UnderdogBanter

Who Let The (Under)Dogs Out?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ Had the same reaction, but maybe different reason. If you have the capital, there’s a responsibility to steward, invest and grow it. Post-Economic feels like the mindset which leads generational wealth to dissipate with future generations who lack the same drive and mentality

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@ryanburge I mean…they’re called Liberal Arts

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@brookeleblanc Unreal….so affordable Corgi Cocktail coming soon?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@rich_toad “Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears” book by Daniel Strachman will be a helpful starting point. Perhaps even trying the author himself?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@DanaWessel @britspubmpls North Loop Green will be showing World Cup games this summer too on their big screen projector, along with movie nights

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ Toasty and sunny 85F…downtown Wayzata in full swing

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@brookeleblanc At least you go the beautiful (and flat) SF Bay views to enjoy - keep pushing!

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@raqisright Or just adopt a dog

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@MrMojoRisinX Wonderful post - thank you!

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

Stay busy and create routine. Necessary to avoid relationship strain and for your own mental sanity. Great routine for yourself as much as possible. Be up early / normal like it’s a “work day”. Get out of the house regularly

- Physical Fitness: go daily, set some goals, try new classes or activities
- Be the A+ partner in going the extra mile around the house, keeping things clean, caring for pets, completing projects, etc. Helps to have partner see it’s great having you around a lot (and not simply bingeing Netflix)
- Read: work through that book list you’ve never had time for
- Lessons / Hobbies: explore new ones, take the flight lessons or daily tennis lessons or weekly pottery class…
- Travel: take that trip with your family that’s always been logistically difficult because of being required to stay “plugged in”
- “Consulting”: find a small business, start-up or someone who could use X hours of help per month. Do it if unpaid, just for learning and exposure to something you’re curious about
- Friends: set-up weekly coffees / lunch / meet-ups. You lose a lot of social interaction without being in the office and need to intentionally create this for yourself every single week
- Prep for Job: staying current on trends, earnings, etc. Perhaps even create Excels / templates. To extent a sales person can get you into a smaller conference to attend, etc.
- Don’t be afraid to leave for several hours to just “work” in a coffee shop. Helpful to get out of house and have partner “miss” you periodically (absence makes heart grow fonder)

Good luck!

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ Acting superb, look into 90s NYC, and Brosnan manages to bring the Bond charisma and adventure to a finance guy, all with edge of your seat “will he get away with it?”. One of the few where the remake is better than the original IMO

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@raqisright Wholesome skating date!

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@bennpeifert @f73f73f73 @_nontechnical Appropriate taper

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ @LongOnlyLarry De-risked set-up…already know what you’re getting in the appearance department

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ Any monetizeable insights on Prada (https://t.co/EOGkjS4Ycm)?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ Dude…it was so chaotic

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@27XVII Look up Larry Gies and Madison Industries

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

Historically investors have been rewarded buying OWL whenever it hits 16x P/E.

Understand the fear where we haven’t seen a historic credit cycle in private credit (although recent ARES pres has a nice 20-yr case study on private credit vs. high yield vs. levered loans)…but doesn’t seem like earnings, even at BDC level, are as sensitive to credit and write-offs

Bigger threat to OWL earnings algo seems to be a slowdown in fundraising + deployments. Can see historic periods where big shifts in interest rates or macro events (credit environment worsens) lead to a big decel for a few quarters (saw it with ARCC too). OWL model simply makes their earnings more susceptible to deployment slowdowns (vs. other Alts clipping fees on committed capital)

Could be too early, but seems hard to shoot at the deployments side when the monthly public BDCs fundraising collectively in 3Q and 2025 overall has been stronger YoY. Yes isolated credit incidents, but hard to say widespread industry deterioration as some banks are seeing improved credit quality

Potentially compelling opp to buy if get comfort on the downside for deployment and interest rate sensitivity on earnings…if neither materialize, the growth and earnings algo should take care of itself and current multiple seems like nice entry

Other blind spots here I’m missing?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@victaurs What’s the Short thesis on $OWL?

[UnderdogBanter @UnderdogBanter]

@Investor_NICK_ @OnlyYolo6 @LongOnlyLarry What happened to the lovely “Big Short + Taco Bell at 2a”? Thought that one was going the distance