Vegeta 🧃

Monaco 2025 🌴🌴🌴

[FatMan @FatManTerra]

Riveting question. The reason I don't know what the "LA vape cabal" is is because a few years ago I left "the trenches," which is a negative sum value extractive time sucking slaughterground. I renewed my career path and started a business. For many, getting a job is +EV.

This is hard to digest for those that were promised riches and financial freedom if they bought XYZ influencer's next poocoin or whatever people call it these days. But if you study the track record of all of these influencers - yes, pretty much all of them, not targeting anyone in particular - these coins and "projects" tend to end up in the ground, and the influencers tend to end up much richer. This is the real time-tested legacy of the garbage shilled on here, if you observe with any sort of objectivity and without rose-tinted glasses.

The majority of you are of average intellect (at best), do not have any insider information, and are gambling (with odds worse than casinos) on the hopes that one day, one of these "plays" you found scrolling Twitter will somehow retire you. These people - actually, these parasites - feed on that hope. It's not happening.

Most of you are better off moving on, getting a job, trying to start a business (it's never been a better time to start an online startup!) and trying to create some positive value in the world. Fairly unpopular thing to suggest this side of Twitter, but if a couple of people hear this and decide to change the trajectory of the next few years of their lives, it'll be satisfying enough. You'll be able to look back and know you actually did your best. The others will look back and kick themselves for being dumb enough to give up the best years of their lives to -EV hypergambling on bundled ponzis and making the "LA vape cabal" or whatever the f*ck a tiny bit richer.

[Charlie @btc_charlie]

GM

I hope this doesn't work out.

[Vegeta 🧃 @vegeta_degen]

@Diskrt55 @Gold_Cryptoz Sure 🤣

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Something interesting is happening with $BTC...

Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin’s clinical market cycles. Historically, bear markets last about 365 days, and by that metric we’re roughly 1/3 in.

What’s different this time is speed. Price is dropping faster than usual, 1.25x. Since BTC topped in October, earlier than past cycles, it’s reasonable to expect the bottom to arrive earlier too.

My base case: we bottom in August, not Q4. That’s why I’m planning to accumulate between June, August.

Part of this is intuition, but the structure supports it.

Cycles appear to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will increasingly absorb miner and OG selling pressure. When that balance shifts, BTC may start behaving less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle profile.

Based on drawdown math, we’re likely 22–30% from the bottom. Historically, smart money builds spot positions in the -40% to -60% range. I don’t expect a -70% drawdown this cycle.

I think we’re 20% away from the bear market low, with the bottom forming in Q3.

Using the 365-day model, there are 200 days left to a formal bottom. That gives us two paths:

• slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed, or
• a faster dump that ends the bear cycle early

I am betting that we bottom sooner. So I am buying at

69K.
65K.
60K.
55K.
50K.
45K.

Don't cry because its over, smile because it happened.

Note: In regards to massive swing longs, you will know when I am long.

[Motif @TraderMotif]

I love retweeting reply guys but I’m done now lol.

Not once have I told you to buy the dip because momentum was to the downside. While I was eating beans at the very top, your favourite CT character was calling you an idiot for not longing. The arrogance of these people..

Hopefully you’ve learnt something over the last few months.

1. Number of followers != good trader

2. Majority of CT has no idea what they’re doing. They don’t even understand the fundamentals of trading such as momentum. It’s clear as they’ve continued to buy dips. One of them will work eventually.

3. Understanding momentum is absolutely key to your success as a trader.

4. When the driving force behind a move starts to slow down, the market will head much lower than you think because buyers are no longer confident. Confidence takes time to build up again and so the bottom will also take much longer to form than you think.

I’ll leave you with some parting thoughts as we are now at a key pivot within the market.

1. Bounces will likely happen around here. Lows will be retested multiple times if this is going to be the key level of demand moving forward. It will very likely take months before we break out and up into a new trend.

