Gautam v

Proud Hindu, Averse to MK Gandhi's philosophy, Terror HAS a religion, Free my temples from Govt control, Only scientific religion is Santan Dharma.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

#ivermectin
The prophylaxis protocol that can help you ride all covid waves and save lives of ur loved ones. Embrace it if you r in doubt of taking the first generation COVID vaccines. Remember the dosage 400 microgram/ kg of body weight. Visit @drakchaurasia ji's TL for details

[dr a k chaurasia @drakchaurasia]

@vgautam76 1. 24mg can be taken as single dose. no problem
2. your in laws can take it safely. probably, in 3-4 months, vacs will be useless
3. 7 yrs kid, no problem. same dosage.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@avarakai He is a liability now. Should be shunted out in cabinet reshuffle.

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

The Yen Shock That Could Put Markets on Life Support

The scary part here is that Japan may be forced to save itself in a way that hurts everyone else.

For decades, Japan was the world’s cheap funding source. Near zero rates let investors borrow yen, sell yen, buy higher yielding dollar assets, and park capital in U.S. Treasuries, equities, credit, private markets, and emerging markets. That worked as long as Japanese yields stayed suppressed and the yen stayed weak in an orderly way.

That regime is now breaking. Japan’s 10 year yield near 2.8% is a historic reset after a generation of near zero financing. The BOJ is raising rates, the yen is under pressure, households are getting squeezed by import costs, and Japan is carrying one of the largest debt burdens in the developed world.

But the key nuance is this. Japan’s deeper disease is still deflation. Aging demographics, weak domestic demand, fragile real wages, and decades of low growth still pull Japan back toward disinflation. The immediate symptom is weak yen imported inflation. That is what makes this so dangerous. Japan may be forced to act hawkish against imported inflation even though the underlying economy is not strong enough to handle real tightening.

The Historical Warning

In 1998, the yen carry trade unwound after the Asian crisis and LTCM, and Japan moved toward zero rates. In 2008, forced deleveraging turned carry trades into liquidation machines, and the BOJ cut after the crisis intensified. In 2024, even a smaller BOJ normalization shock caused a yen rally and global equity volatility.

Japan often eases after carry trade blowups, but not before the damage. It cuts later because a violent yen rally, falling equities, tighter credit, exporter pain, and recession risk eventually hit Japan too.

So when people say Japan will just cut again, they are missing the sequence. The danger is not where the BOJ ends up. The danger is the window between hawkish yen defense and the later reversal. That is when the liquidation happens.

The Policy Whipsaw

Japan’s 1st problem is a weak yen and imported inflation, so it may be forced hawkish. Japan’s 2nd problem is that the hawkish turn can detonate the carry trade. Japan’s 3rd problem is that once the unwind becomes recessionary, the BOJ may have to pause, restart bond support, or cut again.

That is the nightmare loop. Tighten to save the yen, break the carry trade, then ease after the damage has already moved through global markets.

The Worst Case

The real nightmare here is stocks falling while Treasury yields rise. That breaks the normal hedge and turns the world’s safest collateral into the source of stress.

USDJPY pushes toward 170. Japan decides the yen decline is disorderly. The Ministry of Finance intervenes hard. The BOJ backs it with hawkish language or faster hikes. The yen surges. Everyone short yen has to buy it back. Carry trades unwind. Investors sell what they can, not what they want.

U.S. tech, credit, crypto, emerging markets, and Treasuries all become sources of liquidity.

Then Japanese institutions look home. If JGB yields are attractive again, why keep taking currency risk in U.S. bonds? Japan does not need to dump its Treasury portfolio to cause damage. Markets price at the margin. A $100 billion to $300 billion shift at the wrong moment can matter when Treasury liquidity is already fragile.

Mortgage rates rise. CRE refinancing gets worse. Bank securities books take pain. Credit spreads widen. Treasury auctions weaken. The Fed gets trapped because cutting into foreign liquidation and inflation risk looks reckless, while refusing to cut lets financial conditions tighten into recession.

Japan does not need to intend harm. The damage comes from self defense. A forced Japanese stabilization campaign could strengthen the yen, pull capital home, remove marginal demand from U.S. Treasuries, detonate the carry trade, and hit America at the exact layer that matters most.

The collateral layer.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@avarakai But both support E20 blending

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@akleghari Kya hua? Bum khatam ho gaye?

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@TheRudraJha @RShivshankar Needs a Category 5. Communist

[PlaneCrazy @IXGguy]

@RShivshankar Indian traitors of the year list. Save it for the purges.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@drakchaurasia Seeing such things nowadays looks like a luxury to me 😊

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

Cc @drakchaurasia
Zero oil somewhere near you 😊

[Shubham Sahu 🇮🇳 @ivShubham_INN]

0% oil सिर्फ नमक बना रहे देशी चखना मात्र 10/-रु में

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@ZEE5India @ZeeTV What's wrong with you?? Seeing condom ads since 7 pm on ZEE tv. Kids are around watching TV with us. Either you take down these ads till 10 pm or I will be forced to unsubscribe your entire package.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@chenabism Panini was also a Hindu. Are you a hindu?

