Updated my 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment using today's quote.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15x mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
-USD reserve 18 coverage months
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$832K (~9.3x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$1,876 (~10.5x | 26.5% CAGR)
Model updates:
-Added STRK converts, options outstanding, and RSU/PSU unvested to terminal basic share count
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
H/T for reviews: @ZynxBTC | @BTCoptioneer
Model URL: https://t.co/JU3pGllRDV
In the spirit of @BTCoptioneer's framework, I am sharing my own 10 year $MSTR model for financial entertainment.
Assumptions in Base case:
-$BTC CAGR at 25%
-MSTR pinned at 1.15× mNAV
-Preferred demand flat
-Prefs yield 11%
10-year Base case output:
BTC: ~$853K (~9x | 25% CAGR)
MSTR: ~$2,196 (~12x | 28% CAGR)
Super-Bear, Bear, Bull, and Super-Bull also included below. Critics welcome.
URL: https://t.co/l3mFCNdmKH
Strategy | $MSTR holds ₿843,706, acquired at an average cost of $75.7K through 111 purchases since August 10, 2020.
The lowest average cost purchase was $10.4K on September 14, 2020, while the highest average cost purchase was $123.6K on October 13, 2025.
At $63.7K $BTC, Strategy has 37 profitable purchase lots (+$6.2B) and 73 underwater lots (-$16.4B), for a net unrealized loss of ~$10.2B. The net unrealized loss consists of $6.5B in net losses purchased within the last year, and $3.8B in net losses purchased outside of the last year.
It's a chart of accumulation. Today's red bars will become tomorrow's green bars.
Strategy | $MSTR has tax-advantaged optionality within their BTC Purchase Lots.
I made a chart after hearing @PunterJeff and FUD Busting discussion on @TNorth yesterday.
Strategy | $MSTR has tax-advantaged optionality within their BTC Purchase Lots.
I made a chart after hearing @PunterJeff and FUD Busting discussion on @TNorth yesterday.