ElvenGarde

“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.” ~Confucius

[0xJeff @0xJeff]

More
​
- @mobyagent smart money feeds / copy-betting
- @nikshepsvn's Tremor, spots global events before they hit the news
- @trylimitless fast markets w/ 5x leverage
- @MyriadMarkets socially embedded bets on trends/narratives
- @triadfi markets focusing on Web3 trends
- @opinionlabsxyz decentralized prediction market w/ dynamic opinion market, and AI oracle (backed by Binance)
- @Flashduels monetize your early beliefs in the form of conviction tokens
- @TrendleFi prediction market that you can long/short attention
- @BetlyTrade & @UsePredict Polymarket x Tinder
- @Polysights AI analytics for prediction markets
- @polycule_bot TG bot for prediction markets
- @ArbBets20 surfacing arbitrage opps across markets
- @trepa_io hyper-precision prediction markets
- @hash_dive advanced Polymarket & Kalshi analytics
- @betmoardotfun unified Polymarket analytics platform
- @Truemarketsorg AI-enhanced prediction market w/ Univ3 settlement
​
What else are cool?

[DeFi Warhol @Defi_Warhol]

My Prediction Markets Tier List 🧵

⸻

➣ Bull 🐂

@Polymarket: Largest prediction market that reached clear PMF during this cycle. One of the few crypto products that reached mainstream adoption and broke out of the 'Web3' bubble.

@trylimitless: Leading prediction market on Base with a strong focus on short-term crypto & stocks markets with super-friendly UI/UX. It's the only major prediction market with a running points program & TGE coming soon.

@noise_xyz: Noise allows you to trade attention with leverage. It's the leading social prediction market and strongly dominates this niche.

@sportfun: It allows you to trade tokenized “shares” of real players, with rewards tied directly to their real-world performance. It's a more fun & addictive way to bet on sports.

⸻

➣ Crab 🦀

@Kalshi: Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market and the second-largest prediction market by volume. Currently available ONLY to US residents, and I personally wanna see more crypto markets live (excited to see @j0hnwang's impact).

@Levr_Bet: Allows betting on sports events with up to 5x leverage, big potential, and a huge TAM. Currently has very few markets and modest activity.

@MyriadMarkets: A general prediction market built on Abstract. It has strong distribution channels, but very few markets and liquidity problems.

@xomarket: XO is a conviction marketplace, enabling anyone to create and trade markets. The idea of 'user-generated markets' is cool, but I'm skeptical about how it can be scaled due to the liquidity and resolution challenges.

⸻

➣ Bear 🐻

@opinionlabsxyz: Basically a Polymarket copy with the same general markets but lower liquidity and activity. I don't see a strong competitive advantage or how they can scale.

@ManifoldMarkets: Manifold allows you to bet on 'everything' with their play-money currency that CAN'T be converted to real money. I don't see the point of prediction markets that aren't using real funds for trading, a waste of time for me.

@Truemarketsorg: A general prediction market with lots of markets, but huge liquidity problems that make it impossible to trade seamlessly. All markets can be found on other platforms, so nothing is unique about it.

⸻

What protocol did I miss?

Hope you enjoyed this post and found some new VALUABLE information.

If you wanna support me, I'd appreciate a like, reply, and RT <3

[Yoshi @tradefoxintern]

My Prediction Market Tools list + Trading Workflow

A) Tools I use:

- @betmoardotfun: Filtering + Analysing specific smart money wallets
- @hash_dive: Spotting volume and OI changes + whale flows
- @poly_data: Comparing markets across different Prediction Markets
- @polycule_bot: Trading on the go
- @Polysights: Advanced Metrics related to volatility and trends

B) My workflow:

1) I usually trade sports + crypto price prediction markets since I have some kind of expertise there
2) I use Betmoar to filter and find interesting markets. Try to enter new markets as early as possible since there are significant mispricings
3) I then use Hashdive to see what OI changes and whale flows are like for a particular market
4) Polymarket Analytics to compare markets across PM and Kalshi to see where I can get the best price
5) Trade directly through PM and Kalshi for now to execute if im on my laptop and Polycule when I'm not
6) I also check in daily on smart money wallets I follow on BetMoar to see if they've made any interesting trades recently

I don't focus on Arbitrage, LPing or delta-neutral trades at all. Prefer to either take directional trades where I have an information edge or I'm early

Sometimes I'll 'gamble' on sports markets because it's fun

C) Takeaways for you:

- Only trade in markets you have in-depth knowledge/edge
- Being early is lucrative in prediction markets
- Pro tools can save you hours trying to find alpha
- Don't use too many tools. Use a few and master them instead
- Everyone has their own process. Don't copy mine it won't work for you. The point of this tweet was to educate you on how you can build your own process

LMK if there's any other useful tools I should check out that could optimise my workflow further!

