VanKotek

i‘m blue and a cat $TOSHI

[Pandu @gusipandu]

1/
$FABLES FDV is too high" is focusing on the wrong numbers.

People say it's overvalued at a 400m FDV now.

I think they forget the most important variable:

Fee generation per TVL.

A comparison with $AERO when it first hit $100k fees in 24h in feb 2024.🧵

[Pandu @gusipandu]

@zeroxkyle Agree. There is one "DEX Project" that is not competing with Uniswap, but improves efficiency around Uniswap Pools. Give @Fables $PROLOGUE a read. Especially their idea on dynamic fees when stock market is closed to shrink Impermanent Loss/LVR is really interesting.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

There is the exit liquidity! Thank you.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

SpaceX's IPO is reportedly nearing 4x oversubscription roughly $250B in indicated interest. Impressive. Also familiar.

Different asset class, identical sentiment: the solana:6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN token launched into the same euphoria. Demand peaks before price does. Oversubscription isn't strength, it's confirmation that everyone is already positioned.

When a launch absorbs every willing buyer at the high, there's no marginal bid left to hold it up.

TRUMP drew down ~90% from its open.
IPOs historically retrace 60–70% once the high is in.

Spotting the euphoria was never the hard part. Timing where the high prints is and retail rarely gets that part right. Good luck!

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

Feel free to test one of the best bitcoin indicators out there:

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[DopeOxide @DopeOxide]

.@Toshi - Face of Base

-> Only meme besides $PEPE & $SHIB to have done 1B+ volume in the eth + L2 ecosystem

-> Highest retail(reddit) community size after $PEPE & $SHIB

-> First @base memecoin, First non-rug cat coin

-> Coinbase products dating back to 2014 have been named Toshi (Mascot)

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨The simulation isn’t even trying anymore 😂
Bitcoin 2026 weekly chart = 2018 weekly chart = 2022 weekly chart.

Exact same dance:

• Price
• 200DMA
• Realised Price
• STH Cost Basis
• True Mean Price

Are we living in a simulation…⁉️
or does human behaviour literally never change? (Maybe we have to wait for the ai agents)

History doesn’t repeat…
but it’s copy-pasting perfectly. What do you think?

#Bitcoin #BTC

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

Er will Lösungen finden seine Reputation wieder aufzupolieren... Ich hätte ihm ja geholfen, aber der Kerle hat mich ja geblockt. Seis drum,...von dieser Sorte gibt es einige...

Irgendeine traurige Lebensgeschichte, "ich habe verstanden wie Geld funktioniert", zwar erst seit 3 Jahren, weil ich davor Schokoriegel und Supplement vertrieben habe, aber jetzt kann ich ja meine Reichweite nutzen und Leute coachen..... Top, schnell mal paar Lernviedos von absoluten Basics hinrotzen und teure Kurse/Abos verkaufen,.... Altcoinseason jeden Tag ausrufen, Kunden verlieren massivst Geld, aber vllt liegen wir irgendwann mal richtig, Mindset Leute, ihr müsst euer Mindset bilden, durch den Schmerz durchgehen, ... (Haus und Hof sind zwar verspielt,... aber hey Mindset ist alles)

Millionen an Kundengeldern einsammeln, während deren Mindset indoktriniert wird, ja Millionen! und einfach nur einen Sektengedanke pflegen in der eigenen Community,.... Wacht auf Leute! Vergleicht die ganzen Communities mal, checkt deren wirkliche Herkunft...

Man kann durchaus für Dienstleistungen bezahlen, aber was bekommt ihr dafür? Hinterfragt das bitte stets. Ob man wirklich so gut in (s)einer Community aufgehoben ist,... dann schau deine Performance an. Wenn du jetzt im Minus bist, bist du schlecht beraten! Ganz einfach.

Lasst euch bitte nicht Ködern von Anfängern im Anlagebereich!

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

Would be better to unfollow them.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

DOWn it goes,.. see you at 45,2k-43,5k (major support), the breakdown has happened and we already lost 8% 🤑😎

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨 ETH Relief rally ≠ trend reversal. Don't get fooled!

Don’t confuse green weeks with a new bull.
ETH has already taken a ~60%+ hit from the highs.

After that kind of damage, a bounce is normal, markets don’t move in straight lines. In bear markets you often get strong countertrend rallies that last longer and run higher than most expect, just to trap late buyers and wipe leverage.

But zoom out and keep it simple: as long as ETH stays inside the broader bear-market structure, this is still countertrend territory. The macro range is wide, and the key point from the transcript remains: the 2022 lows (~$900) haven’t been swept. That keeps the downside door open in 2026.

Short-term roadmap (technicals):

First upside magnet: $2.4k (current reaction zone)
Next: ~$2.6k (FVG / liquidity fill)
Then: ~$2.8k (mid-range area where rallies often stall)

Even a push into $2.6k–$2.8k wouldn’t “prove” a new bull, it could still roll over.

This is exactly why high leverage gets punished: ETH can squeeze up first, stop out shorts, then continue lower.

