UpsideDrift

Trading stocks, indices, crypto and onchain markets. Occasionally right for the correct reasons and often right for the wrong reasons

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

So… it’s been a long while

Haven’t posted for a few years having been recovering from medical

But I’m excited to try posting again

All sorts of takes across Crypto, Tradfi

Stay tuned!

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@SirIsaacIn1905 76.6 would be Monday's low.. maybe intraweek low?

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$BTC

Now back at the yearly VAH and looking to break through for the first time since Jan

+ today would prob be DeMark9 on the daily.

Will it be a short term top, or is momentum going to simply carry us through?

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

On this note.. not sure if it’s just me but I think I tend to hold my options positions longer even with large unrealized P&L compared to Perps

[۟ @MINHxDYNASTY]

the psychology of the "big" trade

if youve been in crypto for a while, you dream of making life changing money. but to get there, you need to suddenly find yourself in a position that could potentially change your life. how you play, will dictate the next chapters of it, so move well.

ive been fortunate to be in this position a few times over the last years:

in wif
in bome
in trump
in bitcoin puppets
in pups
in fwog
in a eth long
etc.

we've been blessed time and time again

now just because we were in these trades, being up 6 to 7 figures didnt mean we executed how we wanted. actually there were a few mistakes in a couple of them that i wish i could take back. i roundtripped everything and on a few somehow lost money, because i lost my emotional control.

being in one of these things is crazy...

usually it happens because you are in much earlier before it becomes consensus, before everyone agrees. you might feel like you alone, delusional. it's a weird place, but you have to be convicted and confident. that's a post for another day.

there have 2 main curses that i have seen when being in a "big" trade.

the first, is holding too long. you become so bag biased that you continue to hold. that delusion can actually help you though, especially through the first few days/weeks. but it can hurt you and you can leave so much money on the table. you can burn time, emotions, energy.

the second, is being "too early" and selling off too much of your perfect position just because the dollar amount is big. you got in so early, you are rewarded for being so right, but you're shocked into losing your ability to execute.

in this moment, you have to come back to center, to neutral. calm the mind. detract from YOUR trade. at this point, you are a surfer of the ocean, watch the waves.

after taking initials and some profit ideally, you are now in a "safer" trade. you can hold a little bit comfier. at this point, you have to genuinely ask yourself to put targets. these can be dates, market caps, catalysts. when these happen, you NEED to stick to your systems and take profits.

sometimes, when you do this, you realize that there is still a 100x on the table. other times, you understand you should probably sell everything.

again it comes back to yin and yang, walking the tight rope and balancing all sides. talk to friends you respect. a lot of people will message you and recommend a certain thing. ONLY listen to your people. but the people giving advice, it comes from a place of good wishes. but you should ignore most.

if youve been in this space for a while, your time will come. but never really hunt for them, just focus on constantly winning. a lot of this, will come from muscle memory, knowing how to move. the first time itll be crazy... youll feel things youve never felt before. you might make mistakes! and thats okay, give yourself grace and always stay calm. and feel free to dm me when you find yourself in this situation and need another pov.

just thinking out loud, it's always fun to journal in the midst of being in something crazy.

when youre in it, execute. plan, be disciplined. execute. win.

most importantly, be GRATEFUL you have options now. move always with thankfulness and appreciation for the experience.

[chase @therealchaseeb]

wow

[۟ @MINHxDYNASTY]

the psychology of the "big" trade

if youve been in crypto for a while, you dream of making life changing money. but to get there, you need to suddenly find yourself in a position that could potentially change your life. how you play, will dictate the next chapters of it, so move well.

ive been fortunate to be in this position a few times over the last years:

in wif
in bome
in trump
in bitcoin puppets
in pups
in fwog
in a eth long
etc.

we've been blessed time and time again

now just because we were in these trades, being up 6 to 7 figures didnt mean we executed how we wanted. actually there were a few mistakes in a couple of them that i wish i could take back. i roundtripped everything and on a few somehow lost money, because i lost my emotional control.

being in one of these things is crazy...

usually it happens because you are in much earlier before it becomes consensus, before everyone agrees. you might feel like you alone, delusional. it's a weird place, but you have to be convicted and confident. that's a post for another day.

there have 2 main curses that i have seen when being in a "big" trade.

the first, is holding too long. you become so bag biased that you continue to hold. that delusion can actually help you though, especially through the first few days/weeks. but it can hurt you and you can leave so much money on the table. you can burn time, emotions, energy.

the second, is being "too early" and selling off too much of your perfect position just because the dollar amount is big. you got in so early, you are rewarded for being so right, but you're shocked into losing your ability to execute.

in this moment, you have to come back to center, to neutral. calm the mind. detract from YOUR trade. at this point, you are a surfer of the ocean, watch the waves.

after taking initials and some profit ideally, you are now in a "safer" trade. you can hold a little bit comfier. at this point, you have to genuinely ask yourself to put targets. these can be dates, market caps, catalysts. when these happen, you NEED to stick to your systems and take profits.