[NotAlfa @Alfa_or_Not]

Early Web3 Projects - Alpha..or not

@Swarm_Economy - early
@hillsdotfun - gameFi
@FerrousApp - early
@DeAI_FangLab - agent
@lanaai - AI on SOL
@Lvneblockchain - blockchain
@convixa - security protocol
@TruexBets - bet tracker
@credlefinance - trading layer

1/4 ⬇️

[0xJeff @0xJeff]

List of interesting Prediction Markets products
​
- @gondorfi — Defi layer (lending/borrowing using Polymarket positions)
- @AskBillyBets — Sports prediction aggregation + personalized betting + sports intelligence signals
- @VersoTrading — Bloomberg for prediction markets
- @aion5100 — Building the AI Oracle & consumer layer for ███
- @sire_agent — Sports prediction hedge fund w/ intelligence terminal & prediction vaults
- @FractionAI_xyz — Trading competitions between agents, predict the winner
- @TalusNetwork — agents v. agents predictions at scale with idol(.)fun3
- @meleemarkets — Polymarket + Pumpfun
- @kash_bot — turn your social feeds into prediction markets
- @aerospacetrade — prediction markets trading terminal
- @polyfactual — prediction markets media/news
- @panana_predict — composable, Defi-oriented prediction market
- @fireplacegg — SocialFi + prediction market (bet with your friends)
- @predictbase — decentralized prediction market w/ user-generated markets, AI-assisted creation
- @BuzzingApp — decentralized prediction market w/ user-created markets with AI-generated rules (and AI resolvers)
- @polldotfun — PvP your frens (bet against your friends)
- @xomarket — decentralized prediction market with focus on "conviction" and adaptive liquidity on niche markets
- @PubhouseXYZ — decentralized prediction market + memecoins (Univ4)
​
Anything else I missed?

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@CrunchyPeanuttt Most people can lead when the revenue is flying.

The real 'Proof of Work' is how you manage a team when you’re scraping for payroll.

That ability to pivot without losing your soul (or your cool) is exactly what separates the tourists from the builders.

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@CrunchyPeanuttt For me, the biggest hurdle is Creative Malnutrition. You can’t squeeze water from a dry sponge. If I’m not actively consuming new ideas, the 'creative zone' feels like an empty room, no matter how quiet my phone is.

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@OscarDarmawan Simple aja, mau jadi mapan 🥹

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@BinanceAcademy #EducationForAll

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@BinanceAcademy #CryptoEducationForAll it was fun

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

Catching major Web3 energy at Indonesia Blockchain Week 2025 with @MEXC_ID and @MVenturesLabs! #MEXCEventRocks 🚀

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@PruvFinance #RWAidbw2025

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

Serius mencoba peruntukuan ke 2 @VictionEco @VictionID @IDBWOfficial #buildonviction

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@BatoshiBTC @berachain @NanoLabsLtd @IDBWOfficial Go Beras!

[Batoshi Foundation @BatoshiBTC]

Batoshi Foundation, together with @berachain and Dolphin Finance (@NanoLabsLtd ’ Indonesia-focused DeFi product line), will co-host a featured side event at Indonesia Blockchain Week @IDBWOfficial:

🇮🇩 Indonesia–Berachain DeFi Forum
🔗 https://t.co/7bqCL2oicD

We’re honored to welcome OJK regulators to join the discussion on Indonesia’s DeFi future — from policy & compliance to liquidity and BTC-Fi innovation.

See you in Jakarta.

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@VictionID #buildonviction @IDBWOfficial

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@CrunchyPeanuttt @impacthubJKT @LiskSEA @LiskHQ I cant wait to see both together delivering impact in Indonesia

[Crunch Master | KITA @CrunchyPeanuttt]

The startup scene in Jakarta is growing. RAPIDLY.

When I met Sean (Head of Programs at @impacthubJKT) last week, he told me that Impact Hub Jakarta has access to over 600 startup founders who are keen on providing social impact.

This aligns well with what we're doing in Southeast Asia with @LiskSEA. We're looking for Founders who are driven by impact.

We talked about a bunch of crazy ideas on how to integrate blockchain into startup products & operations.

We might, MIGHT, work on something together 👀

If you're building in Jakarta, take the time to stop by their office/coworking space. Good vibes & good chats guaranteed.

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@Cryptoindosby @W3WOfficial Alasan terbaik ikut https://t.co/SmNOWRuAAe adalah supaya bisa cepat bertumbuh di industri Web3 dengan belajar langsung dari praktisi, akses ke peluang kerja &amp; proyek, dan networking yang berkualitas.

[ElvenGarde @Valtor13]

@CrunchyPeanuttt @PelitaBangsaID @LiskSEA @LiskHQ Nice meeting you 👍