This part of the cycle can be boring and deceptive: weeks of chop or upside, and then the next leg down.

2022 showed the same pattern — relief rallies, followed by deeper breakdowns.

👉Conclusion👈
Expect short-term upside + chop, but don’t call it a reversal too early. As long as the 2022 low remains untested, a 2026 low sweep is still a valid base case. We are waiting for the next BIG SHORT 😍

Structure > Hopium.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨The market isn’t bullish when price goes up.
It’s bullish when PARTICIPATION shows up, does it?

The Daily Exchange Volume (7DMA) is the cleanest “who’s actually here?” metric.

05.10.21 bull peak: $164B

25.09.23 bear low: $10B

This cycle peak (16.10.25): $103B

👉First Conclusion:

This cycle never reached 2021-style mania participation. Different regime: less euphoria, more structure — but what does it look like right now? 👇

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨 (1/2) MIND BLOWING: Brian Armstrong - The CEO of Coinbase said somthing without big public attention.

"Very soon there are going to be more AI agents than humans making transactions.

They can’t open a bank account, but they can own a crypto wallet. Think about it."

In other words: Crypto is the native financial rail for AI, why? 👇

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨 BTC is “cheap” — but that doesn’t mean the bottom is in. 🤐

AVIV Ratio + True Market Mean:

BTC is trading close to its on-chain trend baseline.
True Market Mean is currently ~78.4k. The −1.5σ band is ~43.6k and has been trending lower since its peak around ~45.4k.

AVIV is back in the value zone (around −1σ, leaning toward −1.5σ). Historically, AVIV spikes near +1σ to +2σ align with overheated tops, while deep dips near/under −1σ to −1.5σ signal late bear-market conditions.

Key point: Value ≠ Bottom.

AVIV says “cheap vs. trend,” but this is not a defined bottom zone yet, it can still get cheaper in price terms.

👉 Conclusion 👈

Accumulate with a clear plan — but keep enough dry powder for lower prices.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

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[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨ALARMING🚨: This is not capitulation. Not even close! We're not "COOKED" enough yet.

This is NOT a bottom. And Percent Supply in Profit alone does not prove it is.

There is a dangerous narrative spreading right now around Percent Supply in Profit.

Yes, supply in profit has declined.
But that metric cannot be viewed in isolation.
The key question is:
How deep are we into a bear market structurally?

True #bear #market bottoms are defined by:
• Maximum unrealized losses
• High realized losses
• Almost no unrealized profit left in the system
• Emotional and structural exhaustion

Now look at Relative Unrealized Loss.

Yes, it is rising.
But at ~0.18, it is nowhere near historical capitulation zones (0.5–0.6).
That means:
Many holders are underwater —
but not deeply enough to trigger forced selling.
A massive portion of supply was accumulated near ATH regions.
Those holders are sitting in manageable losses, not devastating ones.

That is discomfort. Not despair.

Now add Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio.
It is still in positive territory.

On average, the market is still sitting on more unrealized profit than unrealized loss.

That is NOT a late-stage bear market structure.
Real bottoms require:

• Widespread pain
• Structural profit compression
• Aggressive flush of supply
• Loss dominance across cohorts
We are not there.

Long story short:

Percent Supply in Profit alone does not signal a bottom.

Deep bear markets end in capitulation.
We have not seen that yet.

The hardest phase is likely still ahead.

Spread this to the #WORLD!!!! Repost - repost - repost!!! Follow for more #ALPHA.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨Lets take a look on $SOL: Solana Cost Basis Distribution Update.

This CBD map shows where supply was historically accumulated and at which price levels large cohorts established their cost basis.

The bright clusters above current price indicate significant historical accumulation. A large portion of supply is now positioned at higher levels, meaning many holders are sitting on BIG unrealized losses.

When price trades below major supply clusters, two dynamics typically emerge:

Overhead supply creates resistance on relief rallies.

If thin zones below are entered, price can accelerate due to lack of structural support.

Right now, SOL is drifting into a relatively lighter liquidity region. That does not guarantee continuation lower — but structurally, the cushion below is limited compared to the heavy distribution overhead.

Market structure suggests pressure remains.

Hope is not support.
Supply distribution is.

@fuelkek additionally to your post about #SOL
If this adds value, support it.
Like. Follow. Share. Thanks a lot.

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

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[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

@saylor buy low. not high michael.

You have the wrong STRATEGY

[SZN Labs 🇨🇭 @SZNLabs]

🚨⚠️ONLY FOR INVESTORS: Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Update combined with market sentiment.

This chart tracks Net Unrealized Profit/Loss relative to market cap and maps it to psychology phases.

Blue marks euphoria and late-cycle distribution.
Orange marks fear and rising stress.
Red marks capitulation and structural bottoms.

We are cooling from elevated profit levels, but we are not in red. We are not even deeply in orange.

Historically, sustainable cycle lows form during prolonged fear and real capitulation.

That phase is still missing.
!! Downside risk remains. !!
The reset is not complete.

Structure first. Emotion later.

If this adds value, support it.
Like. Follow. Share. Thanks a lot.