JR

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@sadams_s @1goodtern The statistics available are not as complete as they were and need more interpretation (perhaps that is an inevitable change, perhaps correct or not). I have some confidence that there is no intent to wilfully mislead however, or no proof of that. It may not be everyone's view.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@sadams_s @1goodtern I honestly couldn't say either. I think I prefer to see evidence that the official figures can't be trusted (public trust in health leaders is important), so just wanted to suggest the exchange posted is in itself not that evidence, and could be in line with the stats we have.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@BuDs_UK @MartinThornber @PaulMainwood Bristoliver did some work on looking at this last year. In summary, the change in testing resulted in a c.10% drop in hospital cases found, as a one-off 'leap' down. Before and after that are not comparable (or only with that adjustment); patterns since, so Paul's graph, are.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@DrPaulTeed @BristOliver The England Coast Path will include some newly-opened paths in the SW (they look like improvements, e.g. lines closer to coast). I guess they'll only call the ECP fully open once all are in place.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@PaulMainwood @mikewwilson3 The key to that is surely that it is very plausible that (at least) 45% just don't use buses and trains; those that do could be entirely 'opposers' on that poll. Much as those closing nightclubs crossover very little with those attending nightclubs. (But still an odd poll).

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@CarlHoefer1 @PaulMainwood Hi Carl, it's just a bigger region (total population). Hence higher numbers (the chart doesn't show rates/pop).

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@tapas321 @jdevans141 @HSJEditor @PaulMainwood Time may tell but perhaps this might cause positivity to rise (albeit as a step-change) even at a time when cases were level? - taking out asymptomatic hosp testing (average prevalence) while leaving in symptomatic (~above average) would have that effect.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@greg_travis @john_actuary @DonEford @jburnmurdoch I think a UK thesis (from several experts) can be distilled into: there are very many excess UK deaths due to COVID, and in 2022 that is still a contributor but there may be others, especially limited healthcare. *That* is partly a result of COVID, and also other factors. My try!

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@DonEford @greg_travis @john_actuary @jburnmurdoch As well to be honest! I think the >10% claim is unevidenced and probably not consistent with absenteeism rates for a start (although it may depend on definitions of 'acute'), and so not obviously simple enough for the Razor either, but happy not to argue the point.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@greg_travis @john_actuary @DonEford @jburnmurdoch Thanks, fair enough. Different backgrounds, different usages. What is 'simplest' here could be argued, but I take the Razor point back.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@DonEford @FinchTH @jburnmurdoch @john_actuary It may have been. But I don't think the block can really have come as a surprise! (I'm not sure about 'NO immunity to future variants...', btw. Perhaps 'limited' would be fairer, or 'There may be NO...'?).

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@DonEford @FinchTH @jburnmurdoch @john_actuary I wonder if it's anything to do with your opening gambit of 'minimizing clown' and 'completely dishonest'?

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@TaraCivicHealth @JeremyFarrar I think it's a reasonable line (it's mine too). The rationale is not about self-protection but of others - on public transport we assume that some others may have no choice but to be there, so we mask in sympathy with their fears. In pubs we assume people are there by choice.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@BristOliver There's also the simple point in response that - unless LC cases are all permanent (some may be, perhaps not all) - recoveries might cause those numbers to level or fall. As might periods with fewer initial infections than the last year.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@ritwik_priya @RufusSG @dsquareddigest Yes. If BA1-2 reinfection was a huge concern, that sub-15% figure would be shooting up this month as the surge of Dec BA1 cases is added to the 90+-day pool. And it isn't really.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@PaulWri89662714 @BristOliver No-one in this thread has said that (happy with the direction of travel doesn't = considers the destination reached). And no-one in this thread has killed anyone.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@BristOliver While there may be a argument (widely made here!) that fewer test or fewer report +ves, that would have to be a major change *since last week* (rather than since the LFT changes etc) to refute the idea that cases are now falling. I don't think I buy that.

[JR @ViewfinderJr]

@127J_H Must soon be a caught behind done this way; whip one in over the bails 'just before crossing the rope'.