Breakevens are telling you the real story: they’re sitting below 2%, and in that world the next move for the Fed is a cut, not another hike. The street clinging to “two more hikes” is reading a 2026 economy with 2016 optics, ignoring both subdued inflation expectations and the supply‑side tilt of Trump‑era policy that points to non‑inflationary real growth
The US 10-year yield re-entered the danger zone (4.5-5.0%) last week, driven entirely by real rates, which have now risen to 2.30%. Investors always face a choice between real and nominal bonds, with nominals often winning, but today I wonder if the paltry 2.26% break-even spread is enough compensation for inflation risk at a time when real rates are as generous as they tend to get.
Introducing USVC - a single basket of high-growth venture capital, for everyone.
No accreditation required, SEC-registered, and a very low $500 minimum.
Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Sierra, Crusoe, Legora, and Vercel. As USVC adds more companies, investors will own a piece of that too.
Liquidity typically comes when companies exit, but we’re aiming to let investors redeem up to 5% of the fund every quarter. This isn’t guaranteed, but if we can make it work, you won’t be locked up like in a traditional venture fund.
It runs on AngelList, which already supports $125 billion of investor capital.
And I’ve joined USVC as the Chairman of its Investment Committee.
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Go back to the 1500s, you set sail for the new world to find tons of gold - that was adventure capital.
Early-stage technology is the modern version. It says we are going to create something new, and it’s risky. It’s daring.
But ordinary people can’t invest until it’s old, until it’s no longer interesting, until everybody has access to it. By the time a stock IPOs, most of the alpha is gone. The adventure is gone. Public market investors are literally last in line.
This problem has become farcical in the last decade. Startups are reaching trillion dollar valuations in the private markets while ordinary investors have their noses up to the glass, wondering when they’ll be let in.
Investing in private markets isn’t easy. You need feet on the ground. You need judgment built over years. Most people don’t have the patience to wait ten or twenty years for an investment to come to fruition.
But there is no more productive, harder-working way to deploy a dollar than in true venture capital.
USVC enables you to invest in venture capital in a broad, accessible, professionally-managed way, through a single basket of innovation, focused on high-growth startups, at all stages.
It is how you bet on the future of tech: the smartest young people in the world, working insane hours, leveraged to the max, with code, hardware, capital, media, and community. Your dollar doesn’t work harder anywhere.
There is an old line - in the future, either you are telling a computer what to do, or a computer is telling you what to do. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that transaction.
USVC lets you buy the future, but you buy it now. Then you wait, and if you are right, you get paid.
Get access here:
https://t.co/pAj1sqUsG0
🇮🇷 Iran is charging $2M per ship to cross the Strait of Hormuz and they want it in Bitcoin. 😳
At $72,000 per $BTC, each ship = 27.7 BTC.
Pre-crisis, 130 ships crossed daily.
• Daily: 3,611 BTC
• Monthly: 108,333 BTC
• Yearly: 1.3 million BTC
The entire Bitcoin network only mines 450 BTC per day.
Iran would accumulate 8x the monthly mining supply. Every month.
A sanctioned nation building a Bitcoin treasury through a toll booth.
This is the most important geopolitical Bitcoin story nobody is talking about. 🔥