Viktor Stöllinger

Cornell ‘27

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@realEstateTrent Thanks for coming! Hope you visit Budapest again soon

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@BoringBiz_ They aren’t alone…

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@BuenoForMiami Good article on this in WSJ back in Feb. https://t.co/mODtdtz52U

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@BoringBiz_ Thanks a lot. Will do

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@BoringBiz_ Subtle 10x+ for Harvard tuition. ~60k today

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@realEstateTrent Budapest, Hungary

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@realEstateTrent @Will_Schryver @BigJohn043 Will admit I’ve had more success reaching out to alumni for networking, though. That’s part of what makes college worth it, as you’ve said many times

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@realEstateTrent As a sophomore recruiting for IB, couldn’t agree more. Shifted most my time from other socials to X. Lots of valuable information on X that you wouldn’t find on more formal sources. @Will_Schryver @BigJohn043 are two off the top of my head for anyone looking to go into IB/PE

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@SawyerMerritt Sawyer, I understand that FSD has already been in China for a while, but restricted to certain features like lane changing. Does today’s approval mean Tsla is on the way to 12.3.6 implementation in China or are there more regularly hurdles that need to cleared for that to happen?

[(fan) Trey @UTDTrey]

This is why we enjoy seeing Arsenal fans suffer btw

[Jeremy Lefebvre @HolySmokas]

Listening to the conference call for the company I have $5k in 😆

[Larry Goldberg @TeslaLarry]

X is abuzz with the latest Optimus video, and I get it…progress has been amazing. A long thread on expectations...

I will probably get criticized by many of my good friends for this perspective, but here goes: assumptions about Optimus working in factories soon, even Tesla factories, are way, way too premature. In fact, most of the Tesla commentators are being far too optimistic about the Optimus timeline.

To date, the evidence we have seen is principally around the hardware improvements: form factor, two degrees of freedom in neck movements, dramatically improved hands, heel-toe walking, loss of 20 Kilograms of weight. Huge improvements. Clearly to be celebrated.

But the challenge of the intelligent robot was never about the hardware: we always knew Tesla were going to design a beautiful, elegantly simple but effective humanoid robot that can be manufactured at scale. Progress in this direction has reinforced this conviction.

No, the giant problem is real world functionality: the ability of the robot to learn and do the myriad of tasks that we expect of it. And in this domain, we have a long, long way to go.

Simply because Tesla may have solved, or are solving, FSD does not mean that Optimus has solved, or perhaps even will solve the ability to learn or emulate useful tasks in the factory or in home from vision or video, let alone voice command.

The number of degrees of freedom demanded to achieve such a level of function is an order, or perhaps even several orders, of magnitude more difficult than FSD (even if it may be less risky from a safety perspective.)

FSD is dealing with a specific domain, with a large body of general rules, modified localized special rules. The spatial problems are also limited in dimensionality, and the travel is always two-dimensional, with four consistently placed tires.

Every single vehicle using FSD solves the exact same problem: in the simplest of terms, it solves a single use case with a very large number of complexities.

Optimus’ movements have many, many more degrees of freedom, its problem set, and movements vary greatly from use case to use case. In contra-distinction to FSD it is targeted to solve a very large number of use cases, each with its own range of complexities, from very simple to very complex.

Think of each potential task, whether in a factory or home environment, as a new use case, each with a unique set of training challenges. Many of these use cases will be completely unique, and new to the software.

With FSD, the software can learn from the fleet. With Optimus, this is far more complex because of this variability of use case.

Over time the software will be able to accrue a functional history, and an ever-growing knowledge of commands, movements, responses, to facilitate the rapid learning of a new use case: but this is going to take a significant amount of time.

We will be not able to beta test Optimus in the home; the first commercial iterations of the ‘bot will need to be in the Tesla factories, under the engineer’s close supervision, focused on limited use cases, and expanded as rapidly as the vision, learning, and software evolve, enabling the ‘bot to progress from the simplest possible use case to ever more complex and useful cases.

Unlike the prognostications of many futurists, this isn’t going to be an assault by an army of mass produced ‘bots, nor even hundreds of humanoids. There may be tens, more likely a handful, of Optimus’ in the first useful implementation to test the software, and the learning process on very limited use cases.

Progress will not depend on evolving the number of ‘bots and tasks – it will be in the small, teaching the humans how to train the ‘bots, and assessing the opportunities on a production line to improve production and improve the ‘bot.

From those early beginnings – not too far away now – Tesla will learn how to proceed, and thus define a project to expand the use of Optimus in the factory. I see this possibly happening in the latter half of 2024, early 2025.

My view is that it will be 2026 before Optimus has a real impact on Tesla costs, and/or prospects for sale into the marketplace, and only then will we start seeing meaningful contributions to costs in the Tesla factories, relatively small at first but ultimately with a huge, almost incalculable impact.

So, while I share in the excitement around Optimus, I would counsel my colleagues in the Tesla community to be a lot more cautious in their pronouncements: Optimus will come, ultimately with enormous - almost incalculable force - but it will not be here overnight, nor in 2024 as many are predicting.

[C. Bradley Thompson @CBradleyThomps1]

650+ Harvard professors have signed a letter to the Harvard Corporation in support of President Claudine Gay.

@Harvard is now in crisis.

The Harvard Board is now stuck between a rock & a hard place: if they fire Gay (also now accused of plagiarism) the faculty will be in revolt; if they keep her, the university will be saddled with a national disgrace.

The faculty letter is also proof that the firing of Gay will have no effect on the moral-intellectual culture @Harvard.

@Harvard is gone. It cannot be saved. Harvard has a $50 billion endowment. It should never again receive a penny of taxpayer money. #defundHarvard

@elonmusk, @BillAckman, @christopherrufo, @realChrisBrunet, @jordanbpeterson, @VDHanson, @rogerkimball, @DouglasKMurray.

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@UTDTrey The Trey jinx @AdamKaroly1

[Viktor Stöllinger @v_stollinger]

@AdamKaroly1 @scrapytweets Can’t wait for karma to do it’s thing ⏳

[Baylor School Sports @RaiderRecap]

Thanks @WRCBsports @paulshahen #GBR

[Chattanoogan Sports @ChattaSports]

Baylor Claims State Titles In Boys And Girls Competition https://t.co/g6sXDgCMw8

[Keith Mitchell @K_m_Mitchell]

Incredible stuff by @baylorschool boys golf team this week! Set an all time state record at 19 under, smashing anything @Harris_English @SJ_sedl_Golf and I came close too while we were on the team together in 2007. See you guys in a few years!

[Baylor School Sports @RaiderRecap]

Baylor wins State for the 20th time setting a new state record in the process

#GBR