapped_pod]

@jaltma @Max https://t.co/vShynzHWyy

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

Never let a good crisis go to waste.

One of the scariest moment's in Instacart's history was when Amazon bought Whole Foods...their biggest competitor buying their biggest client.

Max tells the story of how they locked in (before locking in was a term) and made it an advantage.

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

Such a good story about how Ravi Gupta helped Instacart focus on profitability when he was COO.

At an all hands he said "we okay we can spend $25k a month on blue bottle, leasing teslas, acquiring 5,000 customers, or 1,000 shoppers.

Raise your hand if you want the blue bottle!"

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

For this episode of Uncapped I got to sit down with my close friend @Max, cofounder of Instacart 🥕

We talked about the key moments of Instacart...how it got started, critical wins, tough losses, competitive dynamics, earned insights, going public, and Instacart's future.

Max is also an awesome startup investor, and we talked about what he looks for in founders, consumer investing, and what he's building with Workshop.

He's one of the best people I know, hope you enjoy.

(0:00) Intro
(0:36) The inception of Instacart
(4:55) Finding product market fit
(7:20) Landing Trader Joe’s
(11:04) Big levers for growth
(13:36) Operationally complex businesses
(14:55) Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods
(17:50) COVID and Instacart’s IPO
(20:02) Prioritizing profitability
(23:21) Avoiding temptations
(24:59) The future of Instacart
(25:53) Investing in consumer
(28:21) Irrationally optimistic founders
(29:49) B2B vs consumer founders
(30:35) How to work with investors
(33:38) Building Workshop

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

This week's guest on Uncapped is @bradlightcap, COO at OpenAI.

We talked about the history of OpenAI, the shift in AI from chat to agents, where new startups can endure, Codex, FDEs, working with Sam, and more. Hope you enjoy!

(0:00) Intro
(0:39) The early days of OpenAI
(3:47) A research centric culture
(7:32) Post-ChatGPT chapters
(11:54) Sci-Fi future or good software
(15:26) AI’s impact on rural communities
(18:57) Codex and coding of the future
(24:04) Doing a lot of things at once
(27:55) What VCs should invest in
(35:43) The software sell off
(38:23) Using Codex over ChatGPT
(42:32) FDEs and Private Equity
(44:53) Working with Sam

[Chris Fralic @chrisfralic]

This is gold - I was fortunate to work closely with Ron on several companies when I started investing 20 yrs ago and it had a big influence. Nobody does it like Ron; these stories are incredible and they’re only a tiny sliver. He’s been building relationships for over 50 years.

[Jack Altman @jaltma]

I had one of the legends of angel and seed investing on Uncapped, @RonConway. He's the founder of SV Angel been an early backer of companies like Google, Facebook, Airbnb, and many more.

We talked about the evolution of tech, being an actively involved investor, the power of being a relationship broker, fighting hard for founders, and some of his stronger feeling in politics.

It was a pleasure to sit down with him. (Also fun to record a podcast episode at a live event, thank you TrueBridge)

(0:00) Intro
(1:50) From semiconductors to AI
(8:39) Two investments that changed everything
(11:46) Non-passive angel investing
(14:57) Becoming a relationship broker
(18:00) Building authentic relationships
(24:48) Going deep with OpenAI and Airbnb
(29:19) Fighting for founders
(31:39) Remarkable returns at seed
(33:20) The state wealth tax
(37:17) Tech and politics