2. If this zone doesn’t hold, we’re heading much lower. It’s why I’m not interested on buying blind here. I want price to prove to me that this is the bottom. There are many clues but these clues won’t reveal themselves until weeks/months down the line.

3. You’re not going to miss out. You don’t need to panic buy. You will have plenty of time to position if this zone does end up being the bottom.

4. If the market bounces, take profit. You will have ample opportunity to buy again.

5. If you’re buying spot here, where’s your invalidation? You best know exactly fly where you’re wrong and how you’re going to deal with that situation.

6. I wait for momentum to flip because then I know exactly where I’m wrong and I’m much more likely going to be right because I’m not going against momentum, I’m going with. My money is also not going to be tied up in an asset that’s going sideways for months. It’ll be put to good use elsewhere.

7. Momentum takes time to flip. In this context we’re dealing with the monthly timeframe and somewhat the quarterly timeframe. We’re talking months here. Don’t get chopped up trying to catch generational bottom.

Best of luck

[Solo Top @solotop999]

https://t.co/bmVAAm7WmP

[Castillo Trading @CastilloTrading]

The problem was never Bitcoin, it has been the Crypto Industry as a whole. $BTC has moved +712% in just over 2 years.

People saw the upward thrust in Bitcoin and expected the rest of the industy to do the same. While some memes, and a handful of newly launched projects like $HYPE $PUMP $SUI $ASTER all pulled in similar multiples as Bitcoin during that time. Most missed them who have been involved in crypto since 2017-2020ish because they thought there bags would be next. They weren't and it never happened, leaving a majority of altcoins sitting in a 4 year downtrend.

Then you have the $ZEC move which exploded +1,500%, which a majority of people missed because "why privacy" when so many other altcoins SHOULD have moved the same way. They didn't.

So, what happens now? Well personally, I think we start to get a rotation into some of those "dino coins" that have been around since the 2017 era. $BCH is one of those I think really pulls higher % upside next. Why? Well, if this type of rotation continues to happen then technically those crypto assets from back in the day would be next. At one point in time, $BCHBTC was at 0.4, meaning it was valued at almost half of what Bitcoin price was at. Not saying it has to go that high, but if it can even get a glimpse of that rotation that $ZEC I think it can pull similar multiples as we have seen from other assets from this year.

The argument will always be " $ZEC has a privacy use case and $BCH is a shitcoin " blah blah. But from the looks of how 2025 went down in the crypto industry I think most will argue none of this shit has any true value, which is that capitulation process you want to see. Price go up, will always be the true use case value and if it goes up no one actually cares what that project is doing or has done.

Placed a big bet on Bitcoin Cash back in November for the coming months and into 2026. Some will call this stupid, but I am sure the ones who bet big on $ZEC in early 2025 were also called "stupid' because "privacy had no value and is dead" because price only went down.

It's funny how this industry works and if dino coins get a real rotation, I will happily hold those over big VC coins that popped up in the 2020-2021 craze.

[Doc @docXBT]

The speculation game.

The goal in crypto is to buy the irrepressible idea, sell as it approaches saturation and never look back.

Fundamentalists make one mistake- they become consumed with the idea.

An idea is like a virus, resilient, highly contagious and the smallest seed of an idea can grow. It can grow to define or destroy you.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The biggest stock market crash of 2026.

There’s always a story behind the story. These presidents? Just puppets. The real power sits in the shadows, pulling strings while everyone else watches the show. Hidden agendas everywhere. Cryptic moves.

Nothing is what it seems.

And remember: the rich only get richer when the poor get poorer. Since when does the whole world win?

[XO @Trader_XO]

Bitcoin

Historically, whenever Bitcoin has broken below the 50-week moving average, it has often signaled a deeper move toward the 200MA or even the 300-week MA.

Since 2015, one pattern has remained consistent: Bitcoin tends to treat the 200-week MA as a major cycle support area.

Price has only dipped beneath the 300-week MA only once in its history and anything below the 200MA has been short lived for the best part of cycle lows.

