Adam Argo

Get Money, Buy Bitcoin. I like orange dots and I cannot lie.

CPA | FP&A | Modeling | $BTC | $MSTR | Financial Entertainment | Not Financial Advice

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Updated my 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment using today's quote.

Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15x mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
-USD reserve 18 coverage months

10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$832K (~9.3x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$1,876 (~10.5x | 26.5% CAGR)

Model updates:
-Added STRK converts, options outstanding, and RSU/PSU unvested to terminal basic share count

Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.

H/T for reviews: @ZynxBTC | @BTCoptioneer

Model URL: https://t.co/JU3pGllRDV

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

In the spirit of @BTCoptioneer's framework, I am sharing my own 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment.

Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15× mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%

10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$853K (~9x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$2,196 (~12x | 28% CAGR)

Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.

URL: https://t.co/l3mFCNdmKH

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Same $BTC price. Different Strategy | $MSTR.

Feb 5:
• BTC = $63,597
• MSTR = $106.99
• 195,563 sats/share

Jun 3:
• BTC = $65,380 (+2.8%)
• MSTR = $126.55 (+18.3%)
• 220,429 sats/share (+12.7%)

Strategy added 130,204 BTC (+18.2%) while growing each shareholder's BTC by 24,866 sats/share.

Bitcoin was flat.
Strategy's BTC/share wasn't.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@mikealfred Putt

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@thepowerfulHRV Comparing that same metric between Feb 5 & Jun 3:
https://t.co/FFTmdB5Q1W

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Same $BTC price. Different Strategy | $MSTR.

Feb 5:
• BTC = $63,597
• MSTR = $106.99
• 195,563 sats/share

Jun 3:
• BTC = $65,380 (+2.8%)
• MSTR = $126.55 (+18.3%)
• 220,429 sats/share (+12.7%)

Strategy added 130,204 BTC (+18.2%) while growing each shareholder's BTC by 24,866 sats/share.

Bitcoin was flat.
Strategy's BTC/share wasn't.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Same $BTC price. Different Strategy | $MSTR.

Feb 5:
• BTC = $63,597
• MSTR = $106.99
• 195,563 sats/share

Jun 3:
• BTC = $65,380 (+2.8%)
• MSTR = $126.55 (+18.3%)
• 220,429 sats/share (+12.7%)

Strategy added 130,204 BTC (+18.2%) while growing each shareholder's BTC by 24,866 sats/share.

Bitcoin was flat.
Strategy's BTC/share wasn't.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

$BTC
2026 Days 🟢: 77
2026 Days 🔴: 78

Time in the market > Timing the market

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@HermesLux I added MPJPY and MSTR today. Short puts on ASST.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Ranking BTCTC YTD Growth of $1
6/4/26 Update:

BTC -27%
Strive 🇺🇸 2%
Smarter Web 🇬🇧 -10%
Strategy 🇺🇸 -14%
Others range from -15% to -66%

#1 $ASST ↔️
#2 $TSWCF ↔️
#3 $MSTR 🔼1️⃣
#4 $BTCT 🔽1️⃣
#5 $XXI ↔️
#6 $ALCPB ↔️
#7 $MTPLF ↔️
#8 $BRR ↔️
#9 $ABTC ↔️
#10 $NAKA ↔️

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Ranking BTCTC YTD Growth of $1
6/2/26 Update:

BTC -23%
Strive 🇺🇸 9%
Smarter Web 🇬🇧 -5%
BTC Digital 🇨🇦 -9%
Others range from -10% to -64%

#1 $ASST ↔️
#2 $TSWCF 🔼1️⃣
#3 $BTCT 🔼1️⃣
#4 $MSTR 🔽2️⃣
#5 $XXI ↔️
#6 $ALCPB 🔼1️⃣
#7 $MTPLF 🔽1️⃣
#8 $BRR 🔼1️⃣
#9 $ABTC 🔽1️⃣
#10 $NAKA ↔️

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Strategy | $MSTR holds ₿843,706, acquired at an average cost of $75.7K through 111 purchases since August 10, 2020.

The lowest average cost purchase was $10.4K on September 14, 2020, while the highest average cost purchase was $123.6K on October 13, 2025.

At $63.7K $BTC, Strategy has 37 profitable purchase lots (+$6.2B) and 73 underwater lots (-$16.4B), for a net unrealized loss of ~$10.2B. The net unrealized loss consists of $6.5B in net losses purchased within the last year, and $3.8B in net losses purchased outside of the last year.

It's a chart of accumulation. Today's red bars will become tomorrow's green bars.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Strategy | $MSTR has tax-advantaged optionality within their BTC Purchase Lots.

I made a chart after hearing @PunterJeff and FUD Busting discussion on @TNorth yesterday.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Biggie Smalls would like a word.

[Hermes Lux @HermesLux]

They say life gets much less stressful once you own 100 Bitcoin.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@HermesLux Biggie Smalls would like a word.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@BTCoptioneer Or, the market demands a higher yield.
Asset prices are inverse to yields.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Strategy | $MSTR has tax-advantaged optionality within their BTC Purchase Lots.

I made a chart after hearing @PunterJeff and FUD Busting discussion on @TNorth yesterday.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

$BTC Today's 10-day return clocks at 34th worst at -17.7%.

Data back to 2013.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

Today's trailing 10 day period marks a top 50 worst 10 day return for $BTC at -12.1%.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@PunterJeff I'LL BE DINING IN

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@DeItaone

[_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ @_Checkmatey_]

@GhostNumbe50967 Put the DCA on, go for a walk or a swim, and stop checking the price.

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@hillery_dan Btc also looking like deep value here my dear brother

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@MisterLeeHODL @Alice_MiaX We do need to kiss the 200 week moving average 😘

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@BitcoinAIGuy

[Adam Argo @under_____taker]

@HermesLux I’m waiting on my prize. 🏆