Venture Trader

Investor and Trader, mainly focused on $tsla. || No financial advice, just opinions. || Follow for rare, but hopefully insightful investment + trading thoughts.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

Google Search interest in Tesla Model Y in Germany is currently exploding and other european countries (+ US) show similar results.

Prepare for exploding sales and margin numbers soon! FSD Europe changes everything!

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@hamids Such a coincidence that Tesla doesn't scale Robotaxis now and waits for 2027...

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@JOBhakdi Would love to hear your opinion here. I'm a very strong advocate against the merger, esp. now, exactly before a massive tsla bullrun like it started back in 2019.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

I’m genuinely surprised by how positive you (and Alexandra) are on a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. I see it very differently, as one of the largest value transfers from Tesla shareholders to SpaceX shareholders (esp. Elon) in history.

Elon has enough control in both companies to push this through, especially if he signals he might step back from Tesla otherwise (we’ve seen this playbook with the comp package). The timing of the Robotaxi delay fits too perfectly: he was promising major US scaling within months not long ago. Now it’s suddenly “safety” and v15. There’s been no credible technical or regulatory blocker that explains a 1–2 year hold-up. It looks like deliberate suppression of Tesla’s valuation ahead of a deal.

Tesla has enormous upside over the next few years with FSD, Optimus and energy that isn’t being allowed to materialise. Meanwhile SpaceX’s valuation exploded on a tiny free float after the IPO, a classic hype structure. A large part of that valuation is narrative, not current substance. Even a so-called “merger of equals” at these levels would still be heavily dilutive and value-destructive for TSLA holders while benefiting SpaceX shareholders (and Musk personally) the most.

The conflict of interest here is massive. I don’t understand the enthusiasm. Happy to be wrong, but this looks like a very bad outcome for Tesla minority shareholders. I think, everyone underestimates what it means for Teslas financials if fsd unsupervised is ready.

We've been waiting so many years and now the upside potential of it won't be possible to ride as it seems, but SpaceX shareholders will get it for free.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@FredLambert Elon waits for the Tesla SpaceX merger.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

I’m genuinely surprised by how positive you (and Alexandra) are on a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. I see it very differently, as one of the largest value transfers from Tesla shareholders to SpaceX shareholders (esp. Elon) in history.

Elon has enough control in both companies to push this through, especially if he signals he might step back from Tesla otherwise (we’ve seen this playbook with the comp package). The timing of the Robotaxi delay fits too perfectly: he was promising major US scaling within months not long ago. Now it’s suddenly “safety” and v15. There’s been no credible technical or regulatory blocker that explains a 1–2 year hold-up. It looks like deliberate suppression of Tesla’s valuation ahead of a deal.

Tesla has enormous upside over the next few years with FSD, Optimus and energy that isn’t being allowed to materialise. Meanwhile SpaceX’s valuation exploded on a tiny free float after the IPO, a classic hype structure. A large part of that valuation is narrative, not current substance. Even a so-called “merger of equals” at these levels would still be heavily dilutive and value-destructive for TSLA holders while benefiting SpaceX shareholders (and Musk personally) the most.

The conflict of interest here is massive. I don’t understand the enthusiasm. Happy to be wrong, but this looks like a very bad outcome for Tesla minority shareholders. I think, everyone underestimates what it means for Teslas financials if fsd unsupervised is ready.

We've been waiting so many years and now the upside potential of it won't be possible to ride as it seems, but SpaceX shareholders will get it for free.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

I’m genuinely surprised by how positive you (and Alexandra) are on a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. I see it very differently, as one of the largest value transfers from Tesla shareholders to SpaceX shareholders (esp. Elon) in history.

Elon has enough control in both companies to push this through, especially if he signals he might step back from Tesla otherwise (we’ve seen this playbook with the comp package). The timing of the Robotaxi delay fits too perfectly: he was promising major US scaling within months not long ago. Now it’s suddenly “safety” and v15. There’s been no credible technical or regulatory blocker that explains a 1–2 year hold-up. It looks like deliberate suppression of Tesla’s valuation ahead of a deal.

Tesla has enormous upside over the next few years with FSD, Optimus and energy that isn’t being allowed to materialise. Meanwhile SpaceX’s valuation exploded on a tiny free float after the IPO, a classic hype structure. A large part of that valuation is narrative, not current substance. Even a so-called “merger of equals” at these levels would still be heavily dilutive and value-destructive for TSLA holders while benefiting SpaceX shareholders (and Musk personally) the most.

The conflict of interest here is massive. I don’t understand the enthusiasm. Happy to be wrong, but this looks like a very bad outcome for Tesla minority shareholders. I think, everyone underestimates what it means for Teslas financials if fsd unsupervised is ready.

We've been waiting so many years and now the upside potential of it won't be possible to ride as it seems, but SpaceX shareholders will get it for free.

[Eric Weinstein @ericweinstein]

We hear it as consumption. But it's almost all for allocation. This is a huge issue we need to get past.

Name anyone you would rather see allocate 1T+.

Well done.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@Hitchslap297178 @Jackkk @LewisHamilton Try to understand why wealth linits are the opposite of helping people, it's not that hard and AI will explain it in very simple terms.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@gerhard_mangott Vorsicht, Herr Mangott, Ihr Account wird für Scam verwendet, irgendwer hat offensichtlich Zugriff:

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@TSLAFanMtl Everything is on hold until V15 in early 2027.

It seems we have to be honest with ourselves, V14.xx is nice, but statistically probably still not safe enough.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

The merger would be a terrible deal for Tesla shareholders right now.

Tesla is potentially entering its most explosive growth phase over the next 1–3 years with Robotaxis, FSD, and Optimus. Meanwhile, SpaceX will almost certainly go through an IPO hype cycle followed by a major cool-off period, as virtually every mega-hyped IPO does.

Revisit the idea in 3–5 years and I’d probably support it. But today? That outcome would massively benefit just one single shareholder at the cost of all others.

[Jeff Lutz 🔋 @thejefflutz]

@XH_Lee23 Bro

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@WR4NYGov With Switzerland you wouldn't risk a lot I would say.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@Investanswers I really don't understand anything anymore, sometimes it's like Elons statements on the earnings call just have nothing to do with reality!? 🤔

How's this even legal!?

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@wholemars Competition?

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@paulg That was always my bull-case.

We'll do everything while the car drives us wherever we want to go. Sleeping, working, sex, video games, whatever and it couldn't be more comfortable and relaxing.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

The problem is, nothing has changed since then and fsd seems to be ready.

So, what's the reason for the delay and Elon suddenly wants to see 10x instead of 2x human safety level for scale...?

In my opinion the only answer here is the SpaceX-Tesla merger, which substantially benefits Elon as long as tsla stock doesn't skyrocket.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

I’m concerned that Elon may be delaying large-scale robotaxi deployment to push through a SpaceX–Tesla merger first.

At this stage—right on the verge of unsupervised FSD, a massive robotaxi rollout, Optimus and peak SpaceX IPO hype—that would, in my view, significantly disadvantage Tesla shareholders, but they will nevertheless follow him and sell their shares for very cheap.

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@elonmusk @yunta_tsai If you would scale Robotaxi massively right now, it would do the same!

Why are you hesitant? V14.3 is good enough!

[Venture Trader @venture_trader_]

@thejefflutz Yes, the only question that remains is, why they nevertheless want to scale Robotaxis now massively.

I think Elon should be confronted with it, because in my opinion it's just an excuse for whatever to wait another 1.5 years for V15, that's crazy!