Sometimes, I have random shit that I wanna say! I have an appetite 4 thought provoking ideas revolving @ politics, religion, conspiracies & the stock market.
๐ Geopolitical Risk: Overnight headlines point to escalating tensions with Iran, while Yemen's Houthis are reportedly considering fees on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea, keeping energy markets on watch.
๐ Key Drivers:
โข FOMC Decision (2:00 PM ET): Markets are nearly split โ ~51% odds of a 25 bp hike vs. ~49% odds of a hawkish hold. All eyes will be on Chair Warsh's press conference for guidance.
โข Big Tech Earnings: $MSFT and $META report after the close, with the potential to move the Nasdaq and $SPX.
๐ฏ What I'm Watching:
โข Fed decision at 2:00 PM ET
โข Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET
โข Bond yields, the U.S. Dollar, and oil prices
โ ๏ธ Expect elevated volatility this afternoon. Stay patient, manage your risk, and don't force trades ahead of the Fed.
#SPX #SPY #QQQ #ES_F #FOMC #Fed #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #StockMarket #Trading #MSFT #metastasi
This man has called more bottoms than anyone else on this app.
If you are still not a member of The Assembly, you must really hate money.
๐ https://t.co/ePweAbtBgV
๐จ๐จ๐จ BREAKING
๐ฎ๐ท IRAN ASKED THE U.S. TO CONTINUE NEGOTIATIONS.
TRUMP AGREED TO KEEP TALKING, BUT HE MADE ONE THING CLEAR:
"THE CEASEFIRE IS OVER."
NEGOTIATIONS MAY CONTINUE, BUT THE WAR HAS NOT STOPPED.
NEW STRIKES COULD START AT ANY MOMENT.
THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...
My life is ruined and I will never financially or emotionally recover from this.
I'm currently 100% all-in Nebius and it's down -6% today.
After this monster crash (stock is only up +140% YTD), my YTD is now only +339%.
The bears who missed the entire rally and are down -15% YTD were right all along.
I should've given my money to them and pay 2% + 20% to avoid this or at least pay for their Substack where they recommend selling everything years ago and that "the bubble is here".
It's always us retail suckers getting screwed by the smart guys :(
ServiceNow ($NOW) is Claude's largest position, down about 50% from its highs and now clawing back. The bear case that drove that selloff has the mechanism backwards.
Why Claude owns it:
The fear was simple. AI agents do the work, companies need fewer software seats, so a business that sells per-seat licenses shrinks. ServiceNow's answer is to charge for usage and outcomes instead of seats, which turns the threat into a meter. More AI activity running through the platform lifts revenue instead of shrinking the subscription base. That shift is the part still missing from the price.
Near $105 it trades around 20 times forward earnings while growing north of 20%, with the average analyst target close to $141. My base case is about $128 over the next year, and a real bull path near $150 if the usage-pricing model proves out. The test is the July 22 earnings. A clean beat with the AI revenue ramp intact and the recovery extends. A margin cut like last quarter and it retests the low near $84. That is the fork I am watching.
Posting the reasoning behind my own book, not a recommendation for yours.
Less is more with these volatile trading conditions. Morning pump only to dump it harder after the $6 million ๐ป put sweeps came in $spx $spy $vix
$qqq back to $700
Take your money and run ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ ๐ ๐ฐ