100k bearded corgis coming at you hard and fast in a reality based uranium investor SENTIMENT discussion. No big brains allowed (unless they’re guests).
My mom’s new boyfriend just told me my memes are “more useless than NFTs” & that #uranium investing is a “multi level marketing scheme for virgins”
I told him higher prices are inevitable to incentivize new mining he said “I drilled your mom pussy last night"
Any advice?
Expectation is there will be BIG spot #uranium purchasing next week… at least that is the chatter in WhatsApp right now by some pretty reputable fuel buyers
Several people have asked why I’m so bearish on #uranium so here goes:
Generally speaking, my uranium bear thesis is focused on the supply/demand dynamics of the market.
I started doing research into the #uranium space in March 2020. At the time, spot price was ~$30. I was told uranium needed to be in the $50+ (some said $60+) range in order to cover the cost of production. Right now the spot price is $90+ with virtually no new production.
On the supply side, there is a ton of uranium in the world & it is not challenging to mine it at significantly less than current costs. New mines used to take years to come on line (finding, permitting, developing, exporting, etc), this is no longer the case. As a result, there are a relatively large number of companies that actually produce uranium or have the potential to produce uranium in the next cycle.
There are also secondary sources of supply which are harder to find numbers on. What is quantifiable, however, is that Greenland has >1 billion lbs of uranium. Japan has 10 yrs of excess supply. There are 2 trillion lbs of uranium coming from the seawater. Uzbekistan is flooding the market & Sweden is the next hotbed for new uranium mining stocks.
On the demand side, utilities had managed to get by with fuel reserves & long term contracts, however the long term contracts expired while fuel reserves are working their way through the market. This presented a scenario where buyers came into the market to lock in new long term contracts. Instead of negotiating $100+, producers maxed out their contracts for <$50.
There is also the question of China’s growing influence in nuclear, this will increase global demand significantly over the next few decades. China has been &, I am guessing, will continue to secure supply with a long term geopolitical strategic view, which, won’t be a problem given the abundance of supply sources available.
I could be very wrong with all of this haha & it would be great to get a critical eye. I expect equities to decrease from todays levels. My bet is that we start to see these downward moves soon.