US consumers are getting less optimistic about the future:
Americans' perceived probability of finding a position in the next 3 months after a job loss are down to 50%, the lowest level since April 2021.
Outside of the pandemic, this is the lowest percentage in 10 years, according to the Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
This coincides with new job postings on Indeed declining for the past 3 years and reaching near the lowest since 2020.
Furthermore, consumers’ perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next 3 months jumped to 14.2%, the highest since April 2020.
Concerningly, the probability of missing a payment for those earning over $100,000 hit the highest in at least 10 years.
Why is there such a large disconnect between data and how Americans feel?
It's really interesting that @aoTheComputer launched their $AO token just a few days ago, and literally no one is talking about it.
Here's why I like it:
Built by the OG @samecwilliams, who's also the founder of @ArweaveEco.
It’s based on genuinely new technology that I haven't fully grasped yet, but it looks like they're working on something truly innovative - far beyond just another boring L1 or L2.
It was a totally fair launch: all tokens were distributed to Arweave holders and liquidity providers.
There were no special allocations for insiders or even the team (although I assume they got their share by holding $AR).
It’s not on any CEXs (yet), and it’s not even listed on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap.
No financial advice here, but this gives me early $TAO vibes - back when it was still under the radar before taking off.
January CPI Inflation Expectations:
1. Kalshi: 2.9%
2. Bank of America: 2.8%
3. Barclays: 2.9%
4. BNP Paribas: 2.9%
5. Citigroup: 3.0%
6. Goldman Sachs: 3.0%
7. Moody's 2.8%
8. Morgan Stanley: 2.9%
9. UBS: 3.0%
10. Wells Fargo 2.9%
@Kalshi's prediction markets expect 2.9% as the headline number and have accurately predicted 6 of the last 7 CPI numbers.
A CPI reading above 2.9% would mark the 4th consecutive monthly increase.
Inflation remains in the spotlight.
Shocking stat of the day:
Total consumer credit in the US surged by a record +$40.8 billion in December.
This is a sharp turnaround from the -$5.4 billion decline posted in November.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, jumped +$22.9 billion ALONE in December.
Non-revolving credit, covering student and auto loans surged +$18.0 billion.
Over the last 5 years, total consumer credit has risen +$950 billion to an all-time high of $5.1 trillion.
Americans are still "fighting" inflation with debt.
AI hype is alive and well:
A record 50% of S&P 500 companies have mentioned “AI” during Q4 2024 earnings calls.
The percentage has risen 5 TIMES over the last 2 years.
Even with the DeepSeek disruption seen 2 weeks ago, large cap technology stocks continue to funnel CapEx into AI.
Amazon and Alphabet alone are guiding a massive $179 BILLION in combined CapEx for 2025.
S&P 500 companies continue to suggest that AI has prompted the next major wave of innovation and growth.
The AI trade is still booming.
Something doesn't add up here:
MANY of the US' problems will be solved with the elimination of our $1.8 TRILLION deficit.
After announcing spending cuts of $1B/day, DOGE's access to US spending data is being blocked.
Why is DOGE being resisted so strongly?
(a thread)
It's official:
The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) is now down ~$2.5 TRILLION from its peak in December 2022.
The US is borrowing so much debt to fund deficit spending that the RRP has been DEPLETED to a 1,386 day low.
What does it mean? Let us explain.
(a thread)
🚨 @Mastercard understands that @avax L1 architecture is superior for asset tokenization:
In their recent report, @Mastercard highlights that @avax's interoperable L1 ecosystem isolates congestion, enables faster transactions, and supports tailored solutions with native integrations--so that institutions can meet technical and regulatory demands.
🔺Pay attention & read more here👇
The Bonding Curve Documentation for https://t.co/JPtpdhyfn3
It is super comprehensive and gives you an idea of how to build any Bonding Curve on AO.
With on-chain curve math (Newton’s method, integer exponent, fractional powers).
https://t.co/tdAlq8vpqZ
$AR update.
✅ Breakout out of falling wedge
✅ Pullback to support
✅ Now forming double bottom
Nothing bearish here. Not the time to fade this ecosystem with their launch into AI supercomputing $AO mainnet coming next month
@ArweaveEco@aoTheComputer
UKRAINE: Zelensky has reportedly offered at least one NATO leader half a billion euros in exchange for his support of NATO membership for Ukraine. How many other NATO leaders have been compromised? Where is Zelensky getting all of the extra cash?