[LestWeForgetIndia🇮🇳 @LestWeForgetIN]

#LestWeForgetIndia🇮🇳 The Living Legend #IndianBrave Hony Capt Bana Singh, Param Vir Chakra @banasinghpvc and his incredible feat & valour.

Thirty-nine years ago, #OnThisDay 26 June in 1987, the #BravestOfTheBrave and his team recaptured Quaid Post at 21,000 ft in Siachen Glacier.

In a fitting tribute, the recaptured post was renamed Bana Top in his honour. 🏵️

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@ChouhanShivraj Namaste sir.
Very important: India may experience 40% rain deficit. Its time to produce more millets like jowar, ragi etc. They grow in dry region and will perfectly compensate for rain deficit.
Cc: @OfficeofSSC @AgriGoI

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@singhvarun @SquareFeatIndia Hi Varun. This judgement talks about service charges. What about repair and maintenance and also major repair charges? Is there a judgement for these charges too?

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@avarakai What's US interest in Tibet? Did I miss any of your hashtags where you have explained?

[Monica Verma @TrulyMonica]

The same Indian media that spreads leftist/Islamist/western propaganda to target India over caste is explaining how China didn’t have castes but simply occupation-based divisions in their society.

CCP’s B*tches 🐕

[Acharya Manish Ji @ChikitsaGuru]

Dengue, Malaria या Viral Fever के शुरुआती लक्षण दिखें तो क्या करें? 🌡️🦟👇
Acharya Manish Ji से जानिए बुखार के दौरान सही diet, hydration, rest और lifestyle care का महत्व। साथ ही समझिए किन foods को avoid करना चाहिए और recovery के दौरान शरीर को support करने वाली पारंपरिक wellness practices के बारे में।

Fever care, Dengue awareness और healthy recovery habits को बेहतर समझने के लिए यह वीडियो ज़रूर देखें।

अभी Video देखें 🎥
https://t.co/Sh0nyccrSJ

[Arun Pudur @arunpudur]

‼️Truly China is living in 2100 - in debt.

Upper Caste Shi has taken 60 Trillion ¥ in hidden debt apart from what is already openly known.

Lower Caste Nong, Gong and Shangs are being forced to pay their debts. This is why they eat dogs, cats, cockroaches and drink cow dung.

[Gautam v @vgautam76]

@telegram @fusion89211 Indian Government is made of smartest Indian people and not Italian. So shut your trap.

[Sniper @avarakai]

Since people are exposing China, do take some time to watch this.

"The China Hustle"

You'll not regret.

https://t.co/F6KElob2xE

[Navroop Singh @TheNavroopSingh]

MoU from the Israeli Sources out now ! Contains all the terms of US surrender 👇🏻

U.S. Concessions & what Iran Gets

📍End of U.S. naval blockade on Iran upon signing of MoU.
📍Minimum $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.
📍Immediate waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports.
📍Release of frozen Iranian assets & sanctioned funds.
📍Termination of primary, secondary, UN and IAEA-linked sanctions.
📍Acceptance of Iranian uranium enrichment under a future framework.
📍Withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iran's vicinity after final deal.
📍Lebanon explicitly included in the ceasefire arrangement.
📍Future Hormuz governance discussions involving Iran, Oman and Gulf states after 60 Days.

What the U.S. Gets is JCPOA 2.0

📍Iranian commitment not to build nuclear weapons.
📍Freeze/status quo on Iran's nuclear program during negotiations.
📍IAEA-supervised handling of enriched uranium stockpiles.
📍Reopening of Hormuz shipping lanes.
📍Regional ceasefire and de-escalation.
📍Monitoring and verification mechanism.

Notably absent are Israeli concerns Neo-Con Points:

📍No Regime change.
📍Dismantlement of enrichment facilities.
📍No Ballistic missile restrictions.
📍No Restrictions on regional proxy networks.
📍No Major reductions in conventional military capability.

Iran has won, US bent a knee and a strategic disaster for Bibi Netanyahu. Lebanon made part of the deal and Trump again mocked him. Even Lindsey Graham fell in line with the MoU.

Today Trump defended Iran's right to ballistic missile defence & even civilan nuclear use (i.e. 3.67% enrichment) which is nothing but JCPOA 2.0 but with extendex Enrichment Time Line limits on Iran that would be there in Final Deal.

Covered this in detail in our blog/article today on X & Niti Shastra. Its global impact !!