Valuespectrum

focusses on everything about value investing in the US, Europe and beyond. Daily analyses, reports and screeners. Bottom up fundamental!

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

The #Gold/#Platinum ratio has a better track record than most of the other better known indicators
For 2025 the GP-ratio predicts the #SP500 will finish the year at appx 6950 pts
At current level, this implies a gain of 24%
Unfortunately geopolitics’ risk are on the rise

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

European stocks haven’t kept up with #WallStreet since 2009, but are on a roll
The #EuroStoxx50 is the benchmark of 50 blue-chip companies from 11 countries in the eurozone
The #SP500 tracks the performance of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Wall Street’s turmoil
The S&P 500 eyes bear market territory as Trump’s tariffs triggered a global sell-off
#WallStreet #SP500 #Nasdaq #Volatility #Gold #OIl #BondMarkets

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Widening the view
#FactorInvesting works better with European #Stocks than American
Lower economic growth > lower corporate profits > lower #StockMarket returns > greater need for generating excess return > more focus on distinct factors
#Value #Size #Momentum #LowVol #Quality

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Teddy bear or Grizzly
The current correction could morph into a #BearMarket
Bear markets occur every seven year on average
If the current correction continues, this will be the third bear market in less than seven years
#SP500 #WallStreet #Bonds #Commodities

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

The Big Five of factor investing
Factors help investors understand differences in long-term returns
Factor investing targets securities with specific characteristics and can be used to enhance returns or manage risk
#Value #SmallCap #Momentum #LowVolatility #Quality

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Since 1980 #WallStreet experienced 6 bull & bear markets
Bear markets declined on average 36% in 14 months
Whereas bull markets middling lasted 6.2 years and returned 333%
Yet, nobody knows when the ongoing #bullmarket will end and how severe it will be
#SP500 #Bonds #Commodities

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Risk on, Risk off
Donald Trump’s election victory was seen as the swan song for #European #Stocks
Forget #MAGA, Investors want MEGA [Make America/Europe Great Again] and are now betting it could actually be the opposite
#WallStreet #StocksInFocus #MarketsOnTheMove

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

The performance of different asset classes by decade from the 1950s to 2023
In the first 4 years of this decade U.S. large cap equities have earned 12% return, making it so far, the most profitable asset class in the 2020s.
#SP500 #Bonds #Gold #Oil #WallStreet

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

As goes January, so goes the year
The January indicator is a statistical oddity as it lacks scientific evidence
For 2024 January's return foretells a great year for the #SP500
If it turns out differently, there are three kinds of lies: little lies, damned lies and statistics

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Estimating future drawdowns
Sooner or later markets are going to be hit, but how hard?
Rule of thumb: drawdown = 3.3 x sigma
#SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #WallStreet

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Momentum is the premier market anomaly and contradicts the strategy of buying low and selling high
The #momentum factor prevails in the market due to irrational behavioral biases of investors such as herd mentality, fear, greed and confirmation bias
#SP500 #WallStreet

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

In theory a stock split compares to cutting a piece of cake. It doesn’t impact a company’s fundamental position and therefore creates no additional value
In practice the number of shares outstanding increases. This will boost its stock’s liquidity
#WallStreet $NVDA

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Although there are regional differences in the first half of 2024, #Momentum stocks outpaced the broad market, and #Quality became a momentum trade. #LowVolatility is along with Enhanced #Value the worst performing factor.
#SP500 #WallStreet #European #StockMarket

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Concentration vs Diversification
Apparently Harry Markowitz found a free lunch in finance
#Diversification involves investing across various assets
#Concentration focuses on a limited number of assets
What wins in the long term: Index fund or Top 10 S&P stocks?
#WallStreet #SP500

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

On Monday the #Nikkei dropped 12%, marking its largest decline since 1987
The fear gauge surged to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis
Japan’s market turmoil led shares in Europe and New York lower, with American investors notably more concerned
#SP500 #VIX #STOXX

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

The markets are doing well this year, and some stocks do very well. That invites #WindowDressing.
Not only do #momentum stocks gain strength as the year progresses, the also perform well in the last three months of the year, traditionally the strongest quarter.
#SP500 #WallStreet

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

#Stocks do not move in a straight line, but some do exhibit an exceptional linearity, such as Rollins for example.
$ROL outperformed the #SP500, with less volatility and smaller drawdowns.
Bear in mind historical results are never a guarantee for future returns.

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Is the #MagnificentSeven still a good bet for 2025?
The Bull Case sees the #Mag7 reaching 34193 pts, a rise of 41.4%
The Base Case predicts 27514 pts, an increase of 13.8%
The Bear Case foretells a drop to 20574 pts, a loss of 14.9%
#WallStreet #SP500

[Ivan Snurer @IvanSnurer]

Get to know: the new S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Family
Almost two decades after the introduction of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats S&P Global launched last September the S&P 500 Quality FCF Aristocrats
#SP500 #Aristocrats #Dividend #Quality @WallStreet