valueguy

Son. Husband. Father. Investor.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @k_valancius @Interloper7777 @marc__8005v @hridayakuhara @Abbas62413663 @Please_NoLabels @simple_setups @AchillesofHomer @Presidente_Pang @Researcher71222 @troll_buddy @Ali74475Ali @SJones67581 @VasSze95415 @RobbieG6000 @jammin_jp @burlingamespurs @RogierTaylor @m24ffa @Diego1357342 David every single component of inflation was higher in the report yesterday. I’ve been reading your responses and you seem to be in denial. Yes inflation may turn down but it’s a long process!

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@Seniorstrategen Gemini says this is negative risk assets!

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio It’s not just about today. If I longed the S&P, gold, silver, TLT and was short oil at the begining of the year I would not be having a good year. This CPI (along with last CPI) confirms that we are not going to reverse anytime soon.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio All year the market has moved against you. As someone who has watched markets for a long time just saying to your followers that there is a delay to the melt up will gain you more respect not less!

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @PalisadesRadio Great interview again David. Here is what we see the markets doing: yield curve is flattening, real rates are rising, credit spreads at the low end are blowing out, and this is hitting equities (look at equal weight). Your forecast may be right but we have a speed bump coming.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@Seniorstrategen Long rates not declining despite a bad jobs report. Any theories as to why?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @davidlin_TV The fact that yields are rising today despite a bad jobs report and oil falling further show that it’s real rates that are increasing. I’ve never heard you talk about real rates, David.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @davidlin_TV Thanks David. I recently heard David Rosenberg who said inflation component of the yield has not moved up and the real yield has been moving up so this would mean it has nothing to do with Iran or the war. Does that make sense?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes David - do you buy into the theory that yields are rising because of competition for capital? Deficits plus AI Capex is overwhelming savings?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes I’ve been reading your replies and understand that your call remains the same but have not seen a good reason for why yields should be lower

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes What is even the thesis anymore on rates? U.S. economy is not weak. The yield increase is not only a U.S. phenomenon. Look at Japan. Look at France and esp France vs other EU countries so bond investors are sniffing out problems.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes I was referring to your rate and dollar call.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes Warsh has now cried uncle. The reason stocks are down is because Warsh said ‘removing a dose of accommodation’ and market is penciling in 3 total raises. I understand it’s a cycle call David but in markets sometimes there is no difference between being wrong being and early.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes Let’s hope the increase in 30 year today is a head fake and it doesn’t keep going up until Warsh cries uncle.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes Still watching and learning David but yields and USD have not been going your way. I see that you mention Iran but inflation is not all oil. It is hyperscalers capex, it is services.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@Seniorstrategen From an alpha perspective - do you think being in MAGS, IGV, EM, Rate Sensitive, Precious metals - is better as these have lagged so far? Anything in specific you think will do better.

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@AMeshkati @RyanDetrick Still in $orcl? How’s that does on the distribution/accumulation scale?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @AsMinWishes David - the dollar has been much stronger because economy and productivity in the U.S. has been better than ROW. Why would this change?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@jam_croissant Where did he say anything about people owning stocks?

[valueguy @valueguy3]

@DaveHcontrarian @_OutlierTrading I saw the interview again and the thesis rests on Hormuz but here is the thing:

-Consumer electronics going up in price due to memory
-Crude derivatives are inflating
-Employment is holding up
-Fund raising by AI crowding out capital from bonds

Honestly trying to understand