If we revisit those levels, and the broader market context aligns, I’d view that zone as a high-probability buying opportunity...

Unless this time is... different.... ?

[WIZZ🥷 ( beware scammers ) @CryptoWizardd]

2 thoughts on #btc for the coming weeks

This is just my personal view... i can be wrong aswell.

Check the pictures for discription.

Overall story. #btc topped. We aint going to make new highs. But alts will outperform #btc coming months. 🤝

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

The #Bitcoin plan everyone asks about:

Bitcoin hit the low of the current box

Sideway move starts in box till 2026

In 2026, next leg down starts to 60k region

Bottom will be in September, October 2026

[Killa @KillaXBT]

The $BTC bear market bottom will be at 45-55K.

I shouldn't have leaked this.

[Motif @TraderMotif]

Experience is everything in this game and the work required to accumulate it is like nothing else I’ve ever done before. Nobody sees the work either and most people do not care.

I’ve been doing it for over 10 years and I still learn something new with each move in the market. Each moment is a lesson to take forward into the next moment and so on.

I remember when I first started out, I’d discover something new and think I’d mastered it only to then realise I knew absolutely nothing a few weeks later.

If you want to improve and give yourself the best chance of success, listen to those with experience who don’t talk in absolutes but instead give objective reasoning as to what they’re seeing.

The key word here being LISTEN.

Many of you who are new to the game (trust me I can tell in the language you use) think you know it all. I know I did when I first started out. You do not. You have a lot to learn. It’s going to take a long time to fully understand the game and it’s going to take a lot of chart time, data collecting and journalling. It’s going to cost you time and it’s bloody hard work.

This game is brutal. You’ll think you’ve cracked the code then boom, the market sits you back down. You’ll build resilience along the way. You will develop emotional intelligence. The way in which you think will change. Not just in regard to trading, but other aspects of your life. If you stick around long enough you’ll understand exactly what I’m talking about.

This game isn’t for those who are soft. It takes a certain someone to stick around and keep going. I believe anyone can do it but not everyone is willing to put in the work and be brutally honest with themselves. You will go face to face with your biggest demons and the game will challenge you like nothing else. It will reveal all of your flaws and you will have to dig deep to fix them.

The one thing you need is belief. The belief that you can do it. The belief than you can actually become a consistently profitable trader. The belief that you can win at the hardest game in the world. If you can’t visualise yourself becoming a trader then you simply won’t become one.

You want it? Work hard. Make sacrifices.

You believe you can do it? Prove it. Prove it to yourself. Forget about everyone else. Nobody cares.

Do you even like trading? Plenty of other easier ways to make money. Something to think about because if you don’t enjoy it then it’s probably not for you.

I chose to pursue a career in the hardest game in the world. Everyone laughed and thought I was mad. Maybe I am mad. You have to be a little insane to keep turning up every day in this business. But here I am, turning up everyday and I’ll be here until I’m not.

[Vegeta 🧃 @vegeta_degen]

@traderaoxam @stupid_rich_man @GVRCALLS 🤣🤣🤣

[Vegeta 🧃 @vegeta_degen]

@stupid_rich_man @GVRCALLS Kkkkkkk

[Gold @Gold_Cryptoz]

Despite the timelines incessant calls for the bottom, BTC is still grinding lower and doing its own thing

No matter which way you look at it, what’s happening now is terrible. Absolutely terrible. We’re on the verge of a second weekly close, not only below 100k this time.. but below 90k.

Each and every bull case keeps getting invalidated almost on a daily basis yet people keep hanging onto hope.

Capital preservation is the most important thing right now. Things will change but right now its like standing in front of a train

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

it's happening

[Vegeta 🧃 @vegeta_degen]

@SuperSteveFarms Agree.

[Taiki Maeda @TaikiMaeda2]

One sign of a bottom I'm waiting for is a big red day on a huge volume spike. So far we've just seen orderly selling of BTC.

Maybe this is less relevant given ETFs? Can we bottom without a big liquidation candle? Or is it simply coming soon?