Growth and maintenance CapEx: how much for each?
We know $HCC is expanding operations with the new Blue Creek project.
Existing mines are operational, so they already split it for us!
#ValueInvesting
Today it’s all about Owner Earnings.
I will show a real example of how to split growth and maintenance capex for our queen this week - $HCC.
From here, we’ll do a “back-of-the-napkin” calculation to get things started.
@grok, explain “back-of-the-napkin calculation”!
the company must create at least $1 of market value over time.
If a company pours money into Growth Capex but ROIC declines – the cash should have been returned to investors.
Check the last 5 years: Did the increase in EPS justify the total Retained Earnings?
Not all growth is good growth.
Most managers destroy value when they try to get bigger.
Buffett's Insight: Buffett is willing to retain earnings (rather than pay dividends) on one condition: For every $1 retained ..
@BrianFeroldi If it’s a loan on a car you just want for fun, then no.
If it’s a loan on a car you must have to get to work, it’s okay.
Money in or money out?
the business dies.
Many investors see high capital expenditures and think "expansion," when the company is actually just running in place to avoid collapse.
CTA: Search the conference call transcripts – does management provide a specific number for Maintenance #Capex?
The Maintenance Capex Trap
Growth? First, prove you are surviving.
Buffett's Insight: The most critical number missing from GAAP reports is the split between Maintenance Capex and Growth Capex.
Maintenance is an existential cost. If you don't spend it…