sometimes, when you do this, you realize that there is still a 100x on the table. other times, you understand you should probably sell everything.

again it comes back to yin and yang, walking the tight rope and balancing all sides. talk to friends you respect. a lot of people will message you and recommend a certain thing. ONLY listen to your people. but the people giving advice, it comes from a place of good wishes. but you should ignore most.

if youve been in this space for a while, your time will come. but never really hunt for them, just focus on constantly winning. a lot of this, will come from muscle memory, knowing how to move. the first time itll be crazy... youll feel things youve never felt before. you might make mistakes! and thats okay, give yourself grace and always stay calm. and feel free to dm me when you find yourself in this situation and need another pov.

just thinking out loud, it's always fun to journal in the midst of being in something crazy.

when youre in it, execute. plan, be disciplined. execute. win.

most importantly, be GRATEFUL you have options now. move always with thankfulness and appreciation for the experience.

[based16z @based16z]

you spent your whole life working or doing free cashflow analysis just go all in Bitcoin and stop that stupid shit

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@tyler My no moon-math, math says conservative case implies $1500-$3000 $ZEC in 24 months timeframe

https://t.co/sowimqgWtr

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Using very conservative assumptions and being realistic about it, no moon-math :

Considering things like geographical distribution, tech savvy-ness, HNW studies etc.. I estimate on a median basis to see only a few low hundred thousand millionaires interested in privacy wealth or diversifying to assets like zcash:native over a 24 month timeframe.

Then considering typical crypto allocation - be it from their financial advisors or self driven which on a conservative end will range between 0.5-1.5% of net worth..

The conservative case results in potential 1.5-2.5b of inflows over 24 months that would have an implied price range of between $1500 - $3000.

This is the conservative case btw

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Using very conservative assumptions and being realistic about it, no moon-math :

Considering things like geographical distribution, tech savvy-ness, HNW studies etc.. I estimate on a median basis to see only a few low hundred thousand millionaires interested in privacy wealth or diversifying to assets like zcash:native over a 24 month timeframe.

Then considering typical crypto allocation - be it from their financial advisors or self driven which on a conservative end will range between 0.5-1.5% of net worth..

The conservative case results in potential 1.5-2.5b of inflows over 24 months that would have an implied price range of between $1500 - $3000.

This is the conservative case btw

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

There are more millionaires in the world than there are whole units of Zcash. 60 million millionaires and only 21 million ZEC. Think about it.

[Pool 2. Paulie @Pool2Paulie]

Yeah so cash-cat:native looks like zcash:native Thursday

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Is it wise to call $CASHCAT the "next $DOGE" or no?

[Value @valueandtime]

This is what people on the Robinhood app are seeing lol

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

There are more millionaires in the world than there are whole units of Zcash. 60 million millionaires and only 21 million ZEC. Think about it.

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

That said we are poking above anchored VWAP from ATH which is always a good thing

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

"Whatever it takes" rings a bell from the Dragi era

[Charles Gasparino @CGasparino]

SCOOP: Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent will do whatever it takes to "put the fear of God" into the bond vigilantes, shorting the long end of the curve in an attempt to drive the 10 year yield to 5%, Wall Street executives with direct knowledge of his thinking say. That would include buy backs, selling short-term debt, possible elimination of long-dated bonds like the 20 year etc. It's a short-term solution to keep yields from soaring further, strangling growth as the midterms approach, they say, and doesn't address the real problem: Debt now at the $40 trillion level, and competition for capital from AI buildout. Longer term, don't look for austerity coming out of the Trump White House in its remaining years, they say. The plan remains top possibly "grow" out of the debt level through increased tax revs because the cure for such high debt levels would be recession inducing taxes or austerity. Story developing

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

It's nice being long the cat of SOL and cat of RH

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$CASHCAT looks like it wants to go

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@0koNaoko being sent right now

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

$CASHCAT looks like it wants to go

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Since I commented...

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Honest thought.. Is $HYPE now less attractive as a bet to $LIT?

Reason being we now priced in $HYPE being eventually (in some way or form) introduced to the US after Trump's recent mention. While there is definitely still upside if things work out, there is also significant downside if "talks break down" or some issue occurs.

On the flip side, $LIT seems well-positioned either way. If things turn out well, something something rising tide lifts all boats. If the above scenario plays out, it could then be seen as the dominant perps player in the US.

Just a thought...

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

@QwQiao Here's a visual to help anyone reading this

[UpsideDrift @UpsideDrift]

Here is a visual look at it

[qw @QwQiao]

the best historical analog for zec imo is the 2013 btc double bubble. similar htf price action, marketcap range, and community. after breaking the first high (~$250) it took btc just 4 weeks to 4x and reach the second high (~$1100). the zcsh etf may just be the fuel needed for zec to repeat the feat.